AAaLot

Over the last few years I have really enjoyed Flyertalk.

For most of this time I have felt that frequent flyer programs have been in the positive side of their life cycle. I have always noticed exicitment and new ideas on most Flyertalk posts.

However, over the last few months I have noticed a marked change in these programs and a marked change in the overall mood of Flyertalk.

I definitely feel that frequent flyer programs have peaked and now, in one way or another, are on their way out.

Question? Do you feel frequent flyer programs peaked?

Randy Petersen

"On their way out?" Got to disagree there. Any mood chages you have sensed are more likely the result of the current economic times of both the airline industry as well as the seemingly stuck stock market, etc. I've actually notced far more enthusiasm from new posters to FlyerTalk and sense new faces in the crowd. As for marked changes in these programs - i tend to balance changes with any industry - and would suggest there have been far darker days in FFPs. The absolute lowest time ever in programs was back in 1988/89 when major programs such as AAdvantage and Mileage Plus introduced expiring miles which effected every single member. It's really too early to say much about the US Airways announcement since not enough real research has been done to know the extent of its impact. In an indistry of some 80 million members with plenty of outside influence - the airlines themselves - could you not assume that there would always be some sort of ebb and flow? The reality point here might be to look at your own statements and truly appreciate just how far these programs have come. The term "frequent flyer" was true some 21 years ago. Yes, the only miles you eanred were from actually flying. Not sure about you, but a vast majority of my miles come from non-flight activity and I think I'm fine with the occasional restriction and changes for the upside.

The last time many noted that perhaps frequent flyer programs were on the downside was some five years ago in the middle of the dot.com revolution when cheap money and lots of it spawned dozens of new loyalty and travel currencies sure to knock off miles and these programs. Where are any of these challenges today? I don't think anyone would argure that these programs are still king against the challengers and just as airlines used these programs last year to give our spirits a boost (would you think many members would give back the comp and discounted elite extentions, the doule flight miles, the discounted awards?), they will use them again to get through all this. And yes, some will make mistakes in their decisions - we know they aren't all perfect in our eyes - but over time, we'll end up in programs that suit our taste of benefits and awards and if it means changing, so be it. But I would suggest one thing is very sure - these programs are not in their decline.

Anyway, just my thoughts - you have a good question and observation.

gleff

There are two separate questions here -- miles and status.

Miles are clearly not on the way out. It's a great side business for the airlines.

Status, on the other hand, is what I value most. It gets me the first class upgrades, the preferred seating, avoids the hassle at times through airport security lines, and gets me preferred checkin.

Status will ultimately change in some fashion, I would guess. Miles flown are a crude measure of the value of a customer to an airline. A 100,000 mile flyer might spend $2,000 or $40,000 (or if it's all international paid F, $80,000).

Those customers are obviously not all worth the same to each airline. As airlines get better at distinguishing their customers, they will certainly treat each group differently (and ultimately, perhaps, each individual customer differently).

However, the crude tool that US is using -- no status, no standby, no residual value for unused non-refundable tickets -- seems to be a lose-lose.

Obviously US thinks they'll gain. I think they would gain with less of a blunt instrument.

This version means that even their Chairman's Preferred travlers under the new regime (100,000 miles on full fare) will be S.O.L. when purchasing a leisure ticket for their family. Talk about ticking off those best customers!

You would expect an airline to move their recognition and status -- maybe make it revenue based (reach a threshold of spending, earn status).

This is just clumsy and clunky.

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