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Old Oct 31, 2023, 7:35 am
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by ffgap
Yeah. Typically, you can find an OTA which is cheaper almost instantly. So you pay more for the points (and, potentially, the benefits).

Just as an example, often times major ITA's like hotels.com offer 10-15% cashback (e.g., 13% for hotels.com was available the day before yesterday). Sometimes, OTA like booking.com offer nonpublic rates that are ~15% cheaper than the direct rate (using Genius rebates and such).

Neither cash-back opportunities nor nonpublic rates are things you can leverage for a BRG. (I think BRG is mostly dead, anyhow. YMMV.) Heavily discounted rates from OTA like Ctrip which sometimes try to get rid of excess room inventory they bought can, potentially, be leveraged for a BRG claim. But, again, BRG claims have become a waste of time for the most part.

Besides, I think the most important issue in practice is that people which are invested in loyalty are less price-sensitive and much less likely to price-compare/shop around for the best offer. Lots of evidence to that effect. Instead, people invested in loyalty become more engaged within the context of the program (e.g., respond to program promos or engage with co-brands/loyalty program partners).
Agreed, with a caveat. I find that only some chains are instantly discounted via OTAs (Hilton and IHG for example) while others offer identical rates when booking direct (Marriott and Hyatt for example). Now these are generalizations as I'm sure you can find a Marriott property less at an OTA, etc. But the generality stands imo. Thus - is it worth getting a credit card and joining a loyalty program? Yes, for Marriott and definitely for Hyatt (if their smaller footprint works for you). For Hilton or IHG - maybe as Hilton has a no AF card (so why not apply?) and IHG has a reasonably priced $99 AF card if you're staying a lot at that chain.

And I also agree BRG doesn't work for Hilton/Accor/IHG as the OTAs have figured out how to make the T&Cs ever so slightly different now - and thus I keep getting declined even though it's obvious I'm saving hundreds per stay by booking via the OTA (and the cancel policies or pre-pay policies are 1 day off)
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Old Oct 31, 2023, 8:45 am
  #47  
 
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The easy way to answer the OP question is:
- what is the $/point earning cost
- what is the $/point spending value

For Bonvoy, I earn the points at about $0.003 each When you offset the opportunity cost of other possible earnings, perhaps it goes up to $0.005. I redeem always above $0.01, usually above $0.02 -- hotels that are $500 per night (which are now plentiful) are often available for 35,000 points per night -- or less.

To contrast, my airline redemptions usually stick fairly close to their costs. I still keep a stash because there are "sweet spots" that arise in the various programs,. My most recent AA redemption was a last-minute domestic F work trip to Dallas that would have costed $1000 cash but I got it for 15,000 points "Value sAAver" or sthg. like that. But normally that would be 50k points. And 50k points is the equivalent of about $750 spend.

TL; DR -- my hotel points are worth double their cost. Airlines points are less of a bargain.
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Old Oct 31, 2023, 8:56 am
  #48  
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
Agreed, with a caveat. I find that only some chains are instantly discounted via OTAs (Hilton and IHG for example) while others offer identical rates when booking direct (Marriott and Hyatt for example).
I find the opposite: the rate in Concur/Amex is almost always higher than booking direct with a AAA rate, corporate code, or any type of decent promo code.

The only offhand exception I can think of is when you have a discount associated with a credit card - like an Amex FHR type promo or the old Citi 4th Night Free booking through the "Thank You" portal. (Perhaps Chase has something similar?)

For me, the points trade-off is that Marriotts are usually more expensive across the board than a decent boutique hotel or regional (non-global) chain, even in large European cities where finding reliable reviews of local boutiques is pretty easy and you can generally trust that it's a decent product.
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Old Oct 31, 2023, 9:05 am
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by pinniped
I find the opposite: the rate in Concur/Amex is almost always higher than booking direct with a AAA rate, corporate code, or any type of decent promo code.

The only offhand exception I can think of is when you have a discount associated with a credit card - like an Amex FHR type promo or the old Citi 4th Night Free booking through the "Thank You" portal. (Perhaps Chase has something similar?)

For me, the points trade-off is that Marriotts are usually more expensive across the board than a decent boutique hotel or regional (non-global) chain, even in large European cities where finding reliable reviews of local boutiques is pretty easy and you can generally trust that it's a decent product.
I'm sure Amex is higher - but that is just one OTA. If you're booking with Hilton check out Agoda. I discovered 5 of my next 7 stays are much less via them than direct. And funnily enough I checked Amex travel today and they were uncompetitive as well. I do agree Marriotts are no bargain via OTAs and in certain cities are priced uncompetitively vs the other chains (looking at you NYC). It's not all OTAs who are less - it's that some are... and you have to check a bunch of them
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Old Oct 31, 2023, 6:12 pm
  #50  
 
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
Agreed, with a caveat. I find that only some chains are instantly discounted via OTAs (Hilton and IHG for example) while others offer identical rates when booking direct (Marriott and Hyatt for example). Now these are generalizations as I'm sure you can find a Marriott property less at an OTA, etc. But the generality stands imo. Thus - is it worth getting a credit card and joining a loyalty program? Yes, for Marriott and definitely for Hyatt (if their smaller footprint works for you). For Hilton or IHG - maybe as Hilton has a no AF card (so why not apply?) and IHG has a reasonably priced $99 AF card if you're staying a lot at that chain.

And I also agree BRG doesn't work for Hilton/Accor/IHG as the OTAs have figured out how to make the T&Cs ever so slightly different now - and thus I keep getting declined even though it's obvious I'm saving hundreds per stay by booking via the OTA (and the cancel policies or pre-pay policies are 1 day off)
The IHG gives four nights for three and a FNC that is worth more than $99. We find it very worth our while. Plus we have the legacy select that gives us 10% back.
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Old Nov 2, 2023, 6:02 am
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by TravelinSperry
Agreed, with a caveat. I find that only some chains are instantly discounted via OTAs (Hilton and IHG for example) while others offer identical rates when booking direct (Marriott and Hyatt for example).
I would think just the opposite for Hyatt. They are particularly poor at it and let OTA's undercut their direct rates all the time. Booking.com (sometime only via app, not via web site), hotels.com, TUI, Trip.com app (might sometimes have to switch language to Spanish), etc.

It's too bad that (at least since C19), Hyatt is declining most BRG claims with the usual lame excuses.
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Old Nov 22, 2023, 4:55 pm
  #52  
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Comparing hotel versus airline awards

Analyzing the Value of Hotel Points by Comparing with Airline Points

The valuation of frequent flyer points and hotel loyalty points is subject to various factors that can significantly influence their worth. Typically, frequent flyer points are estimated to range from 1 to 2 cents per point, translating to a value of $100 to $200 for 10,000 points when redeemed for flights or upgrades.

For frequent flyer points, the actual value depends on factors such as the redemption amount required and the specific airline and program. Opting for premium cabin flights or international travel may yield higher value compared to redeeming for economy class tickets. Different airlines may have varying redemption rates and rules, with dynamic pricing introducing variability in the cost of awards. The availability and flexibility of award tickets play a crucial role, as limited availability can diminish the value of points, especially if desired travel dates are not accommodated. I estimate at any given time, about 1% of flights are available at the business class standard rate when I analized sample of one years worth of flights on several airlines in business class between North America and Europe.Of the 100,000 flights analyzed on the three major USA carriers AA, Delta and United only 987 returned search results in the 50,000 - 90,000 each way point redemption. The other 99% of the time they are either not available or at a poor value rate.

There are other factors that may add to the value of an airline award ticket. Award tickets often can be cancelled for free or a very low fee. As well international award flights can be booked as a one-way which tickets which can be beneficial for some. So if either of those are benefical you can add that value to the value of your miles. Typically award tickets do not help you earn elite status or additional miles, so if elite status and earning miles are of importance, you need to subtract that value from your valuation of the miles.

Hotel loyalty points, often valued between 0.5 to 1.5 cents per point, may seem lower compared to the price value range of frequent flyer points. However, hotel point values are influenced by factors such as the hotel chain and its loyalty program. Variances in redemption rates are evident, with certain hotel chains requiring considerably more points for rooms of higher value.

The true value of hotel points becomes evident when considering availability. Unlike airline awards, hotel awards are typically available, providing greater flexibility in choosing travel dates. However, the worth of a hotel point is contingent on the availability of awards, and if an award is unavailable, its value effectively drops to $0.

In assessing point value, it's crucial to weigh equivalent cash expenditures. Evaluating whether you would realistically purchase a flight or hotel stay at the advertised price helps determine the true worth of redeemed points. For instance, redeeming 200,000 points for a $4,000 airline ticket is considered a 2-cent-per-point redemption, but if you would only be willing to pay $2,000 in cash for that business class flight ticket, the effective redemption rate becomes 1 cent per point. Hotels have less of this inflated value as many hotels especially at the mid tier are priced in ranges that many would normally pay cash for.

An additional factor in the comparison of hotel and airline awards is the consideration of elite status. Many hotel loyalty programs offer elite qualifications, perks, and benefits when using points, potentially elevating the overall value of hotel loyalty points. These perks may include room upgrades, complimentary breakfast, or late check-out, enhancing the overall travel experience for loyalty program members.

Last edited by smilee; Nov 23, 2023 at 12:17 pm
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Old Dec 4, 2023, 1:25 pm
  #53  
 
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The no annual fee version of the hilton card is absolutely worth it for me, 5x base, I like that they allow you to pay any portion of the bill with points, IIRC with IHG it had to be in like 10,000 point increments. Once you get status with hilton the points multiplier goes up. I do not think the annual fee versions are "worth it" but if I didnt have so many other cards I'd probably whatever the highest tier one is my main card. We're just in a place right now where we are staying at hiltons 40 or 50 times a year.

If you are staying only at the high end properties, the higher end cards become worth it. We are staying in hamptons that have surprisingly decent free breakfast by default.
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Old Dec 9, 2023, 7:29 pm
  #54  
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Originally Posted by baldanders
The no annual fee version of the hilton card is absolutely worth it for me, 5x base, I like that they allow you to pay any portion of the bill with points, IIRC with IHG it had to be in like 10,000 point increments. Once you get status with hilton the points multiplier goes up. I do not think the annual fee versions are "worth it" but if I didnt have so many other cards I'd probably whatever the highest tier one is my main card. We're just in a place right now where we are staying at hiltons 40 or 50 times a year.

If you are staying only at the high end properties, the higher end cards become worth it. We are staying in hamptons that have surprisingly decent free breakfast by default.
The new version of the midline Hilton Surpass card may be worth it for someone who stays at Hamptons or other Hilton brands 40 or 50 times a year, because it has an annual fee of $150, but gives a quarterly $50 credit for any Hilton brand stays including Hamptons. So you get an effective "negative" annual fee of $50 net credit in such a case, unless you happen to go some calendar quarters with 0 Hilton brand stays despite 40 or 50 times a year.
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Old Mar 23, 2024, 1:50 pm
  #55  
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Originally Posted by smilee
Analyzing the Value of Hotel Points by Comparing with Airline Points

The valuation of frequent flyer points and hotel loyalty points is subject to various factors that can significantly influence their worth. Typically, frequent flyer points are estimated to range from 1 to 2 cents per point, translating to a value of $100 to $200 for 10,000 points when redeemed for flights or upgrades.

For frequent flyer points, the actual value depends on factors such as the redemption amount required and the specific airline and program. Opting for premium cabin flights or international travel may yield higher value compared to redeeming for economy class tickets. Different airlines may have varying redemption rates and rules, with dynamic pricing introducing variability in the cost of awards. The availability and flexibility of award tickets play a crucial role, as limited availability can diminish the value of points, especially if desired travel dates are not accommodated. I estimate at any given time, about 1% of flights are available at the business class standard rate when I analized sample of one years worth of flights on several airlines in business class between North America and Europe.Of the 100,000 flights analyzed on the three major USA carriers AA, Delta and United only 987 returned search results in the 50,000 - 90,000 each way point redemption. The other 99% of the time they are either not available or at a poor value rate.

There are other factors that may add to the value of an airline award ticket. Award tickets often can be cancelled for free or a very low fee. As well international award flights can be booked as a one-way which tickets which can be beneficial for some. So if either of those are benefical you can add that value to the value of your miles. Typically award tickets do not help you earn elite status or additional miles, so if elite status and earning miles are of importance, you need to subtract that value from your valuation of the miles.

Hotel loyalty points, often valued between 0.5 to 1.5 cents per point, may seem lower compared to the price value range of frequent flyer points. However, hotel point values are influenced by factors such as the hotel chain and its loyalty program. Variances in redemption rates are evident, with certain hotel chains requiring considerably more points for rooms of higher value.

The true value of hotel points becomes evident when considering availability. Unlike airline awards, hotel awards are typically available, providing greater flexibility in choosing travel dates. However, the worth of a hotel point is contingent on the availability of awards, and if an award is unavailable, its value effectively drops to $0.

In assessing point value, it's crucial to weigh equivalent cash expenditures. Evaluating whether you would realistically purchase a flight or hotel stay at the advertised price helps determine the true worth of redeemed points. For instance, redeeming 200,000 points for a $4,000 airline ticket is considered a 2-cent-per-point redemption, but if you would only be willing to pay $2,000 in cash for that business class flight ticket, the effective redemption rate becomes 1 cent per point. Hotels have less of this inflated value as many hotels especially at the mid tier are priced in ranges that many would normally pay cash for.

An additional factor in the comparison of hotel and airline awards is the consideration of elite status. Many hotel loyalty programs offer elite qualifications, perks, and benefits when using points, potentially elevating the overall value of hotel loyalty points. These perks may include room upgrades, complimentary breakfast, or late check-out, enhancing the overall travel experience for loyalty program members.
AS a Canadian, we like with hotel redemptions, there are no hotel taxes but when redeeming air rewards, we pay $150+ for flights to the US. We drive to SeaTac when redeeming for flights.
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Old Mar 24, 2024, 3:18 pm
  #56  
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AA is having a weird and unexpected value renaissance for me. We fly a lot of MCI-PHX, which has annoyingly high fares at certain times in the year, even outside of Feb-March (the highest peak period). Yet AA often has it for 7500 miles each way. It's a boring, unsexy use of miles...but it's about 3 real cents per mile in cash we would have otherwise spent. The 7500 miles books as a regular coach ticket, not a Basic Economy fare, which is added bonus if I'm booking it for other family members who have no elite status.

No idea how long this will hold true, but as long as it does it's where my AA miles are going. (BA has had it for 9000 miles at times but it 's less reliable than AA itself since partner awards are sometimes a little tighter.)
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Old Mar 25, 2024, 11:57 am
  #57  
 
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Originally Posted by pinniped
AA is having a weird and unexpected value renaissance for me. We fly a lot of MCI-PHX, which has annoyingly high fares at certain times in the year, even outside of Feb-March (the highest peak period). Yet AA often has it for 7500 miles each way. It's a boring, unsexy use of miles...but it's about 3 real cents per mile in cash we would have otherwise spent. The 7500 miles books as a regular coach ticket, not a Basic Economy fare, which is added bonus if I'm booking it for other family members who have no elite status.

No idea how long this will hold true, but as long as it does it's where my AA miles are going. (BA has had it for 9000 miles at times but it 's less reliable than AA itself since partner awards are sometimes a little tighter.)
I tend to agree as I've used my AA miles ORF-NYC regularly over the last six or seven years, finding much more value out of this humble redemption than on international flights. I've recently noticed, however, that AA has cut the number of daily nonstops out of ORF to JFK, my preferred airport, from three to one, which will make it more difficult to redeem. Given that no one can predict what move AA will make next (hey, we're all about NYC, oh wait, no we're not; hey, we're all about LAX, oh wait, no we're not), I won't be piling up more miles.

Regarding hotels, I've found hotel points very useful over the years, but unlike a small subdivision of points groupies, I don't try to plan my vacations solely around destinations where I can use points. There are a lot of great places off the beaten path that I would have never seen if I had limited myself to areas that had Marriott, Hilton, IHG, Choice, and Hyatt properties.
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