I've got a NRT-DTW flight next Monday (Sept. 5) and, for the hell of it, and I'm trying to calculate my odds of an op-up. The back 2 coach sections in the 747-400 are nearly full while the elite section is maybe 30% occupied. I have learned, however, through painful experience that this emptiness means nothing. The first time around, I assumed it meant I had a row to myself, only to arrive at NRT and find that not only was coach crammed all the way through but roughly 10 lucky souls scored WBC op-ups due to overbooking. Alas, I had no status then (I made silver somewhere over the Yukon) so I didn't even have a shot at an op-up.

I deliberately chose the later flight in the day (NW0012) gambling that it would be more crowded and thus increase the odds of an op-up. WBC is presently showing 12 open seats so that's probably the max number of upgrades we'll see (factoring in no-shows as well as last-minute tix purchases). I'm gold but have no idea how many plats are ahead of me nor how many golds I'll be competing with.

So... to those who make this run more often than I do, what are the odds? It's a Monday flight (Labor Day in the U.S.), the second of 2 flights to DTW, the last NW flight to the States (I think) of the day, and I'm gold. Shall I dare hope to get some decent food and a comfortable seat ("fetch... the comfy chair!") or should I bank on keeping 32-G?

Edit: I just checked seat availablilty for NW0012 and all it shows is J availability. I remain cautiously optimistic.