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Ukraine Int’l 737-800 (PS752 IKA-KBP) crashes on takeoff from Tehran, 8 January 2020

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Old Jan 9, 2020, 3:09 pm
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Ukraine Int’l 737-800 (PS752 IKA-KBP) crashes on takeoff from Tehran, 8 January 2020

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Old Jan 10, 2020, 10:10 pm
  #121  
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I appreciate the honesty of the Iranian government. It is a tough spot to backtrack in, but the victims deserve the truth.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 1:03 am
  #122  
 
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
I appreciate the honesty of the Iranian government. It is a tough spot to backtrack in, but the victims deserve the truth.
So you think they decided to "come clean" for honorable reasons?...and NOT just because the evidence was going to show them to be liars? Very generous of you.... It was only earlier TODAY that I read a report quoting Iran as claiming that the cooperation between their military and their ATC made a shootdown like this "impossible".
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 1:26 am
  #123  
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Originally Posted by trooper
So you think they decided to "come clean" for honorable reasons?...and NOT just because the evidence was going to show them to be liars? Very generous of you.... It was only earlier TODAY that I read a report quoting Iran as claiming that the cooperation between their military and their ATC made a shootdown like this "impossible".
I think it far better than the Ukrainian insurgents/Russian government not wanting to admit what happened to MH17. Iran could have played the same card here, deny deny deny.

I do think they should have owned up much sooner, and I was fairly convinced we would never hear this from them. All the posturing, about big fat lies and what have you not did not really put a positive light on it. But, it is closure, closure that should have come earlier.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 4:03 am
  #124  
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Originally Posted by trooper
So you think they decided to "come clean" for honorable reasons?...and NOT just because the evidence was going to show them to be liars? Very generous of you.... It was only earlier TODAY that I read a report quoting Iran as claiming that the cooperation between their military and their ATC made a shootdown like this "impossible".
Oh yes, on Friday morning, Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran's civil aviation authority said it (missile hit) was impossible due to close coordination between Iran's air defence and the civil aviation department.

"What is obvious for us, and what we can say with certainty, is that no missile hit the plane," Abedzadeh told reporters in Tehran [Ref. aljazeera.com]

It seems that the long-gone Bagdad Bob finally has gotten a successor.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 4:27 am
  #125  
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So the government allows in those most affected by the situation personally, including most of therelevant government authorities, to get involved in the matter and corrects the idea it had initially believed or wanted to believe and yet they are still condemned over the situation. As the saying goes, no good deed goes unpunished. This thread is a case in point.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 6:13 am
  #126  
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Originally Posted by Nayef
They were bringing over foreign specialists (including Canadian officials), so the jig was going to be up one way or another.
Yeah, I was wondering how they were going to allow foreign specialists and still lie about the cause of the crash. It is obviously a good thing that they have come clean. What it means for the future, no one really knows at this point.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 7:56 am
  #127  
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So this is more than a little rich: the Ukrainian airline VP today blamed the Iranians for keeping the airport open. He has a point: the Iranians should definitely have shut down commercial aviation in their country that morning. But that doesn't mean that UIA had to operate the flight! As I said days ago, the airline is contributorily negligent for operating that flight that morning. Based on what any halfway intelligent observer could have deduced based on the facts at the time, it was a totally irresponsible call. Hopefully, other airlines learn from this tragic lesson.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ___________________

UIA vice president Igor Sosnovsky told a news conference in Kiev on Saturday that Tehran should have closed the airport due to the escalation of regional tensions following the US assassination of a top Iranian general.

"It's absolutely irresponsible," Sosnovsky said, accusing Iran of failing to protect ordinary citizens while "playing at war."

"They were obliged to close the airport. Obliged! Then shoot as much as you like."

https://www.afp.com/en/news/1272/ukr...g-doc-1nm3ef10
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 7:57 am
  #128  
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Originally Posted by trooper
So you think they decided to "come clean" for honorable reasons?...and NOT just because the evidence was going to show them to be liars? Very generous of you.... It was only earlier TODAY that I read a report quoting Iran as claiming that the cooperation between their military and their ATC made a shootdown like this "impossible".
Nobody thinks that. What most are saying is that they are glad that they did come clean.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 9:04 am
  #129  
 
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FR24 blog has plots of the flight as well as others in the hours before its departure. There doesn't seem to be anything unusual about the Ukraine flight's departure path, altitude, etc. by comparison.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/u...f-from-tehran/
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 12:07 pm
  #130  
 
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I am sorry but I just can't stop crying. It's devastating. My whole county was shaken by this. I flew with some of the cabin crew, and I find it hard to accept that they are gone. I don't care that Iran accepted the responsibility. I just wish it never happened.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 3:56 pm
  #131  
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Statements from the relevant section’s military commander and from the Iranian President:

https://us.yahoo.com/news/iranian-co...112006118.html

There is a lot of regret and sadness all around about this awful tragedy.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 5:38 pm
  #132  
 
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The inevitable rush to judgement is quite depressing to see, how short people’s memories are

I saw this posted in the parallel thread on PPRUNE and IMO it sums up the situation beautifully

Originally Posted by fdr
...it should be within the risk analysis of a military to comprehend what is the extent of mayhem that is unleashed with the commencement of action. That goes for all sides.
  1. That there would be retaliation of some form following the targeted assassination of a foreign government person is foreseeable.
  2. That the retaliation response would incur a response was a stated and expected outcome, That resulted in the twitter storm on the matter from one side, discussing action including attacks on cultural sites.
  3. That the missile crew are under stress, and probably fatigued will be highlighted in the investigation.
  4. The missile crews themselves are probable targets for SEAD suppression attacks had the retaliatory response occurred in that area, they had a reason to be concerned.
  5. The spin up time on the missile system is around 8 seconds, not much time to correct a failure in SA arising from any anomalous observation, or any observation that is erroneously assessed as anomalous. In this status, a simple hiccup of a power supply to the ADSB OUT signal would be enough to start off a disastrous response.



A B738 departing from a nearby airport, climbing out at a sedate speed and altitude by no means looks like a air strike, yet, the wreckage stands in mute testament to the failure of the human side of critical decisions made under uncertainty and under stress. It is not unique, it is not dependent on creed, race, religion, it happens because we have humans in the system, and as often as humans are remarkable in their adept handling of complex issues, we collectively fail, and bad stuff happens. The 3C is always frail and limited by the time available to intervene before an irreversible action is taken. The only two ways to avoid these issues is to remove civil traffic from regions of warfare at any level, (not going to happen, that covers more fo the world than not) or to stop wars, which was discounted by Plato, "only the dead have seen the end of war".




This time, it was Irans fearsome error, last time, it was Russia's, the time before, well that was Ukrainian. Going back, past the the USS Vincennes, there was the DC9 off the left coast of Italy, civil planes have been attacked all over the world, Cathay Pacific, KAL (twice) and almost countless others. On too many occasions, the civil aircraft is deliberately targets, as furtherance of some agenda. Many of these aircraft have had sophisticated SSR identifying their status, yet it continues to be disregarded, which remains the fundamental problem, the non combatant status gets lost in the noise.




Unless we quarantine the airspace around hot spots, these events will continue to happen all too often, breaking hearts all round.
”let he who is without sin cast the first stone”
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 6:28 pm
  #133  
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Some in the Iranian government told some in Europe late on Wednesday or Thursday that they were sure an Iranian missile or two had hit the plane. What they didn’t know for sure at the time or before was whether the plane was on fire before or after the first missile was fired and if they thought the plane was a foreign missile or drone coming in against them. Welcome to the “fog of war” when there isn’t even a declared war. Shooting in a fog comes with heightened risk, including that of even “friendly fire”. Sadly. this UIA flight tragedy is an example of the danger that comes from ramped up conflict and paranoia by and from those with the proverbial “big guns” and an ability and willingness to use them.

It will be interesting to see if governments learn a lesson from this incident too or if they just continue to carry on with business as usual .... even as it comes with continuing risk of making passengers into “collateral damage”. Given this kind of stuff has been going on for decades, I suspect that this won’t be the last time many of us see a passenger jet fired upon by military forces ... or even the last time we see a case of shooting upon one’s own plane by one’s own military forces.
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Old Jan 11, 2020, 8:22 pm
  #134  
 
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Originally Posted by Andriyko
I am sorry but I just can't stop crying. It's devastating. My whole county was shaken by this. I flew with some of the cabin crew, and I find it hard to accept that they are gone. I don't care that Iran accepted the responsibility. I just wish it never happened.
I'm so, so, so sorry for your loss. I hope with time there will be some sense of closure, Please accept my condolences for you, your friends, and Ukraine.
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Old Jan 13, 2020, 1:48 am
  #135  
 
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Avoiding Iran's airspace

Do you know which airlines continue to fly over Iran's airspace after the tragedy and which one are avoiding it?
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