I call him BLOWHARD because of the jibberish he prints. But somebody is foolish enough to actually pay for the privilege of reading it. As for the subject at hand, FF programs are definitely in for changes in the USA, but not extinction. They are tool valuable as marketing and loyalty tools in the cut throat US airline environment. And most do make a profit for the carriers because many more miles are sold to credit card companies than are redeemed or bought by the airlines themselves. This is a good source of cash for cash-starved airlines.

(And you don't think the banks behind the credit cards don't have a major stake in the survival of the programs and the carriers who run them? Take a look at how both CIBC and Amex provided interim financing loans -- advances against future miles purchases -- to AC when it was going through the Canadian version of Chapter 11!)

He also forgets that about 17% - 20% of miles never get cashed. At least that is the "breakage" level at AC's Aeroplan program, and it is just as likely that the US carriers have many more orphaned accounts to soak up a goodly proportion of miles. This is an essential business number for the success of the programs as money-making entities.

There is also a need to distinguish between elite mileage earners and users, from others. This will skew his mathematics and cover off any obligation that he seems to worry about.

Yes, like any "run on the bank" it would be impossible to meet obligations. But this is never applied in other circles -- banks are allowed to have loans that are multiples of their cash-on-hand, so if FF programs have a problem, we all have a problem where it really matters with the way our personal savings and investment are likely leveraged! -- so why single out FF programs?

Manufacturers used to fill large warehouses of goods awaiting peak demands from consumers. Today, the vast majority are working on a "just in time" philosophy. So it is with the redemption of FF programs. No need to have huge reserves just in case a lot of people want their seats at the same time to the same destination. That's what restrictions are all about!

The real worry is that this man is taken seriously by some quarters. To me he's the Fool on the Hill...not the little boy in the Emperors New Clothes.

There are lots of problems with the US airline industry. I don't think FF programs rank high up there (unless a major like UA or NW or DL goes down).