I've got a NRT-DTW flight next Monday (Sept. 5) and, for the hell of it, and I'm trying to calculate my odds of an op-up. The back 2 coach sections in the 747-400 are nearly full while the elite section is maybe 30% occupied. I have learned, however, through painful experience that this emptiness means nothing. The first time around, I assumed it meant I had a row to myself, only to arrive at NRT and find that not only was coach crammed all the way through but roughly 10 lucky souls scored WBC op-ups due to overbooking. Alas, I had no status then (I made silver somewhere over the Yukon) so I didn't even have a shot at an op-up.

I deliberately chose the later flight in the day (NW0012) gambling that it would be more crowded and thus increase the odds of an op-up. WBC is presently showing 12 open seats so that's probably the max number of upgrades we'll see (factoring in no-shows as well as last-minute tix purchases). I'm gold but have no idea how many plats are ahead of me nor how many golds I'll be competing with.

So... to those who make this run more often than I do, what are the odds? It's a Monday flight (Labor Day in the U.S.), the second of 2 flights to DTW, the last NW flight to the States (I think) of the day, and I'm gold. Shall I dare hope to get some decent food and a comfortable seat ("fetch... the comfy chair!") or should I bank on keeping 32-G?

Edit: I just checked seat availablilty for NW0012 and all it shows is J availability. I remain cautiously optimistic.

I have never been Op-UG'd on DTW/MSP-NRT routes as a Gold or Plat for 4 years (with a total more than a dozen flights).

Could someone luckier than me please stand up?

It actually happened to me once when I was a lowly silver. But that was 10 years ago when NW featured both int'l first class (good) and a smoking section (bad).

My experience has been don't expect it, and if you happen to get it you will be very happy. When I was Platinum (5 yrs straight) I got op-uped maybe 40% of the time when flying coach.

I found it doesn't hurt to politely ask at the gate ticket counter if there is any chance of an upgrade. Platinums will be ahead of you and there are usually several of them on those Tokyo flights, so again I wouldn't expect anything.

... all I can say is get there early... my friend told me the loads on one flight I was on (NGO-DTW) as being over in Y by ~15. I was like the 4th or 5th person to check in, mentioned that I knew they were oversold and politely said "if there is anything I can do to help... " and poof I heard those magic words.... "yes mr. zipper, I see you are one of our platinum elite members and can offer you an upgrade to WBC" ... it was like the heavens opened ... if that doesnt work, be at the gate or check in the club as well... play ALL your cards...

I agree with get there early especially on NGO-DTW, I took my first trip ever on NW(no status with anyone at the time) and on the return I was 5th to check in and the supervisor ran over and begged me to take the op-up and a voucher for a slight re-route. And being polite never hurts.

And your logic for taking the later flight may be flawed in that if the earlier flight is oversold they may op up them onto your flight.

i guess i was really lucky, because as a gold the one time i flew that route, i got an op-up from nrt to dtw on nw 12!!! ^

Can't really say specifically for the NRT-DTW route, and it is past the summer tourist rush, but I have gotten op-upped two years in a row (as a Gold) during my summer transpacs (NRT-MSP and PDX-NRT).

Being during the summer tourist rush, both these flights were packed to the gills in economy. I would guess there were fewer elites on these flights given the season, and this probably helped as well.

On the PDX-NRT segment, I arrived early at the airport and got my op-up when I checked in at the main counter. I was also given the option of being bumped, but since I already had my WBC seat assignment in hand, and really had to be back in Tokyo the next day anyway, I opted to pass.

On the NRT-MSP segment, I was pulled out of line while going through the gate and, among profuse apologies from the two GAs, given a WBC boarding pass.