I agree 100%. This is the one program that I respect and accumulate points in whenever possible. I use the SPG Amex and only convert the points into miles to top off an account at the time of use. "Borderline fraud" is a good way to describe the capacity controls. I think that they should be forthright with the way the controls work and tell the public the minimum number of award seats for a given plane (it can depend on the plane size or whatever) and tell how many that are taken. I think that some flights actually have no seats available at all and they are later released if the airline "feels like it."

I have NEVER been turned down for a room in a Starwood hotel. With flights, I rarely get the first choice date and often get nothing. Though, strangely enough, I actually just redeemed some "Nonepass" miles and got the first choice dates. Of course, I am booking 7 months out.....

I think that the explanation for the whole thing is that the programs have to have some "controlling factor". For Starwood, it is in the earning. Save for a small bonus here and there, there are not easy ways to gain large amounts of points quickly as there are for airline miles. For all of the others, they give tons of bonuses and the controlling factor is the redemption. I just spent $150 for a flight to Florida and got about 10k miles for a 1,000 mile flight after the triple miles, online booking bonus, and some other bonuses were done. If you spent $150 at a SPG hotel, you would get 300 points, maybe if you were lucky, a 500 point bonus or something, but nowhere near the bonuses that the airlines are dealing out.

If too many people transfer their miles to Hilton - or other hotel plans - you'll find that option closing very quickly. Just ask all the million-milers from LatinPass

indeed... sadly, that is so true, aint it?

Hence, plan 2:

maintain all my accounts in such a way where the bal's are always at award levels I can redeem (for example, if 50k is econ to Europe, have 50k, not 48,751 or something like that.)

be aware and ready and when the run on the bank to transfer points or redeem comes up, take it when you must (like when the United===>Hilton so abruptly left us...)

then re-tool all thinking on that particular miles or points program, cancel any cards and ties to it, end relationships being done with it that may have otherwise continued to grow... If I have the AA Master Card, I would then think twice about keeping it active. I would close the account, pay off the final bal and move to another source of points and miles yeilding activity.

Cards like AA MC would lose customers, thereby losing business, thereby feeling threatened to change even more or maybe even go under, and other ones would gain business. AA MC would offer new loyalty incentives if it could and if not, the whole shooting match begins to erode and somehow the industry is able to pull off the end of all things loyalty rewards programs! But it is unlikely it will take place because they'd all have to collectively cooperate at the same time.

Either way, my advice is to get out now, as soon as you can, or be ready to at as close to a moment's notice as freakin' possible--if only to not give anyone the satisfaction that you had, say, 3,000 points or miles left over unused somewhere!

That is how I live my miles life. The only other thing that currently gives me the same kind of willies and makes me live as if I am constantly hanging in the balance even for a short period is watching the Boston Red Sox take on the Yankees next week should they sweep tonight and the Yankees win 2 more as well. I mean, we could beat 'em this time but I think I will be calling in sick a few times next week because I will be too frazzeled at the office anyway. Oct 17, 2003 and the days that followed were very dark, dark times indeed. I felt like I had just lost hundreds of thousands of miles! Fortunately the Patriots won again and winter time is ski season. This was kind of like getting a brand new Starwood card in the mail with a sweet 10K start up bonus offer, and then some!

MM

I too am concerned about the huge ff liabilities bankrupt or near bankrupt carriers have. I have always been a mile burner, but there is only so much vacation I can schedule with excess mileage. I have no choice but to sit with roughly 50,000 to 100,000 miles in 6 legacy carrier accounts in 2005. In my gradual cashing out, so to speak, I am switching over all my ff credit cards to cash back type cards. The Costco AMEX 3%meals-2%rental cars & hotels-1% everything else and the CITI MC 5% back on gasoline have replaced the BofA DM card and UA bankcard. Worldperks Visa and AA MC will be next. AMEX Skymiles will probaby be the last one, due to double miles promotions.
My wife will be shocked, but I will probably start bringing home the Kellogg cereals with savings bonds certs instead of AA mileage certs.

Outoftown

I do not have huge balances in the programs, probably between the six airlines' programs I am in, I have less than 150k total miles. Since the decline in my business travel, I simply do not accumumate them at the same rate. I put most points from credit cards in SPG and just do not worry about it. I do not spend any extra money to get miles except for the $30 annual fee for SPG Amex. At this time, I have received enough free travel from miles and points, that if I lost every mile and point that I now have, I would still be way ahead of the game and I would not at all regret having played the miles game. I am not a person to take mileage runs to get points, though I may take a trip that I want to take anyway if the points are good - it was worth it for the trip alone. So as disheartening as it would be to lose miles, I do not worry about it. If I get miles, I get them, when I need to use them, I do. I do not see them as a travel 401k, they are simply an available pool to buy airline tickets and hotels whenever I want to take a trip.

As far as funnelling miles to Hilton from AA if AA were to be under fire, I assume that, as others said, that this door will close. Hilton used to take miles from CO, DL, NW, and UA but all of those doors have been closed. I dumped some orphan miles to Hilton right before they closed.

AA's conversion to the HH certs has sometimes been hit or miss. I always send them a fax and then follow up with a phone call after a reasonable time. Sometimes, they do not process the request for 2-3 weeks.

I suspect if there was a "run" on AA miles, they would institute the French equivalent of allowing import of Toyotas only at a very small French port!

As Snake put it quite adequately, many of the CSR are clueless about their own rules and regulations. We the FT could teach them about their own rules. Just because a CSR has not done a specific transaction does not mean that it cannot be done legally.

Let's also not forget that the first baby boomers hit 62 in 2008 and 65 in 2011. We'll get a tidal wave of retirements starting in seven years or so. How many of those people had high-travel jobs where they banked a lot more miles than they spent while working? Methinks quite a few envision using them to travel in retirement, and that could be what really accelerates the airlines devaluing the miles. We already have a stealth devaluation in that "unrestricted" awards are often all that is available (a particular complaint with CO but also with others). Instead of 25/50 we'll get 30/60, 35/70, and so on (i.e. you won't get the award at 35,000 that you can't get for 25,000 today). Or they could always create the "We really mean it" unrestricted tier for 3 times the lowest amount and try to do it that way.

In any case, it'll be like dealing with an inflated currency.

A year or two after the airline shakeout and one or two majors go under. Less competition will make loyalty programs less attractive to the survivors. IMHO

Sadly, the allure of status, miles/points, and FF programs in general seems to be coming to a rapid end. In the past few years, I've seen the value of my miles deflate from 2 cents to around 1.3 cents each. Increases in award redemption costs and new surcharges on awards, upgrades, and just about anything else the major airlines offer promises to dilute the value of miles even further.

Somewhere in a long lost FlyerTalk thread I noted that at some point (when mile value closed in on 1 cent) I would need to re-evaluate my use of mileage earning credit cards as 1% cashback would be worth more than a mile valued at 1 cent. That day has come quicker than I imagined. All of my grocery charges now go on my 5% back Citi Platinum Dividend card (no annual fee) and my gas charges go the same way.

I used to have status in many of the airline FF programs and hotel programs. At one point, I was UA 1K, AA Platinum, US Gold, CO Gold, SPG Platinum, and HHonors Diamond at the same time due to special offers, extensive business travel, and mileage runs. Now I only retain AA Gold (lifetime), SPG Gold, and HHonors Diamond. In February, the SPG Gold will be gone too. Do I miss the statuses? Yes, but not nearly as much as I thought I would....frankly, I'm not missing out on much. With the dilution of benefits in most all programs and enhanced technology, airline upgrades are the only thing of note I don't have and first class is not what it used to be anyway. Leaving statuses behind gives me the freedom to book the best and lowest priced fights and hotel rooms rather than spending a little (or in some cases a lot) more to stay with a particular hotel or fly a certain airline.

Towards the end of the year, Mrs. MileKing and I will be looking at moving to a nearly full mileage burning mode. We had planned on saving these for travel in retirement (planning on retiring 10 years from now), but with devaluation almost certain to continue, the time to unload is now. The FF game is most certainly over.

Mileking:

I am assuming that 5 % rebate for the Citi Platinum card is on a sliding scale basis. an you please share the details? Thanks

MSP2000

The Citi Platinum Dividend Select card offers 5% back on purchases at grocery stores, drugstores, and gas stations and 1% back on everywhere else. This is NOT on a sliding scale, but is limited to $300 cashback per year. So, for $6000 in grocery charges per year, I'd rather take the $300 than 6000 miles. Go to www.citicards.com for details.

if this is truethen one could seriously argue that the marketers who want us to sign up and get miles for this and that are knowingly committing fraud!

I think so.
that's why I am also in the "two wrongs make it right enough for MM mode"

I will reap, earn, burn and be out safe and done.
hopefully still able to do SPG gigs! they rule.
MM

Well aside from the ethical arguments for or against ff programs, from a pure economics perspective, they don't make sense.

I see all kinds of posts on here about people looking for cheap trips for their year end "mileage runs"--or MR's to maintain elite status.

Now--in a perfect world-economically speaking anyway, the only time that you would get on an airplane for a trip is to--well--go somewhere you need to be.

With the ff programs, now you are getting on a plane for the sake of getting on the plane. On a MR, you may travel far distances then turnaround and get on the same plane to fly back home. One of the posters even asked what to say to crew members if they asked him if he wasn't just on the flight to that destination as he boarded the flight in the opposite direction 45 minutes later.

So that pax common sense is asking--"does doing this make sense"..? Of course, everybody says--don't worry about it--everybody does it.

Hmmm....

And--if you read the threads, the other common theme is the book the least costly MR trip to maximize miles.

So, the airlines have set up a system where by their customers can pick and choose their lowest priced offerings--probably flights they are losing money flying--and qualify for the extra elite freebies that cost the airline more money the next year...

What's wrong with this picture....?

..

from a layman's standpoint it is totally whacked and makes no sense. From one who does it, it is perfect savvy which is WHY it is so great!

I think it is done out of necessity--like having to get the next microsoft patch to make sure your computer can survive... and yet, 20 years ago, who even did any of that? And if you are on a mac, its not even needed!

Well, all of this Mileage run stuff makes me think of cars with intermittent windsheild wipers, credit cards and college degrees.

20 years ago, the only cars that had these special and very necessary wipers were luxury models. But how many times have you found it to be both safer and easier to drive and focus on the road BECAUSE your car has these wipers? many auto advocates said that all cars need to have this as a standard, and not just expensive luxury models. It is a matter of necessity.

Credit cards: It used to be a luxury for the rich. i remember when my parents got the first Amex green card. they had the sears card which was big in those days, but then they got the green amex. Wow. like the 1970s... Now, you NEED one to do everything and it had BETTER BE platinum super gold deluxe!

College? Dont even try getting a job at the local machine plant without a master's degree. Now you need a PHD to get most high end jobs, right? Well, almost.

the anti is up but some things have become standard. Like everyone being ABLE to get credit cards, or everyone having those wipers on every kind of car today.

In order to fly and just get the treatment most people think you should get anyway, you HAVE To have status! It is true! Sure, I fly econ a lot and am ok with it, but when you get screwed or something goes wrong, you are worse than the level of the coal shovelers on the Titanic! YOu are last to win back any life out of your experience. BUT if you have status with the airline, at least you may have a leg to stand on to save your self and either keep away from these situations. And if something does go wrong, they havent totally wittled away the value of someone with 100,000 miles being used on a RT fllight sitting in first class with elite status...YET.

And that is why the economics of MRs and other savvy tricks works out so well. If anything, the airlines should at least be given some credit for finding a way to FORCE everyone to not just become well vested in all their poromtions to get miles, but by making it only possible to fly with status and hundreds of thousands of miles on the line ready to use, they have made it so only the elite can fly. they figure that while these people may know all the tricks to get free miles, they are also the smart ones, willing to invest time and money into things, and at least on paper, they look like they HAVE the money to spend, which makes their investors be more willing to float these airlines' needs and let them fly to begin with! Now, if we can all become that luxury level, we all win!

then they will up the anti again, right?
right.

My thanks to many of you.

First, thanks to the person who pointed out the Citi Dividend select card. You should get a premium from Citi! That is a lot smarter than using my United Miles Visa card for these purchases (even though I do a bit better than just a 1:1 redemption because I shop almost 100% at Safeway).

One thing I'll point out is that some of us cycle these cards to get the new card bonus. I'm not saying this is the easiest thing to do, you keep hassling with card cancellations, but I've racked up 45,000 in Delta miles doing this three times, and am getting ready to do this with my United Miles card.

With the Citi as my backup (for the wife mainly) why not?

And thanks to Marathon Man for pointing out the Amtrak rewards system. Fantastic! I feel like a food for converting CO miles to UA. I should have saved them for Amtrak. This program alone makes CO far more attractive.

One question: other than some of the third party services, is there a way to go backwards, from UA to Amtrak?

Thanks again!