Randy responds to the question:

"Help me sell my worthless miles"

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...askrandy_x.htm

For those wishing to know how to do the math to compute the value of a mile based on how you will use it, I have a write-up on the subject on my website below. Click on Value of Miles in the left column.

This thread is right on point on what I am trying to figure out - maybe someone here can tell me if my reasoning is right:

Wife and I planning to fly to Japan. Could use 90K/each for a business tik (on UA) OR buy two coach tiks for about $1,600 each and then upgrade to business for 30K/each (need to spend money for the higher class to upgrade).

Hate to spend $3,200 out of pocket but we would then earn miles, which would keep our status up for next year (brings up the question of the value of status, but that is for another thread); save 120,000 miles for use another time; and the miles we would earn, combined with the various promotions at UA, would get us halfway to our upgrade. SO, the way I see it, if you value the 120,000 miles we would save at 1.2 cents or thereabouts, it comes out to almost the cost of one ticket. In effect we would be "spending" $1,600 for two business tiks to Japan. Is this reasoning warped or should I just fork over the 180K miles???

You have to manually add the link now that signatures are turned off.

I just returned from vacation. Why did they turn off the signatures?

My website is at www.freefrequentflyermiles.com.

Gary, I tried to work out the example I posted (two posts above) using the calculations on your website. I think (know) that I am making this too complicated - am I supposed to use the cost that a business class ticket would cost me or just the coach ticket for the upgrade (I think coach). More importantly, how do the 30K miles I would have to spend to upgrade work into the equation? In any case, I think that it works out that it would be a wash or that it may be worth to purchase the ticket, save the miles and earn miles but PLEASE HELP! Need to make a decision soon. Thanks.

Nice thanks

I understand you to say that your tickets will cost $3200 plus 60K miles, or $0 and 180K miles. I am going to guestimate that you would get about about 11,000 miles round trip each ticket if you purchase the tickets with dollars, which seems in the ballpark for the 10hr 40min flight from San Francisco. So your choice is

1. Spend $3200 + (60K - 22K = 38K miles), or
2. Spend 180K miles.

180K miles less 38K miles = 148K miles net difference in your accounts after the flights. So the question is, are the 148,000 miles worth $3200? That's 2.16 cents a mile. Would you pay that amount, given how you use your miles? (I wouldn't.)

Some things I don't know about this:

1. Would the taxes and fees be higher if you spend the 180K miles?
2. Do you have to pay extra taxes and fees on an upgrade?
3. Are you guaranteed the upgrade with miles when you buy the cattle class ticket? (I would really like an lesson from experts on this one. I have never done an upgrade with miles, mainly because I have always had more miles than I need, and so refuse to pay for a business class ticket.)
4. When you upgrade with miles, do you get the miles for the flight? If so, do you get miles for cattle class or business class (1.5x)?

Also, did you price a business class ticket through a consolidator? Maybe their prices are so low, you might not want to use miles at all to get the ticket.

Sound advice in general, IMHO!

As noted previously, I prefer to use miles to UG while paying for an inexpensive fare and obtaining more miles!

It depends on how much status matters for you personally I suppose!

-Mark

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It seems that it may just be temporary, FWIW...

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...=334114&page=1

In time , we will see!

-Mark

US Airways is making readers nervous

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...askrandy_x.htm

I recently took a trip to South America, A $653 fare yielded 16,221 OnePass miles including elite and online booking bonus. (cost per mile 4�)

15,000 OnePass miles transfered to Amtrak Guest Rewards = 15,000 points.

15,000 GR points were redeemed for an Amtrak one zone standard sleeper reward for 2 that priced at $888. (yield per mile 5.92�)

Many airline executives understand the overwhelming factor price has on the business and leisure consumer. It has been shown that a few dollars can be the difference in what airline a customer chooses. This represent that facts that airline seats have no true added value amongst each other in coach class. Customers see a seat not by the name on the outside, but instead as a commodity. Major airlines still have an upside agains the discount carriers and that is their extended route networks, alliances, and frequent flier programs that can put both to use. I would never expect United to cut its frequent flyer program as it is core to its marketing efforts to maintain loyalty amongst its customers. Without the frequent flyer program no one would think twice to take a ticket that is $20 cheaper on another airline rather then accure the miles on United. The only way this program is going to disappear is if United disappers and I find it hard to believe that will happen. Most likely changes will continue to be made and look to see that airlines will begin to offer deeper discounts by turning in your miles.

Interesting thoughts. I don't see airlines eliminating FF programs completely. I do fear that they will continue to tighten-up and probably overdue things, so much so that frequent flyers will conclude the programs are no longer worth the effort. The tightening will occur (is occurring?) in multiple ways so that it will not appear to be too terrible to most flyers. However, the cumulative effect of the changes will be devestating. Tightening will include fewer award seats at "saver" levels, more miles needed for awards, and perhaps fewer miles awarded for flights/purchases/etc.

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Yes, while it is very sad to say, for sure, I would absolutely agree with you!

-Mark