they're holding out for that "industry leading" contract. and i doubt that it's industry leading as in "best productivity", or "we realize the company is hemmoraging cash, so how can we help?"

amazing....

Very.

If you think management at UAL is in denial, just take a look at the unions. Hey, guys, it's not 1998! You can't get blood from a stone, no matter how hard you squeeze!

Plus, the other thing is, if they go on strike, and UAL says, screw 'em, they can very easily find a lot of guys who used to work for other airlines who would be very happy to get a paycheck right now.

I heard this on the news this morning and I can't believe it... Now is not the time to go on strike.

when you need to fill 96% (!) of your seats just to break even, you really should think twice about scaring off any potential customers.

and sadly, W has already said that he will intervene and prevent a strike, just as he did at Northworst and Delta. when will these politicians learn that they cannot not stop the market from the inevitable? both management and the union at one of these carriers needs to be told "you're on your own. work it out, or go out of business". comair wasn't big enough.

In W's defense, at least in the case of NW, both parties seem quite happy with the contract reach. Even in the DL case, the pilots certainly cannot claim to have been screwed by W promising to stop the strike. In fact, the one case where he didn't intervene was the Comair strike, and those pilots definitely took it in the shorts for striking.

Threatening to strike in this atmosphere is career suicide. Liek anothe rposter said, if I were UA I'd fire every single one who went on strike and hire some of the layoffs from another company. F*** 'em.

i'm not faulting President W.

but i am faulting the politicians who intervene in matter which they should not. of course both sides at NW seem happy with their contract. because the president intervened, both sides had a scapegoat to blame for not getting everything they wanted. but i'll make the case that the contact is more expensive than it would have been had there been no interference. and NW would be in a better financial position right now had they been able to negotiate a contract that was able to address business issues better. i think NW currently needs to fill 90% of all seats just to break even?

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All Hail Mighty Oregon!

GO DUCKS GO!

Would not W's intervention actually be pro-labor, in that it would save the mechanics from themselves, i.e. the potentially catastrophic consequences to UAL of a strike at this point in time?

Although ex-United CEO Jim Goodwin's comments about UA's future may have been ill advised, they take on considerable merit if there is a strike in the post 9/11 environment. (Was Goodwin perhaps alluding to this strike possibility without actually saying so?)

I believe we all lose if an airline as large as United were to go under. Remember, very few seemed to believe it would actually happen to Eastern Airlines either.

Of course, my preference would be that management and labor get their differences sussed out on their own but if they can't do so in a timely manner, I'm all for Dubya steppin' in.

FT'ers are well informed and educated on 99% of topics, but speaking as an employee of a major railroad, I think most of you need some "Railway Labor Act 101".
The RLA is designed to minimize, if not eliminate strikes, as the railroads and airlines are considered vital national assets. Reaching an agreement through negotiations is ALWAYS the preferred route to a settlement, and the RLA imposes major requirements to escape those negotiations.
First, the NMB must decide that negotiations are going nowhere, and release the parties from them. That is what just happened with the IAM and United. Then there is a proffer of arbitration, which was rejected by the IAM, triggering the 30 day countdown to a possible strike. This cooling off period can be extended, but when it ends there can be a strike. However, the President can appoint a Presidential Emergency Board, and no strike can occur while they study the problem, and the PEB results are final and binding.
I am not aware of what has been transpiring in the negotiation sessions, but if the IAM wants to be released from negotiations with the current post 9-11 environment, UAL must be asking for major wage cuts. In the case of Eastern, Lorenzo started every session with demands for 60% wage cuts. Eventually the union decides that a neutral arbitrator would give them a better deal. The problem for IAM is, if they run through the cooling off period, a strike would be very hard to justify. And if the President appoints a PEB, there cannot be a strike. And, since Dubya is a republican, you can be sure that two of the three arbitrators he appoints to the board will be pro-business and eager to carry out the F*** em feelings expressed in this thread. And, I will tell you right now that with the current situation in this country, there is NO WAY that Dubya will not appoint a PEB and allow a strike to happen. The Northwest strike was successful because President Clinton did NOT appoint a PEB. There was no PEB for Comair and those pilots indeed "took it in the shorts". There was no PEB for Eastern, and the whole place dissappeared. No PEB in the mid-80's for UAL, and they got major gains. So, a strike is a gamble. No union would go in that direction unless negotiations were a failure. If you're in sales and your customer keeps demanding a 60% lower price you'd walk out too. I personally feel that given the above, there will not be a strike on UAL or any other major carrier, because Dubya will appoint a PEB. Daze

Daze - very good explanation of the RLA.

Lets sum up the UA machinists position. They have been on a wage FREEZE since 1990 and now earn upto 30% LESS than the industry average. They were engaged in good faith discussions for wage increases since last year, but then the pilots jumped ahead of them using tactics that were questionable. Now, with the pilot salaries having reached the stratosphere and with ALPA unwilling to even DISCUSS cutting those salaries, the IAM is being asked to bend over and take another one for the team.

I'm sorry, but I'm all with the machinists here. The threat of a strike will also give management the leverage they need to deal with ALPA.

The authorization/threat to strike is a time honored bargaining tool.

It is typically done to show management that the union is "serious". It doesn't mean that a strike is going to happen.

i'm sorry 747, but you are forgetting something about the wage freeze, as you call it. they received something in exchange for that wage freeze. they received a share of the company which they agreed was equal to the value of what they gave up in pay. they didn't simply take a pay cut, and get nothing in return. that seems to be getting lost here.

that being said, the mechanics have a responsibility to work to increase the value of their holding. as i see it, they have two ways to work through this problem.

1. the pilots set the new "standard" with their contract. that contract is currently helping strangle UAL. so perhaps the mechanics should negotiate a contract that reflects the current realities, and negotiates wage snap backs and healthy bonuses ONCE profitability goals have been reached.

not only would they see wage snap-backs and bonuses, the value of their investment in the company would grow as well. yes, they invested in the company when they agreed to the pay cuts during the ESOP.

or..........

2. they can continue to argue that they are due to "get theirs", and use the PEB to negotiate a contract that will continue to keep costs high. who knows, maybe UA will need a LF of 103% just to break even, instead of the current 96%. hey it's only 7%, right? just lay down in the overhead bin, sir. we'll open the door for you when we get to BKK.

of course if they take option 2, the value of the stock which they worked for
(again, they worked for that stock) during the ESOP will have no value after the chapter 11 filing....

Please also see:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum50/HTML/009049.html

I can't believe I agree with an Oregon Duck fan on something, but to strike now is insane.