My bet is that if oneworld loses another partner (the first being CP), it will be Aer Lingus. It seems the drop in trans-Atlantic service has hit EI so hard that it cannot fund the layoffs it needs to make to remain viable. The Irish government isn't too keen on lobbyng the EU to supply aid.
EI won't fail. It'll get bailed out, or restructured.
They just announced plans to lay off another 2,500 people, or 40% of their workforce. I think you'll see a number of European routes hit with further reduced service (perhaps moving to a quasi-low cost, Ryanair type of service), but the transatlantic routes will remain the primary profit center. EI won't become a OW casualty, rather they'll become increasingly irrelevant to the alliance as a bit-player.
The Irish government won't let Aer Lingus fail - it will survive (in one form or another) because the Irish economy is simply too dependant on the national carrier.
The Irish government won't let Aer Lingus fail - it will survive (in one form or another) because the Irish economy is simply too dependant on the national carrier.
From the article, it seems the majority of EI's profits come from trans-Atlantic travel which had already declined considerably pre 11 September and has only worsened since. Similarly, BA's (over)dependence on premium trans-Atlantic traffic for its profit will also taking a big hit to its bottom line.