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-   -   2019 Shutdown Thread (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/manufactured-spending/1948543-2019-shutdown-thread.html)

GundamWing01 Mar 2, 2019 9:30 pm


Originally Posted by coasttal (Post 30835998)
1. It was shutdown by Barclay due to "Account Useage". Not sure what that means.
2. Had card for 2 years and $30K CL
3. Average balance about $10K, but month of closure it was about $20K.
4. Average $10-15K per month in MS
5. Last month I paid balance 6x during month. Typically I would do this 2-3x per month.
6. Never did BP except from another bank. WF and Chase
7. Not sure of this question.

hmm.. doesnt scream "MS abuse", but im curious what the transactions looks like every month. are we talking same vendor multiple times per month? where did you MS? simon? and did you MS 10-15k for 2 years straight?

RedSun Mar 2, 2019 10:08 pm


Originally Posted by DjRocket (Post 30837789)
Greetings, I signed up my mother for a spend bonus promo on her Bonvoy personal CC, but she has only 3k CL. So to be meeting the bonus requirements ($25k a month) she would have to cycle the CL more than 8 times !! And thus three more times during the year. That's quite a bit of cycling. I definitely don't want AMEX to shut down her accounts, but also don't mind taking SOME risk. The question is, how much? Does anybody have a good sense to estimate the risk here? I know excessive cycling is risky but also curious if the low CL makes a diference, meaning cycling 50k CL 5 times is not the same as cycling 2k CL the same amount. Thanks!

Just curious to see what this "bonus" is. I'm not aware of such large bonus spending. The $60k free night spending is new and it is not even a good one.

RedSun Mar 2, 2019 10:12 pm


Originally Posted by radonc1 (Post 30839616)
I find it hard to believe that Amex or any other card purveyor does not have intimate knowledge of our spending habits. My wife's Amex cards (plat and Hilton) have both been hacked in the past 3 months and Amex fraud picked up the discrepancy in spending immediately. The hackers had done the usual $1 charge to see if the card worked and Amex let that sail, but as soon as they tried using it for a real charge (of between $100-300), it was denied immediately and I received alerts from them. They knew that the items the hackers were buying on-line were not in her spending history, so the algorithm just kicked it out.

So if your mother has a CL of $3k, you can bet that as soon as she starts spending $25K a month, rat's eyes are going to bulge :o:
Amex didn't give a CL of $3K/month for no reason at all. I would be very cautious pursuing this line of MS.

Agreed. This is just a huge credit cycling and is a no go.

But spending patterns can certainly change. I receive alerts from time to time when I use some inactive cards, or put on some "large" charges at drug store and gas stations where banks are very concerned with. But after the initial alerts, those cards are open up.

RedSun Mar 2, 2019 10:17 pm


Originally Posted by chaser123 (Post 30839774)
Just a data point not a recommendation as your CL is very low. I have 30k+ limit on several amex cards. Amex lets me charge over 100k on these cards on one shot. I regularly go over 2 times my limit. (I do not think this is cycling because I am not paying it down, but I could be wrong) . I primarly do this on the Bus Blue because they let you carry balance interest free up to your credit limit, so I do this to earn the free interest. Plus you get 2x up to 50k spend each year, so I max that out also. You just get a warning that you are over your CL. In the begging they would just automatically raise your limit. Now I see an option to click here if you want your limit raised. I do nothing and just pay amount over limit plus minimum. They have a tool on their website to check spending power. You can see how much over you are allowed.

This is not credit cycling. I get a Chase card with $50k CL. I can charge $40k and pay most off several days before statement closing. I get 20 days grace free period. The statement normally closed with like $2,000 balance, which I pay off rather quickly. Never have any problem.

GundamWing01 Mar 2, 2019 11:42 pm


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30841071)
Just curious to see what this "bonus" is. I'm not aware of such large bonus spending. The $60k free night spending is new and it is not even a good one.

https://www.doctorofcredit.com/live-...100000-points/

RedSun Mar 3, 2019 1:58 am


Originally Posted by GundamWing01 (Post 30841209)

It is a bad promotion IMO. You spend $25k to get 25,000 more points. This is not even enough for a 35,000 point hotel stay.

radonc1 Mar 3, 2019 5:41 am


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30841081)
Agreed. This is just a huge credit cycling and is a no go.

But spending patterns can certainly change. I receive alerts from time to time when I use some inactive cards, or put on some "large" charges at drug store and gas stations where banks are very concerned with. But after the initial alerts, those cards are open up.

I agree that spending patterns change. My point is that if they do, Amex will initially hold or decline the charge and alert me with a query as to whether I made the charge or not. For the past several months this has meant me chasing down the SO and asking her :eek:. The answer has been "no" for the fraud charges and I let Amex know. That instituted a whole plethora of events leading to a new card for the SO.
My initial point is simply that "they know ;)".
And anything out of the ordinary is going to be picked up initially by an algorithm and if blatant enough, by rats, and either is going to lead to probing questions.

DjRocket Mar 3, 2019 12:23 pm


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30841402)
It is a bad promotion IMO. You spend $25k to get 25,000 more points. This is not even enough for a 35,000 point hotel stay.

Well this effectively allows earning 3x per $1 spent just like the old SPG card did, which was a good deal. Unfortunately the Marriott points lost value and the deal is not that appealing any longer, but given the cost of getting these points - placing orders on GCM and cashing out is still low enough to pursue the benefit, but that of course is YMMV. The big question here is whether AMEX is forgiving enough to count GCs as eligible purchases in spite of T&C, but that is the subject for a different thread I suppose.

AzLarry Mar 3, 2019 1:55 pm


Originally Posted by DjRocket (Post 30842954)
Unfortunately the Marriott points lost value

This. I used the 3K/4K SPG category 2 rewards frequently to get ~3cpp but now those same hotels seem to be at least 30-50+% more points in the new program. (Sorry, off topic for this shutdown thread. Guess I'm just venting and justifying my decision to cancel my SPG Amex cards I've had for years and feel attached to them.)

RedSun Mar 3, 2019 3:12 pm


Originally Posted by DjRocket (Post 30842954)
Well this effectively allows earning 3x per $1 spent just like the old SPG card did, which was a good deal. Unfortunately the Marriott points lost value and the deal is not that appealing any longer, but given the cost of getting these points - placing orders on GCM and cashing out is still low enough to pursue the benefit, but that of course is YMMV. The big question here is whether AMEX is forgiving enough to count GCs as eligible purchases in spite of T&C, but that is the subject for a different thread I suppose.

Do the Math, for Marriott, you spend $25,000 and receive:
$25,000 x 3 MR x $0.009 (MR value?) = $675 total, or 75,000 MR points total.

For $25,000 spends on World of Hyatt card, I receive:
$25,000 x 1 Hyatt point x $0.02 (Hyatt point value) = $500, plus one free Cat 1-4 room and 10 Hyatt stay credit.

I would rather put the $25,000 spend on Hyatt card instead of Marriott cards.

You could do comparison of other hotel cards.

Sorry to side-track it...

GundamWing01 Mar 3, 2019 3:14 pm


Originally Posted by DjRocket (Post 30842954)
Well this effectively allows earning 3x per $1 spent just like the old SPG card did, which was a good deal. Unfortunately the Marriott points lost value and the deal is not that appealing any longer, but given the cost of getting these points - placing orders on GCM and cashing out is still low enough to pursue the benefit, but that of course is YMMV. The big question here is whether AMEX is forgiving enough to count GCs as eligible purchases in spite of T&C, but that is the subject for a different thread I suppose.

pretty sure amex is watching closely. especially if ur doing 100k of just GC for the entire year. but maybe if you spread it out monthly, you wont get noticed.


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30843530)
Do the Math, for Marriott, you spend $25,000 and receive:
$25,000 x 3 MR x $0.009 (MR value?) = $675 total, or 75,000 MR points total.

For $25,000 spends on World of Hyatt card, I receive:
$25,000 x 1 Hyatt point x $0.02 (Hyatt point value) = $500, plus one free Cat 1-4 room and 10 Hyatt stay credit.

I would rather put the $25,000 spend on Hyatt card instead of Marriott cards.

You could do comparison of other hotel cards.

Sorry to side-track it...

two totally different banks. thats a huge factor.

RedSun Mar 3, 2019 3:30 pm


Originally Posted by GundamWing01 (Post 30843537)
two totally different banks. thats a huge factor.

What is this huge factor that you spend $25,000 with Chase or AmEx? Of course it makes huge difference is someone is blacklisted with one of them....

DjRocket Mar 4, 2019 11:32 am


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30843530)
Do the Math, for Marriott, you spend $25,000 and receive:
$25,000 x 3 MR x $0.009 (MR value?) = $675 total, or 75,000 MR points total.

Well I myself invest more into the Hilton program for the reasons you mention, BUT, if the cost / benefit ratio (which is highly YMMV) is low enough for you, why not gain more? 75k MR gives you roughly two nights at a decent hotel. How much effort does it take to place a free shipping order on GCM and cash it out at a nearby WM? Considering GC fees - 1% CB, you get (roughly) a cost of $5 (incl. MO cost) x 13 orders (to reach $25k) = $65 + 13 (or less) trips to Walmart. Is it worth two nights, independently of your other gigs ?? Well... that's subjective. When the volume is low and I have an itch to go to Walmart, just out of habit, a trip there may actually feel rewarding LOL. So for *me* it is worth it, but who knows, maybe after a few trips, my attitude will change.

And yes, I'm very sorry to sidetrack this as well.

RedSun Mar 4, 2019 12:44 pm


Originally Posted by DjRocket (Post 30846798)
Well I myself invest more into the Hilton program for the reasons you mention, BUT, if the cost / benefit ratio (which is highly YMMV) is low enough for you, why not gain more? 75k MR gives you roughly two nights at a decent hotel. How much effort does it take to place a free shipping order on GCM and cash it out at a nearby WM? Considering GC fees - 1% CB, you get (roughly) a cost of $5 (incl. MO cost) x 13 orders (to reach $25k) = $65 + 13 (or less) trips to Walmart. Is it worth two nights, independently of your other gigs ?? Well... that's subjective. When the volume is low and I have an itch to go to Walmart, just out of habit, a trip there may actually feel rewarding LOL. So for *me* it is worth it, but who knows, maybe after a few trips, my attitude will change.

And yes, I'm very sorry to sidetrack this as well.

True, but not 100%. When you MS, are you happy to get $650 if you can get $750 instead with the same amount of effort?

DjRocket Mar 4, 2019 3:06 pm


Originally Posted by RedSun (Post 30847110)
True, but not 100%. When you MS, are you happy to get $650 if you can get $750 instead with the same amount of effort?

Of course $750, but your logic assumes "all things being equal", which they are not. I don't have the Hyatt card, per your example, and I can't get it since I'm over 5/24. To make this 3x Marriott cost/benefit unreasonable for me, you would need to compare the deal to the alternatives available to me : ). Besides, I'd rather have $100 worth of Marriott points than $100 worth of Hyatt due to its locations, again a highly ymmv factor.


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