I understand that trains can get quite crowded during Golden Week.

We're landing NRT on April 30 at 3:10pm, heading to Osaka.

We can take a J fare on JAL at 6:30pm for Ą15,740. Problem with that is that we are unprotected on that flight, so if we get in late or mis-connect in Chicago we are out of luck (just out $250, but still, stuck at NRT).

We have a dear friend in Japan who could book us reserved tickets 5:44pm N'ex to Shinagawa to the Nozomi for pickup at NRT. My question is: what if we miss that train due to late arriving aircraft from Chicago? Would a reserved green car ticket be voided if the reservation is missed? Even if the ticket is not voided, will the Tokaido be so busy on that Thursday evening that we might not get a seat at all, or be forced to stand in a non-reserved car?

This would be a no-brainer...but it being Golden Week has me nervous even though it is only the Thursday of Golden Week, so am just trying to do some worst-case scenario planning in deciding the way forward.

If you miss a train for which you have a ticket, generally you can go as a standing room passenger on a later train that day, if there is space. You can grab a seat if there are vacancies, but if there aren't, you'll be standing for 2 1/2 hours.

What's your secret for arranging previously purchased train ticket pickup at NRT? I guess your friend could be there waiting to hand them to you, but other than that, I've no clue how one does this. Maybe a guru can elucidate.

Personally, I'd take the risk and go for the flight. You could be 2 hours late and still easily make it, especially if you don't check bags and hurry to immigration on arrival.

I don't think April 30 will be a peak travel date this year. See the commentary on the following page:
www.japan-guide.com/e/e2282.html

Although GW peak days can be nightmares, the non-peak days are really no big deal IME.

That's kind of how we are leaning. And maybe not even bothering to get tickets in advance. My understanding is that, particularly for green car, there ought to be SOME sort of reservation available when we arrive NRT since, although it is GW, it is not a peak day.

The idea was to purchase and reserve a train ticket on the Japanese language website and pick up at NRT station. It appears this is allowed.

But if you need to pick something up at JR in NRT then you might get stuck behind a queue of tourists spending 45 min at the travel center with the agents in doing their JR pass travel planning. I guess you can try to cut the queue.

I would just try to get on the first possible NEX. I suppose if you have a 10+ min time window before the NEX then you can work the machines and book the Shinkansen as well.

My understanding is that you are free to rebook on the same day, so I don't think you will be relegated to the unreserved section. I once took an earlier train and I just went up to the window and rebooked it. The green car rarely fills up. Maybe the rules are different if you miss your train.

If picking up tickets booked via JR ekinetto, the OP would do so from the ticket machines or ticket office (midori no madoguchi), not the JR Travel Center for tourists, right? However, whether it's even possible to pick up tickets without the card used to purchase the tickets, I'm not sure. Perhaps the OP's friends had thought of a way to make this work.
It strikes me as altogether unnecessary, since the trains won't be full that day.

Well the deadline was approaching on the reserved (but unticketed) JAL flight, so I just pulled the trigger on those. Worst case, $260 loss and we'll just knock on wood that we can take the train option without much trouble if we are that late or misconnect at ORD...we're in paid GF on UA so maybe they'll hold the plane for us there if we are running late (yeah, RIGHT! )

Turns out (based on the seat selection configuration that showed offset seats) that this flight NRT-ITM appears to be a JAL 767 with the sky suites in J. Not that it matters all that much on such a short flight if it ends up being 'classic' J.

Now to find a hotel in Osaka/Kyoto during GW proper...the Ritz wants Ą 132,000 per night at the weekend!

Certainly appreciate the advice. It gives me peace of mind.

JAL class J: "The cost is only Ą1,000 more than your airfare." (standby or certain advance fares)

A longer seat pitch and a drink.

Air pass type fare is 10000 - 13000 per segment. J standby + 1000.

It is not possible without the card. Moreover, you need a card with PIN to pick up from the machine... I know this because I missed a train on Sunday after forgetting that I hadn't requested a PIN for my (Japan-issued) AMEX and having to wait in line for 10 minutes at the ticket office.

Thanks for confirming.