I guess perception is a funny thing. I have rarely had trouble getting what I wanted out of a frequent flier program. Then again, as others have discussed here, I have some strategy behind not only my earning methods, but also my usage. Reporters rarely go behind the sensational aspect of the story, i.e. "you will never be able to use those miles...there are too many of them"; and don't cover the "one man found that he could redeem his award by making two extra connections to get exactly where he wanted on the dates he wanted". They don't report those things.

As for the value of miles, I do consider it like currency. Sometimes there are bargains, and other times I pay through the nose. But like any value, it's the buyers job to do the homework to find the best value.

I have redeemed some miles at the saver level. I redeemed domestic award tickets (for 2 people) recently at the lower (saver) level. It took some flexibility to get good flight times, etc. I even did an award for myself for Christmas travel. (it would cost approx $450 to buy one ticket for this domestic destination).

I even redeemed 100K miles for a LH F award to Germany 1 1/2 years ago. Even changed the return date w/o problem. (note: the change is only allowed if travel has not commenced).

Some airlines are harder to get availability than others. I have redeemed saver miles for biz seats to Australia 330 days out.

With flexibility and good knowledge, one can redeem saver award tickets.

I call him BLOWHARD because of the jibberish he prints. But somebody is foolish enough to actually pay for the privilege of reading it. As for the subject at hand, FF programs are definitely in for changes in the USA, but not extinction. They are tool valuable as marketing and loyalty tools in the cut throat US airline environment. And most do make a profit for the carriers because many more miles are sold to credit card companies than are redeemed or bought by the airlines themselves. This is a good source of cash for cash-starved airlines.

(And you don't think the banks behind the credit cards don't have a major stake in the survival of the programs and the carriers who run them? Take a look at how both CIBC and Amex provided interim financing loans -- advances against future miles purchases -- to AC when it was going through the Canadian version of Chapter 11!)

He also forgets that about 17% - 20% of miles never get cashed. At least that is the "breakage" level at AC's Aeroplan program, and it is just as likely that the US carriers have many more orphaned accounts to soak up a goodly proportion of miles. This is an essential business number for the success of the programs as money-making entities.

There is also a need to distinguish between elite mileage earners and users, from others. This will skew his mathematics and cover off any obligation that he seems to worry about.

Yes, like any "run on the bank" it would be impossible to meet obligations. But this is never applied in other circles -- banks are allowed to have loans that are multiples of their cash-on-hand, so if FF programs have a problem, we all have a problem where it really matters with the way our personal savings and investment are likely leveraged! -- so why single out FF programs?

Manufacturers used to fill large warehouses of goods awaiting peak demands from consumers. Today, the vast majority are working on a "just in time" philosophy. So it is with the redemption of FF programs. No need to have huge reserves just in case a lot of people want their seats at the same time to the same destination. That's what restrictions are all about!

The real worry is that this man is taken seriously by some quarters. To me he's the Fool on the Hill...not the little boy in the Emperors New Clothes.

There are lots of problems with the US airline industry. I don't think FF programs rank high up there (unless a major like UA or NW or DL goes down).

"..Reporters rarely go behind the .." !!!

Another product of the "instant gratification lifestyle".

Wonder how they'd respond to: "Your paper sucks because I can't find the story I want without turning past the front page" ??

/.

i think there is a sort of phaze out going on... at the same time, things like miles, points, gift certs, cards, promos and buy this get that schemes have never been at such a peak as now. I mean just the other day I bought a $25 papa ginos fast food gift cert because they give you a free pizza cert thats valid in jan! I go there a lot and may make the cut, but they know they can entice guys like me so they can generate revenue now in dec 05. miles are the same sort of thing, and like the pizza cert, there are a percentage of people who will not redeem, lose them, or come in too late when the fine print rules have changed.

miles seem more over flooded in this area (of redemption problems) than other programs of the same ilk do, and I do see some pending problems with that where airlines may try to slowly phase in a craftily marketed way to trim the fat, but i dunno if joe is 100% right. he seems onto something but i take his posts of funny bitterism and measure them against all the other mileage crap I skim out there and I gotta say: if the guy is able to create a following on a subject he knows at least something about, and get paid for it, then all the power to him!

why didnt one of us think of that?
MM

Can someone explain the logic in this statement?

United Airlines as a whole is losing money and was bleeding cash. The frequent flyer program unit -- MileagePlus -- was taking in cash faster than it was spending it and was a profit center when looked at as a standalone unit. I hope that helps explain it a bit.

Also, a business unit can be worth more than its parent. And when the parent company or parent company's other main units are generating losses and drawing down the cash while one subsidiary is not, a break-up could show that one subsidiary is worth more than the (former) whole -- since the value of the loss-making business units (as one entity) can be far lower than that of a profit-making business unit by itself.

Actually, more than just the small credit card point collectors are moving to the cash back cards. I have moved to pseudo cash back card where I can covert points into cash in relatively small increments.

My motivation? I have over 300,000 miles combined in 4 accounts. My husband and I nearly always pay for our tickets to achieve the silver or the gold level. Our children travel only 3 times a year, about 50% on award tickets. So the balance stayed at 300,000+ for last few years. It is time change the credit cards to get cash back. Hopefully, the mile balances will start dropping.

I believe that the FF program will still be there but there is no reason to accumulate more miles than you need.

Problem is, most people, or at least most of the people I know including myself, do not plan their vacation solid 330 days before it. I don't know.. It's difficult.

It is apparent that many posters didn't read the piece. His column is available free at USAToday.

As you'll see, much of the article is about how to get the most value from programs - exactly what we here try to do every day. And one of his suggestions is indisputable: Using hotel points is much easier than airline miles.

... well about the hotel points being easier to use than airline miles: that depends. Before reaching HHonors Diamond, I was striking out repeatedly.

Joe is right about the programs not allocating enough seats to cover redemptions. This is clear from the increasing # of complaints posted on FT regarding the lack of award inventory for popular routes at peak times. But Joe's prognosis and recommendations are a little off.

Clearly, airlines are selling FF miles faster than the German government printed DMs after WWI. The result is inevitable: the "price" of tickets purchased with miles is bound to go up. Hence, saving miles for your retirement is not a brilliant strategy if you are looking to get the most $/mile.

The solution, however, is not to cash in miles for worthless magazine subscriptions or more tangible items valued at 1 cent per mile or less. Rather, it is to use miles to book upgrades or free F & C seats on international itineraries. And to book as far in advance as possible to secure your ticket (or as short as possible, if that is feasible).

Joe may be right about the limited number of available reward seats at peak times. However, this is a function of supply and demand. I also had to PAY a relatively high fare during the Christmas holidays to get a ticket. Fares are going up; capacity is going down. FF Award (saver) are valued below the lowest fare tickets. Therefore, availability at peak times will be severely limited.

The solution: schedule your trip at an off-peak time or day to maximize the use of your miles or spring for the non-restricted awards.

Having read the article, I stand by all of the assumptions I made in post 2 of this thread.

Mike

Well, IMO most people either have to plan their vacation around some event that is fixed pretty far out (like school vacations) or else have some flexibility in timing once they know what their window is. A lot of people don't realize that booking award travel is different than booking other travel, or they do realize it but stubbornly act the same anyway.

A few people really do find themselves in a situation where they get stuck with fixed dates, but don't know what those dates will be until shortly before travel. For them, award travel really isn't a realistic possibility, and they end up using their miles for upgrades, lounge memberships, hotel rooms, etc. Hopefully, their job has compensating good features to make up for this undesirable feature.