In light of the economy (lowering rates) and new rules do you believe Marriot points are worth less? How much less?


For you say 120k pts = $1200?

No, points are worth much more to me. The following assumes maximizing use of points at the properties I use points at most often:

130000 points for 7 nights at Vail Marriott (Cat 6) = $3759 or 2.9� per point

120000 points for 5 nights at Vail Marriott (as Cat 6) = $2685 or 2.2� per point

140000 points for 5 nights at Vail Marriott (as Cat 7) = $2685 or 1.9� per point

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150000 points for 7 nights at Paris CE Marriott (Cat 7) = $5250 or 3.5� per point

160000 points for 5 nights at Paris CE Marriott (Cat 8) = $3750 or 2.3� per point

It depends what you use the points for. For travel packages, I would say at least 2 cents per point. I would factor in the opportunity cost of not getting points for an award stay, along with not paying taxes on award stays. With that type of a calculation, I can often redeem for 1.5-1.8 cents per point.

I am looking at a Cat 5 as a base reward.. Now it will be 5 nights at 100k pts

If one could get $1000 for 100k pts, that would mean the room would have to be more then $200/night to really see a benefit.

Of course one could always do Marriott Gift Cards (10% off) or priceline. With the first then you are looking at $220/night.

Getting cash now also earns interest/protects future decreases.

Guess an award is not as valuable as it used to be, but still has value. Cat 5 shows pts have depreciated by 21%.

I seldom redeem at category 5. Most of my awards are 1-2 nights at category 2-3 (often pointsavers) or travel packages at category 6-7.

Anyone..

In these times (with dec hotel prices and inc marriott pts to redeem, would you rather have $1200 or 120k Marriott points. Curious what others think...

Is this a thinly veiled attempt to buy someone's 120k points for $1200? I would always prefer cash to points. However, if what you're asking is whether I value 120k points at $1,200, then the answer is no. I can get at least double if not triple that amount by spending those points wisely.

I am not buying pts for $1200..

I am trying to accurately value all my miles/points...and getting opinions what they are worth.

A few random checks at Vail, during Feb ski season, show $299-$329/night and Paris in May through June at $530-$550/night. (Plus an assumed 10% for taxes).

The first values listed are good for 53 more days. They yields values of 1.36 and 1.98 cents per point.

The later values are under the new rates and I'll ignore the Paris CE at Cat 7 since it's already announced as a Cat. 8. This yields values of 1.46, 1.25, and 1.86 cents.

I would have said 1.25-1.5 cents under the new program (vs. 1.5-1.75 under the previous), and given the data points above that sounds about right. Especially since these are some of the more attractive (and unavailable) rewards available.


Personally, with 600K points and earning faster than I can burn, I'd take the $1200. I can earn interest on it and the MR point will inevitably be worth less if/when I get around to using those last marginal 120K points. That's why value varies by person, situation, amount.

Yes, prices have fallen at Vail since my post, and those rates are currently available from Jan-Mar. Taxes are 9.8% at Vail. Not as low as the $105/night I received back in 2003, but still much better than the normal $489/night.

Your Paris prices are partially correct... the numbers are correct, but the currency is not (at least for my dates). Paris CE prices are in Euros. While I did not check your dates, for the dates of my stay June 27-July 4 the least expensive rate is 599� ($750). During this past year's stay it was $1000 so even better use of points. Taxes are already included in the rate at Paris CE.

Between 1.5� and 2.0�.

Points sitting in your account unused have no monetary value. They are worth a fixed set of room nights. The price that those rooms might otherwise sell for can vary widely.

For me as a business traveler whose points were accumulated with no incremental cost to me, I do not stress too much over the cost/point ratio as _any_ point redemption is money that I don't have to spend.

Just a year ago I would take the points. Now I would take the cash. Point inflation along with capacity controls (or other games such as only 'non standard rooms available' as I'm sure will happen after Jan 17) makes cash more valuable. I cancelled my SPG Amex three months ago for this very reason and switched to a cash back card.

One can buy $1000 Marriott cheques with 135,000 points. So that will be my lowest valuation.

However, I sometimes can do four nights at a category 1 hotel for like 25,000 points. Since I do not want to travel outside of business travel, the special vacation packages do not do much for me.

Not sure how value of points will change in 2009.

Over the past 8 years I have cashed in 1.35m MR points. My average return is .022. Of course I have used these points at high cost properties in London, Paris, Rome, Aurba, Cancun, Hawaii, Florida, LA, and SF.

I have not included 3 travel packages (120k AA miles each) in these numbers, although if I did, the average would probably rise slightly . Most of the these miles were used domestically for our family of 6, with a few international flights thrown in.


Just my .02~! ^