Hi All,

I am trying to get a handle on when it is best to actually pay for airfare, VS a long term churn/high spend strategy to create points and fly on those.

I understand therefore that timing could be an issue - if you simply MUST fly without owning the right number of points then you buy, but what price is the right price otherwise?

Looking at MR Threads I see people value getting points at under 5CPM.

I'm taking Y as the example as I feel many F/J bought options are too expensive to be a viable alternative to using miles for the average Joe/Joette. Personally when I fly with points I would upgrade to J for long haul.

An example of my predicament is a flight to Japan I am thinking of taking.

From NYC to Tokyo May 22nd- May 29th C on AA I would pay about $1200 and earn about 14.5K Miles RT.

If I route through BOS on the Dreamliner (assuming its up) I would get to take advantage of Double Miles... the flight is about $60 more, and then I would need to get to Boston ($400 on AA $200 on JB) so I could earn 29K miles for $1460.

I could also expense the trip for business, so could take a third of the price off (roughly) so say $1050 for 29K Miles on AA.

Or I could fly from NYC to NRT for 40K Miles RT with some fees (they say $271 but I have never seen it that high when redeeming in the past)...

I currently have enough miles to redeem 40K with ease, but should I be spending them, or earning them?

I ask humbly for your thoughts, as my gut is telling me that it is better to redeem than earn, but maybe I am not taking the second trip into account properly (where I would use those 29K miles).

Since you fly for business so may want to consider paying for the flight so that the miles count towards elite status which will help in the long run if you plan on flying AA.

At $1050 for 29K miles, it's only $0.036/mile which is a decent cpm but keep in mind those double miles are only redeemable miles vs elite qualifying miles

You found 40k availability for your travel dates? I saw nothing really, but didn't check out JL metal.

I'd buy the ticket as long as I can afford it. It all depends on what you're saving the miles for...

This is the ultimate YMMV situation. It simply depends on your travel goals. And those goals can differ depending on where you are in your life.

For example, when I was 20, if you'd told me I could get miles like this through credit cards and hop on a plane for free or vastly less than the cost of a full fare ticket, I would have burned those miles up on one coach ticket to go see a girlfriend who was doing an archealogical dig in another country at the time. At that point in my life, I had a lot of time but very little money to spend plus I was willing to ride in a cramped coach seat for many hours to arrive at a place where I might spend some days scrounging up the cheapest accommodations possible.

Now, I'm 58, I've got a good job that allows me to do significant traveling even without FF and hotel plans and credit card bonuses. But that good job, despite four weeks of paid vacation every year, still demands that I spend a fair amount of time actually working. I'm no longer willing to sit in a coach seat for much more than three hours at a time. I want a nice hotel at the end of the day although it really does not have to be luxurious.

Under the second scenario, I'm looking to use the points/miles I earn to supplement what I'm willing to pay to get a business or first-class seat or a hotel located a little closer to the action. I'll pay the amount for a revenue ticket that I would have paid before I discovered FT a couple of years ago and then upgrade with miles. I'll use cash and points options for hotels or I may use points for a couple of free nights in one place so I can take the money I would have budgeted for those nights and spread it over the remainder of my hotel budget so that I can perhaps stay in a unique property (such as a B&B) that might not fit within any hotel loyalty plan.

Earning works the same way. I'm willing to use my miles/points, but I'm always keeping an eye open for a good or timely earning opportunity. For instance, my job requires little business travel, including flying, so I'm not earning a great deal through that channel. Thus, until recently, I'd never achieved status with any airline's program. Because of a couple of flights I took (and paid for and upgraded with miles) with BA over the winter, however, I reached their Bronze status, and with one decent transcon in first class on AA, credited to BA, coming up this summer, I'll reach Silver, which will increase my earnings rate on BA flights. I'll pay for the legs of the flight that will get me that status and then use miles for the remainder.

I know I haven't given you any specific answers to your questions, but I think some of the answers become more obvious, the more you figure out what your short, medium, and long-term travel goals are. To me, that's one of the great things about FT. No matter what your goals are, you'll find information here to help you reach them. And the more time you spend around here, the more likely you'll get enough information that you might even reassess your goals.

Thanks for your responses all.

I guess from seeing them and thinking further it is more a case of how many miles do you need to not worry about the question...

EG if I had 1M in each program plus was earning at least what I was spending in them each year then I would never use cash for Hotels or Flights...Elite Status wouldn't apply if I was redeeming in F/J instead of Y.

But when I haven't got that amount, where is the tipping point where it is worth paying.

Tricky subject... the maths are there though, I can kinda visualize it so will think some more and see if I can excel sheet it, any other insight would be appreciated.

OP, your observation might not fit well in this comparison. For MR people it is more important to value cpm based on EQM instead of RDM, i.e., for most people the primary MR goal is attaining/retaining the elite status level.

Didn't see it, but heard there was trouble on the website so should call in. Either way I can change the dates so not an issue.

I don't really want to 'save' miles, I want to use them, I just need enough around to book the flight I want when I want...

Right now after redeeming a few J Trips to EU I have the following remaining.

95K AA
100K UR
60K MR
75K BA
30K SPG

I agree that is the underlying motive, but I think that a lot of the MR thread is more about "here is a cheap flight option" too...

But I see your point - however I am trying to find a yardstick for what people think is a reasonable price per mile to pay for a ticket.

There really is no yardstick because it really depends on your goal in future travel - do you want to fly in J/F across the pond (whether East bound or West bound) or even to Down Under? If these travels are in your goal within next few years, may be not burning miles in a relatively inexpensive coach ticket would be easier to make? especially when you can expense it ?

Isn�t a significant part of this discussion the amount of PAID flying necessary to achieve or maintain status? Award tickets generally do not count toward status whereas paid tickets usually do. There are probably many people who have sufficient miles and points to fund their travel but who instead choose to pay dollars for airline tickets for this reason.

1050$ gives you 29k miles worth at least 450$
So in net effect you are paying 600 to go to Japan. Well worth it

On miles only redemptions, you are correct that elite status doesn't generally matter if you are redeeming for F/J, but for earning miles and redeeming through paying for a cheap ticket and upgrading, it may make a significant difference. When I flew JFK-LHR in economy on BA as an entry-level Blue member, I earned 3458 Avios each way. As a Bronze member currently, I would earn 4323, if I still flew in coach. When I reach Silver, my earnings rate for the same seat would be 6916.

With AA, status can make a significant difference in being able to clear upgrades to higher classes of travel from the lowest cost economy fare flights. This link provides some information, http://www.flyerguide.com/wiki/index...te_Status_(AA). Earning rates for the same fare track the BA program. Other domestic airlines have similar features in their programs (although UA recently made drastic changes to their elite program that have many grumbling).

Elite status is not just about waived baggage fees, airport lounge access, and priority boarding. It can make a significant difference in how you accumulate miles with a particular airline or have the option of having your employer pay for a seat in economy that you can then upgrade to a more comfortable class of travel.

My question though... WHY is $600 well worth it for Japan? I know it FEELS like value, but how do you know when it really is?

You are valuing 29K miles at $450 here, I'll take that at face value. That makes it worth about 1.55 Cents per mile.

Then we are also valuing 40K Miles at $600 (If I redeem instead of pay) which is 1.5 Cents per mile...

Really sounds very close to me, not well worth it at all (better admittedly but hardly a no brainer)

I guess though, once you add on the redemption fees for award travel and also not gain the Elite Status then it does swing heavily in favor of buying the ticket....

Great points, but I guess I am wondering at the moment why would I EVER pay for a seat, wouldn't it always better to use miles?

Elite status if you are paying is great - but you do have to pay a certain amount of money to get where the value is (Platinum on AA for 100% bonus) even on Mileage Runs is going to cost a fair bit - then you still only get double miles which is like what I have on offer from BOS-NRT anyway... (unless it stacks... hmm..)

Makes no sense to me - if you have sufficient miles to travel why would you pay?

Status is fun, but is it really worth it if you decide to only book award travel?