TheMoose

Certain aircraft types are based at certain locations.

Pilots are based in locations where "their" aircraft type is based.

Flight attendants are based all over without regard to any specific type of aircraft (witness BOS, LAX, etc. bases for FAs. -- no aircraft are "based" there).

I think this is just a nasty rumor without much factual basis. Aside from all that, does DL really know the economy more than 12 months out to have already decided to cancel this route? Could we see frequency or equipment shifts? Sure. But I think it's way too far out to start planning on this "rumor".

RobertH

The title of this thread is extremely misleading. Moderator - can you put a ? at the end of the title?

MikeMpls

Information from flight attendants regarding long-term company plans needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Occasionally, however, they are right. For example, in 2006 we were told by an FA on NRT-DTW that they would be getting rid of WorldPerks.

worldexpress

mod., thanks for correcting the misspell in the title. it was bugging the heck out of me for the first couple of days when it appeared.

lougord99

The 2000 census tab for the MSA of Minneapolis-St. Paul is about 2,900,000 with an estimate of 3,200,000 for year 2008.

The 2000 census tab for the MSA of St. Louis is about 2,700,000 with an estimate of 2,800,000 for 2008.

Not much difference in size.

worldexpress

size of the population doesn't give you a snap shot of the regional economy which probably is a better indicator for the feasibility of businesses such as airlines.

St. Louis has 8 firms in the 2009 Fortune 500 list and the Twin Cities 18. Every annual list of Inc. 500/5000 fastest growing private companies contain, by about 3:2, more Twin Cities metro area firms than those in St. Louis metro area.

Comparison of the Cities and St. Louis metro region isn't apple to apple in a hub related debate.

UAL awesome

Knowing Delta, they'll take all the Northwest planes and send them to Atlanta.

drsan

Simpler is better...ask any ex-TW FFer and you will get the same characterization.

AA started cutting back quickly after the purchase; routes/network are one thing, service cutbacks and 'adjustments' are another.



That is incorrect. As cited on another thread...

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/s...29/story1.html

WN continues to expand and by the end of 2009 or early/mid 2010, should eclipse AA as the dominant carrier.


You have a right to your opinion. In my opinion, MSP is on the same path that STL was, nearly 10 years ago. The signs are all there.

FWAAA

That's just false. Unless, of course, you count AA's 20% systemwide schedule reduction implemented on September 14, 2001 that continued until the schedules were largely restored in 2002.

AA's purchase of TWA's assets closed in April, 2001 and AA made no substantial changes to TWA's STL operation until the days following September 11, 2001, when it chopped the schedules in every AA city. Once the AA systemwide schedules were restored in 2002, AA maintained the STL schedule at almost the same level as existed in early 2001. AA did retire the DC-9s following September 11, 2001 and during the depths of its financial crisis in 2002 unloaded the replacement 717s. Nevertheless, the entire AA system shared in the reductions that those fleet reductions caused.

No, it's not incorrect. WN's STL operation was built up during the period prior to AA's purchase in 2001. Following the 2003 schedule reductions, WN added a few flights, including an additional nonstop to LAX (which was subsequently removed). WN is about the same size at STL as it was in April, 2001 and the article does not contradict that fact:

AA didn't announce the TWA purchase until early January, 2001, so 1999 size comparisons are irrelevant. Additionally, with AA's cutbacks in late 2003 (and those that have followed that pullback), STL's passenger counts have fallen, so of course WN's market share has increased.

No doubt WN will eventually become the dominant carrier at STL, much like at BWI, MDW, LAS, BUR, OAK and SJC.

You may very well be right that MSP will suffer the same fate as STL. After all, TWA wasn't making any money with its massive hub operation at STL for several reasons. Likewise, the fortress hub at MSP didn't create enough profits to keep NW out of bankruptcy in 2005 (nor did it prevent the prior financial problems suffered by NW in the early 1990s). So perhaps MSP will be downsized so traffic more closely matches O&D. STLd? I doubt it.

formeraa

FWAAA is right on STL. I know that many ex-TWA and STLers are very upset, but the cutbacks were primarily due to the effects of 9/11 and the economic downturn unrelated to 9/11. Remember that the stock market started downward well before 9/11.

If 9/11 and the economic downturn had not happened, I believe that STL would still be an AA hub (albeit slightly smaller than TW's operation) and most of the TW employees would still be employed. AA correctly envisioned STL as a relief valve between ORD and DFW. AA just didn't envision 9/11 and the economic downturn (otherwise they would NEVER have purchased TW).

pbarnette

I would also note that if this rumor is true, that it is not inconsistent with NW's vision for MSP before the merger. MSP was never a major international hub. At the end of 2007, it was only the 18th busiest gateway in the US and it has never served even 3m international pax. Now, I recognize losing NRT would be visible, given that it is one of only 3-1/2 long-haul destinations that pre-merger NW served from MSP, but that they served so few destinations should tell you something about NW's assessment of its viability as a true international hub.

Phil2016

We're still just a little bent out of shape over losing nonstop 747 service to NYC! What, you can't make money with a 1/4 full 747 on a 900 mile route? Those were the days though!

worldexpress

so MSP loses NRT (ok..a big if).. it's gaining STL on WN in 2010! Somewhat ironic that there's this big MSP-STL debate going on here.

SNCntry32

What signs?

MSP was a fortress hub and according to DOT data it was Northwest's most profitable hub. MSP dose not have the facilities to be a major hub for international flights. Two caracoules in international arrivals? It makes a better domestic hub.

I think if MSP were to EVER loose NRT and LHR, you would see the state offering some subsides to other airlines to start the routes.

MSP will contiunue to be a viable hub for Delta. Most of the cuts we have seen in the new system have been at CVG. There are also a lot of Fourtune 500 companies there and small businesses.

azj

Not to mention, MSP was never seen as the major international gateway. That title was bestowed upon DTW. MSP was a prime domestic fortress hub with key links to international destinations.