I edited my original post, realizing that my hotel had directions in its website recommending the Narita Express and a cab ride from there.

Question, though: If I arrive at NRT at 3:30 on a Wednesday (10/11) is the Narita Express likely to be sold out? If so, what are my options? I can't make reservations from home in the US can I?

Put your mind at rest. The N'EX runs every few minutes. In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that the train you want is full, there will be another along after just a short wait. I've never seen an airport train "sell out."

Frankly, I'd rather take the Keisei Skyliner to Ueno and then take a cab from there. The cab ride will cost more but the train is less expensive, so it is probably close to a wash for total cost. The Skyliner is more comfortable than the N'Ex and never even close to full. Just MHO. YMMV.

The point is, don't stress about the trip from NRT to Tokyo. There is plenty of capacity. No need for reservations, which you can't easily get from abroad anyway.

JR

The NE'X doesn't run "every few minutes". It runs twice an hour, at :13 and :43. For the Seiyo Ginza, getting off at Ueno and taking a cab to the hotel is for certain going to be more than the difference in train fares. If you get out of the Yaesu side to Tokyo station, you can walk to the Seiyo Ginza, which is at the Kyobashi edge of Ginza. It is no more than a 10 minute walk from Tokyo station.

And yes, it will very rarely sell out, so you're OK. And even if it does sell out, you can always get on the train anyway and either stand or find an empty seat from a no-show.

I'm with Pickles on this. Can't imagine why you'd take a cab from Keisei Ueno instead, the time to get there would also be much longer.

Note that they declare the train a "sell out" when standard class seats are gone. In that case, in addition to standing room for Y500 less, you can sometimes still buy first class (green car) for about Y1600 more. Or you can wait 30 minutes; while I have also seen an occasional sellout, I don't recall ever seeing two in a row. That would probably only happen at very peak times, like the end of Golden Week.

It doesn't sell out most of the time unless you're right at some giant holiday like New Year or Golden Week.

Of course other alternatives include (not in any particular order)
-Keisei Skyliner to Ueno then taxi (or Ginza subway line from Ueno to Kyobashi Station, and walk from there)
-Keisei Limited express then taxi (or same subway connection as above)
-Airport bus to Tokyo Station or hotel near your hotel then taxi
-Narita Express standing room or green car to Tokyo Station then taxi.
-JR Rapid train departing NRT at the top of the hour to Tokyo, this train is a regular commuter train like the Keisei Limited Express.

If you're looking for the cheapest option, and don't mind riding in a regular commuter train or have too much luggage to lug around, the Keisei Limited Express to Keisei Ueno and Subway connection at Ueno is the cheapest.

There are a bunch of other options i'm sure thats out there and I can't think of, but I don't think the Nex will sell out to begin with.

Ok, ok!

I guess my deep-seated Skyliner vs. N'EX bias is showing. I would most likely use Skyliner to Ueno and subway to Ginza but that is probably not the best suggestion for a first timer.

OP, the follow-on posts are better than mine. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

JR

What no one has recommended the Taxi or Helicopter service yet?

I lost all respect for a colleague of mine when I sent him an e-mail in ALL CAPS telling him NOT TO TAKE A TAXI, and he went ahead and did it anyway.

LOL... now talk about a colleague with an EXPERIENCE to boot! I can imagine that guy be like "Now you tell me about these $200-250 fares!"

Sanosuke!

Probably a Red Sox fan.

Thanks guys. I think I will try the Skyliner w/ subway connection. I suppose I can always bail and take a cab the rest of the way if I get tired/lost. Does anyone know an online source for a map I can print to help me walk from Kyobashi Station to the hotel? I usually swear by Map24 but of course there is no Asia component

http://www.seiyo-ginza.com/i/pdf/HotelMap.pdf

The hotel map recommends exit 2 from Kyobashi subway station.

This map also provides instructions for walking from Tokyo Station. I'd be inclined to go that way. (Exit Tokyo from the Yaesu South exit - Do not use the marunouchi exit which is mentioned on the hotel map).

Here's the google map - which you could print in case you need to show a taxi driver or ask someone directions. But unless you read kanji and understand the Japanese address system, I would say that the map from the hotel is probably easier to use.
http://www.google.co.jp/maps?f=q&hl=...8&om=1&iwloc=A

Many people, including me, swear by the Kodansha Tokyo City Atlas - A Bilingual Guide. Yes, it's an old fashioned book...but I've found it invaluable. It includes both kanji and romanized words.

IIRC, 30 seconds from your hotel is design gallery, with a little museum for a Toto-like company. The name escapes me, I'll try to post it, when I remember. They have the usual kitchen and bath displays, but also some interesting ceramic tile displays. While I visited, the museum had a nifty display showing owner built houses. That sort of thing is loads of fun, for me, YMMV. My favorite Tokyo restaurant is a simple straight eight block walk from your hotel. It's a yakiniku in the basement of the Hanamasa store, beneath the freeway. Again, it's loads of fun, especially if you are sharing with others. There is no communication stress, as you pick your own food and cook it at your table. I've never had better ice cream, anywhere in the world.

Edited to Add: The design gallery is INAX Gallery, event schedules can be found here.

This will seem strange, since I started the Skyliner idea in the first place, but you might want to think about it some more. I just noticed your planned arrival time. A 3:30 pm arrival at NRT will put you on the train around 4:30 and arriving at Ueno some time around 5:30 - 6:00 pm or so. The rush hour will be in full swing and subways will be very difficult if you have much luggage OR if you aren't familiar with where you are going and how to get there. In this particular case, the N'EX or even the airport Limousine Bus might be worth considering.

Just a little something to confuse you even more.

JR