I know people have spoken about this before - but I don't think recently. Back in 2010(ish) - it seemed like Hainan was pretty sure to join; they were actively looking to join an alliance, and were (and still are) the last major unaligned airline in mainland China - where OW currently has no members.

I would love to see HU join, and as far as I can see, they would be (almost) perfect for OW:

• They codeshare with AA, AB, and S7 (and previously QF and JL; they also have an interlining agreement with BA) - covering a lot of their (extremely limited) long haul network
• They have an extensive domestic network in China - which is what OW really needs imo - this would allow OW passengers to transfer between HU-operated dom. flights and OW-operated intl. flights at several major hubs in mainland China
• They offer a good product (especially when compared against other Chinese carriers) - and are a 5* airline

Obviously, Chinese airlines are in a mess when it comes to alliances (with MU having joined ST, and CX and CA's partnership) - and because of the HNA group's involvement with HK Airlines and HK express, Cathay certainly would not be pleased if HU were to join OW. However, Cathay doesn't really cover mainland China in the way that Hainan does.

Is there a chance of HU joining OW? - to me it seems quite logical (or maybe I'm not thinking straight because I just really want them to join?). I'd be interested to know what people think!

CX doesn't cover mainland, but Dragon Air does.

As you noted people have speculated about this before. See the discussions in this thread:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/onewo...l?highlight=hu

It does not sound logical, IMHO.

HU has a significant interest at HX, which is CX's competitor in HKG. Regardless on how the competition is, if HU join OW, it will make the relationship awkward.

Also as many CX's traffic are from the Mainland, a OW partner in the Mainland will definitely impact CX revenue.

It is more easier and less tiresome shopping around for the best alternative, price and itinerary wise rather than locking yourself in an allianced carrier. Besides, for the majority of the flights for a given carrier in a given alliance you most likely won't receive miles or a minimum amount After running around China for twenty years i have yet to meet someone getting status in alliances mainly through domestic flying, and if one's really want to he will quickly discover all the nonsense about China as a cheaper place to live and work . OW at the moment is well covered in the main regional areas the same as the other two alliances, so i do not see many advantages in inducing a local entrant, esxcept getting into some third-and-lower tier cities.

I don't think HX is much of a direct competitor to CX/KA - it is much more of an LCC - and, I might add, therefore somewhat at odds with oneworld's aim to be the premier alliance for people travelling on business (note - "on", not "in")

As to making the relationship awkward, or impacting revenue - I am not so sure. After all, the entry of QR into OW potentially threatened the incumbents' Europe-Asia traffic, yet BA sponsored their entry and CX immediately set up extensive code-sharing.

Just a quick fact, many Elites in Air China and China Southern are flying domestic solely. They fly on a daily basis on business.

As far as QR/CX, I think it was a natural fit. Geographically, DOH is a much better transit point going to EU as opposed to going to LHR and potentially backtracking.

OW certainly lacks a partner in Asia. Even if JAL and CX are in OW I feel they're not covering the area as good as Star and Skyteam are doing.

Based on this thread and other threads it always comes down to CX who is assumed to be blocking potential new partners.

I don't understand how this fits with the fact that CX is offering peanuts instead of miles to OW partners.

AA : 0% miles for all not full fare economy travel
AB & BA not much better.
AY seems to be the exception with at least 50% miles.

But 0% is something not often seen in OW...
This indicated CX's attitude is they don't need OW to drive traffic and CX is able to handle competition in Asia without the need of an alliance.

As far as the miles go, it depends. LA, RJ, AY, UL, you're able to earn miles on a lot of fare codes banking it on MPC.

You look at AAdvantage. They are giving miles out like it's going out of fashion. It's good but look at the consequences. For example, you were able to get a seat for 55k in J class on a DFW-HKG flight. Now, if you want to be guaranteed a seat, it will cost you in excess of 170k and that's oneway!

You look at JL's program. It's VERY VERY HARD to earn miles on cheap fare tickets.

The MPC program is indeed more generous. AY is very generous to it's partners, they also offer 100% miles for all travel on AA. Of course, this way around, it's LA, RJ, AY, UL, .. in this case that need to buy the miles from MPC. So it doesn't cost a dime for CX.

Regarding JAL. Had a look at their program. Indeed lowest level 30% miles. Comes close to big EU programs like Flying Blue and M&M where deep discount economy earns 25% miles. Peanuts. You would excpect higher rates of success when booking awards but this is not true either. (at least not for flying blue).

JAL is stingy on miles for both it's own members and partners. (I compared with AA, earnings are same for JAL & AA members). CX's earning levels are higher for their own members than they're for partners.

You can not blame CX for 0%. AA is just as guilty as CX. In the end, the two comes to a conclusion that AA will not award mileage on CX's discount economy class. However, you should also evaluate the following facts:
1>, Almost all CX's north American routes can be booked under AA code. So AA flyers can earn AA miles and EQMs when fly CX
2>, BA and AB flyers may only earn 25% of mileage when fly CX. BA members have a great advantage. BA members can earn miles and Tier Points on every revenue class ticket of CX, which members from CX can even not earn anything from! That includes OQSN four subclass. CX changed rules a little bit this year so its member can earn few miles.

There is no perfect mileage programme. Airlines have to keep some reserves to encourage its own members to fly its own metal. As a customer, you certainly have a choice to choose the programme suites you best.

You look at JL, they have DM and Premier which are the same as Emerald. You need to fly 100k and 80k respectively. Half of that has to be on JL and it's so da-- hard to earn it.

Now, going back to whether or not HU will join ow? As long as CX is in ow, I think it will be very difficult for HU to join. PRC will always be the weak link in OW. Yes, KA flies to quite a few destinations in PRC, but it's the domestic portion that's lacking.

Direct or not, there are still competitions.

I am not sure what you are trying to point out.

HX is a HU affiliate. So by joining OW, HU will create a love-hate relationship:

HU-CX (Love - strategic partners under OW); HX-CX (Hate - competitors)

So to HU, what is more important, OW or HX?

Going to fly business in domestic routes is no proposition for my employer because of the far cheaper price of the economy class and now the chance to take HST. Many others are in my situation as well, guess this is the price one has to pay to the bs mantra of China as a cheap place and as "huge" market.