As I was driving past the (EWR) Airport this evening and called United only to find out that my 72 hour upgrade (UAL-PREMEX) is still on Waitlist b/c Fist class is full I couldn't help wondering... What percentage of people actually dont show up for a flight? I know this is a fairly general question, and a full Fare First Class is probabally more likely to miss a flight as they are likely on business and the ticket is refundable. Anyway, are there any statistics out there? Break down by class? I figure the whole concept of overbooking airline flights is based on this, just wondering what you thought. Thanks

[This message has been edited by milesandpoints (edited 05-30-2000).]

The general statistic that has been around for a while says that 10% of pax booked on a flight will not show up. The airlines track no-show factor for each flight, market, date/time, holiday period, etc. They have sophisticated computer programs, and departments full of analysts, who do nothing but try to predict how many seats they can sell on the flight so it will go out full, and to maximize the highest possible fares on said flights. I too am curious if electronic ticketing has reduced the no-show factor on flights in general.

Generally if a flight over-sells by 2 to 4 passengers, the airline is still making out ahead on the flight, especially if they pay-off the pax voluntarily with vouchers and the like.

Carriers will also adjust booking levels in response to weather, e.g. they will program computers to not over-sell flights anymore the day after a storm...because they know the no-show factor is going to be less in that circumstance. They weight a number of things on a flight to figure out the appropriate no-show factor. How did the flight do yesterday, a week ago, a month ago, last year on todays date, factor in holidays, etc.

I have been on 737s that have been overbooked by 30 or more that take off with a few empty seats. The no-show factor has gotten so bad that UA has actually started overselling Int'l F cabins by a few seats on certain routes.

It will also depend upon how many other flights are offered between those city pairs that day. If it is the only flight that evening, count on more people showing up. If is between JFK and LHR where there are numerous flights (BA has over 6 per day, many business/first book all flights and take the first one after business is done for the day.

TWA will book over 30 passengers on a MD-80. This is normal.

No-Shows are not only passengers who don't show to the flights. As a trick to reduce cost , travel agents often reserve round- trip flight even when the passenger is flying one-way. The 2nd segment is a "dummy" one and the airline get a "No Show" for a passenger who never intended to be on the flight.
Also , when a flight is overbooked , usualy there are seats available in Buisness and first that are cleared only at the airport so preffered passengers would be upgraded to clear space in coach.

People who miss connections must count in
the statistics as no-shows as well.

On top of no shows..travel agents also book certain of their top passengers on more than one flight on a given day..I have pulled up JFK to LAX passenger lists and seen the same individual booked on four or five flights. then no matter what flight they can make, they have a seat. Not only are they sticking it to the airline because those are seats that can be sold but when they also list them for upgrades they are sticking it to the rest of the top tier members of any given airline. Also, I don't know about any other airlines but I have never seen an AA flight oversold in FC

I have noticed that the easiest way to get a "bump" (e.g., free ticket, or credits) is to be booked on the flight with a big group. This really screws up the reservations system, and leads to overbooking.

I was once talking to a res agent at Continental trying to find out which flights I had the best chance for standby. She told me a LOT of stuff that they research on the flights: % of no-shows, amount of overbooking, upgrade chances, etc.

On a particulr flight with 159 seats they overbooked to 213.

Interesting. Thanks for the input.

Eastbay1K says Certainly that's true in Business class - flying back from London in April, I was told my upgrade didn't look good because business was almost entirely checked in but was still overbooked by seven. However, I doubt they oversell First by very much. Most airlines are reluctant to oversell their top category, on the grounds that they're willing to upgrade passengers if necessary but loath to downgrade them. And don't forget, these are paying first class passengers we're talking about - the airlines definitely don't want to piss them off!

RDURES1:

A couple of years ago I read in a paper about the practice of booking bogus F/C seats in order improve chances to get a standby upgrade, and the airline's efforts to identify the guilty party and insure that they remained in their proper place.

Do you have any knowledge about this unethical practice that you would care to share with us?

Years ago (Before elite upgrades) I was on a UA flight when a man sat in the F/C seat in front of me. A little later another passenger came on and told the man that he was sitting in his assigned seat. the first man got up, and without a word moved back to the coach section. I was puzzled by this until it was explained to me later that sometimes people would make a reservation and request a seat assignment under a phoney name, saying that they would buy the ticket at the airport. This was done with the hope that the seat would remain unsold, and that the passenger would be able to remain in the undeserved seat.

I was once on a UA flight from SFO to SAN. The gate agent told me there were 133 seats on the aircraft and they had 192 bookings. My wife and I were #1 and 2 on the volunteer list to get bumped and we both ended up on the flight, which actually had 2 or 3 empty seats.

On the other hand we were on a UA flight from SFO to Maui that was oversold by 25 and they ended up bumping 14.

[This message has been edited by JerryFF (edited 06-04-2000).]

When I was in the airline biz, I sat on an agent grievence board. The agent in the hot seat had booked 3 phoney pax in First Class to London. He was smart enough to use another agent's computer while it was unattended. He was flying with a buddy to London who was going to stay several months. Just prior to last call, he went to a computer at an adjoining gate and released those 3 seats. He cleared, along with his buddy, for first class.
CO keeps records on all BusinessFirst seats to determine how many are bought for $, for points, comped, using certificates, etc.
When the analyst noticed this activity, they really investigated.
Needless to say, the agent was not as smart as first thought. The knew which computer he was sined on then the phoney pax were booked, and where the attended computer was located. They knew where the computer was located that canceled the rez.
Adding to all of this was the complication that another airline had cancelled a London flight and wanted to buy 3 First Class seats. The lost revenue was noted.
Well, our friend was not so smart, he lost his job.
He applied for NJ unemployment. The unemployment commission denied his application. In addition, the commission urged the airline to seek reimbursement for the lost revenue (about $5700.)
Do they track first and business class seats: YES.