When are we expecting this to be decided?

Quote:
Not later than 60 days after the date of enactment of the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, the Secretary shall grant, by order, 10 exemptions . . . .

H.R. 3935, Sec. 502(a), adding 49 U.S.C. § 41718(i)(1) et seq. The countdown will start when the President signs it into law.

I wonder how soon the airlines will make their submissions, and whether they would announce them publicly. Doing so might help the competing carriers tactically, so I doubt it. Maybe only the fact that they have applied.

I bet as soon as the law is passed and signed, the DOT will issue an application in short order. However, the actual process will depend on the number of comments received and may stretch beyond the 60 day limit.

You can look back at the 2012 proceeding. The 2012 FAA law set a 90-day deadline.

The law was signed in Feb 14, 2012 - the FAA posted notice on Feb. 24, with applications due by March 12 and comments due by March 27; after all the back and forth, the order was issued on May 14. So the initial timeline met the requirement of the law, but once you get into the back and forth of applications, comments, replies, etc. it can drag on. The award required airlines to start service no later than September, 2012.

Still, if it's not 60 days on the nose, it should be relatively quick.

It's also interesting to see what airlines applied for but did not get:

Alaska asked for (ranked order) PDX and SAN, and got PDX
JetBlue asked for SJU and AUS, and got SJU
Southwest asked for AUS and got AUS
Virgin America asked for SFO x2, and got SFO x1.

Air Canada asked for YVR
Frontier asked for COS
Sun Country asked for LAS

Nobody asked for SAT.

B6 already has a nonstop to SJU from DCA, so that more than anything would make San Juan unlikely. ABQ, on the other hand, has no nonstop from DCA and while NM isn't exactly NY or CA in terms of political clout, it's one of the larger metro areas not served from DCA. To that end, I think it really only takes looking at major cities without nonstop service from DCA outside the perimeter to predict where these routes will be established. I'll be shocked if we don't have our first SAN nonstop in this mix (it's the largest US airport without a DCA nonstop). Excluding HNL, which almost certainly won't happen, Sacramento (the area has six Congressmen and a lot of state officials who want this route) and San Antonio (another metro area that touches six Congressional districts) are the next largest airports without a DCA nonstop, so they'd be high on my list too. We could also see additional slots for SEA, PDX, LAS, or LAX depending on demand.

YVR is certainly interesting. I assume AC would use an A320. Is there that much demand??
Good point about Sun Country being in the mix as a limited incumbent. I'd forgotten about them.
You can bet your last $$ on SAT getting one this time.

Guesses on what is asked for:
AS: SAN (moves IAD flight)
WN: DEN
AA: SAT
DL: SEA (moves IAD flight)
F9: LAS
SY: LAS
UA I'm not sure, I think they would do LAX to get schedule parity with others, but an additional SFO may have more network benefits.

Breeze/Avelo being excluded is interesting, Breeze could potentially make use of such slots to much smaller cities without nonstop service such as ABQ.

To me for UA, it's Denver or bust. The 753 currently operating this route is coming in/going out nearly full every night when there's not significant delays. An AM DCA departure and PM arrival would add more options (especially with connections) to UA customers. I think UA would love a dual 738/MAX on this route for a very long time.

This is now a done deal https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/polit...ill/index.html
I will edit the top post on the thread when the DOT has awarded all of the 5 new slots.

Welp, WN applied for LAS. I had assumed WN would pick their largest station for DCA, but I get taking on a 1x daily AA flight compared to 3x F9 and 1x UA.

So:

AS: DCA-SAN
WN: DCA-LAS
AA: DCA-SAT
DL: DCA-SEA (assumed)
UA: DCA-??? (conventional wisdom assumes LAX as that's pretty much all UA can do based on the language of the statutory provision).

Don't think JetBlue will make a pitch?

arr those guesses? I know DCA-LAS is confirmed in reports.

WN has multiple one stop to DEN flights like thru MDE, OMA, OKC, and a few other cities

LAS or PHX allow them to fly to Hawaii and other route options beside denver with 1 stop+ 1 connection flight rules.

I expect the route to be something where you can go back and forth with Hawaii routes take an am departure and thrn land after 12 pm similar to what you can do with BWI now

UA's choice will depend a lot on what JetBlue does.

I'm sure UA's preference would be for another SFO, and given the size of the Bay Area's economy and with only 2 beyond perimeter flights, plus the fact that there's already a competitor on the route, there's a case to be made for SFO (if LAX has 4 flights, and Seattle would have 3, and Phoenix has 3... but SFO only has 2?). But it clearly is the least responsive to the requirements. If B6 doesn't apply, then UA can ask for SFO and there's basically no other option - and the law says the Secretary 'shall' issue these exemptions.

If B6 does apply, then I'd imagine UA's choice would depend on what they pick. LAX would be the safest choice and the easiest argument.

Spirit asking for DCA-SJC. https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/...t/default.aspx

Did not see that one coming... Unclear if they qualify as a "limited incumbent".

Delta confirms it's seeking SEA
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/travel/new...ts/ar-BB1nJNtp