In regards to AQ's future, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced they're going under REALLY SOON!

If, and when this happens, one may want to consider how to add the 11,000+ daily seats that need to be made up, as well as the lost cargo space. All would preferably be done in an effective and cost-efficient matter. The RJ theory can solve the pax shortfalls, but this would mean a total interisland fleet of at least fifteen RJs for it to be viable. That and the structure for interisland travel will have to change to keep HNL running efficiently.

AQ's cargo contracts are another story. Their all-cargo flights will be somewhat difficult to do on an RJ (if at all possible). I see a couple options with this one:

1) The (3) 737-200s for cargo will be kept around until a suitable replacement is found (I'm hinting at another 737 variant or an E190 pax/cargo quick-change, a first for that line if it's possible)

2) The RJs will carry limited cargo and the bulky contracts will be transferred to other companies.

3) Fleet simplification. The new fleet choice (one A/C type) will be QC capable and suited for the interisland market.


Of course this is just my mind wandering, but it's never harmful to think of what can happen.

asu-ua772

what seems to be missing is any explanation of how you came to that conclusion. how is this not just fud from a hawaiian flier?

Let's not be bitter now randyqx. The majority of my travel is on UA, and I would love to see AQ survive through it all (for the interisland award benefits, but I have some HA miles stashed away that are going to expire next year), even if that means emerging as a leaner, efficient airline. But given what they've done and what's happened since entering Ch. 11 [Rejected & repo'ed A/C],[AQ suing it's own pilots], [Giving Banmiller MORE], [Constant breakdowns of the 732 fleet], I remain very skeptical that they will make it out with minimal damage sustained to it's service.

You should have read that my previous post was just me thinking. It's not like I have the definitive answer to AQ's woes.

I hope they survive I have 4 tickets flying them at the end of Janaury.

Say they go belly up. All the tickets are paid for by credit card. Would I get my money back because no service was rendered?

People want more than RJ's on the Mainland too. Especially when the airlines are pawning these pests off on 1,500 mile flights.
Unfortunately, the people have little say over what type of aircraft they are flying. Especially when you have a monkey-see, monkey-do situation where most airlines are downsizing to RJ's.
As much as I despise RJ's, I could almost live with them inter-island due to the short distances. It's the 3 1/2 - 4 hour flights where the RJ's become downright nasty IMO.


You sure will.

I agree with Cholula not only because he distributes (or used to, for that matter) a great hot sauce, but because his words are sound to the market. I'm a hoper of change and perhaps someday down the future, Hawaii will accept that not everything has to be jet-powered aircrafts. We'll see how FlyHawaii performs in that regard.

Otherwise, why not an ERJ170/175/190/195? Those are much larger than the dinky ERJs that most mainland airlines fly and they have that jet airliner feel. Not as big as a 717 or a B732, but still a nice compromise.

That's without considering the operating costs of the EJRs, however. I read somewhere that those babies cost a pretty penny to run. Can't imagine that Aloha's 737-200s are any cheaper, though.

You forget that there are alternatives out there already. Island air would take up a great deal of slack. Aloha Island air is a separate company and has the same United agreements, dont they? Wouldn't they, couldn't they expand their fleet much easier than Hawaiian could?

Plus the loss of Aloha would spur another carrier within 18 months, or perhaps United themselves entering the market with their Regional jets in some fashion. heck they might unmothball a few aircraft for that.

Or one other option. "interisland ferry". thats on the horizon, and only one air carrier would definitely speed this option along.

Cargo would not be an issue. There are enough freight forwarders on Oahu to take up the slack. They are just a tad more expensive and would become cheaper than hawaiian once hawaiian is the "only option".

just got back from vacation in Hawaii. Went to Hilo. outbound to hilo on aloha. Lost luggage, delays, very old and decrepid aircraft. Employees talking openly with other employees about having interviews with Hawaiian Airlines.

Flew back from hilo to Oahu. On Hawaiian. New, crisp, clean jets. Full seats. Smiles. Luggage arrived quickly and ontime. Employees openly talking about Aloha Airlines as "not looking good" when I asked them about how much longer they will last. I dont know who that other person who said it was, but I must say that I agree with them.

Oh..and my uncle works for aloha cargo. hes actively shopping for a new job.

Ok, this might be my opinion and what I hear around the airport. Maybe the Chings and Ings set up the sale of Island Air to get around the scope clause. They sell Island Air and let it grow with bigger airplanes during this period they drain any remaining money from Aloha and around the time the owners have the chance to buy back Island Air (2008 and 2010) they disolve Aloha and repurchase Island Air. They get around the union and now they have a lean and cheap workforce with nice new Q400's.

If any new airlines want to come in to Hawaii they need to pay off the local officials, everyone is going to want their palms greased. Also if HAL (but I doubt) get more aircraft and uses remaining gates it would be hard to get gate space.


But who knows, Hawaiian can't figure out how to take advantage of the increased flying to Hawaii and Aloha's owner are secretive about their real intentions. Status Quo is the best but I don't think it's going to happen this time.

Also does anyone know what the provisions of the Goldman-Sachs loan, rumour has it that AQ is only paying interest until OCT and then they will have to pay P+I. Heard that Goldman-Sachs is pushing AQ to get out of the transpac business and get back in to InterIsland business only, anybody hear anything?

Good input ezmonee
The first few days of an Aloha demise would be the hardest. Reaccomodating "stranded" pax and all. If they go down around the time Island Air acquires their Q400s and/or FlyHawaii starts up, things may not be that bad and the market can hold until another carrier can establish themselves. Now that I think about cargo, it shouldn't be too much of a hassle ever since Aloha Cargo lost that huge contract (was it the UPS contract???) and reduced their total load. Besides, you're right. Enough forwarders are around to pick up this slack.

Your AQ interisland experience is pretty much the same as mine. Doing research on the AQ fleet, their 732s are some of the younger 732s around (if anybody can believe that)! All of them were built and delivered new to other carriers during the 1980s, acquired by Aloha in the late 1990s.

BinaryBot ,
Very interesting stuff you bring to the thread. I hope others can elaborate on it more so to see where Aloha is heading.

The problem, if any, is that AQ has flown these birds on 100 mile sectors, not 400-1000 miles like others so unique issues may arise as has been previously demonstrated. I am getting nervous with all this talk and will now likely purchase my remaining flight on Hawaiian, not that it will make much difference as I won't be on the island of departure unless AQ or someone get me there

beware of hawaiian. there is a rumor that all their planes will fall out of the sky next week. </sarcasm>

if you let the fud spread by folk with axes to grind scare you, you'll spend your life being driven by folk with whom you would not break bread.

i'm not sure how you can determine what people's axes to grand are.

we who live here full time and must use airlines as one would a bus or train on the mainland, are intimately familiar with the ins and outs of aq and ha.

in a way not usually obvious to visitors or part-time residents, hawaii is a very small place.

sometimes it is a bit more obvious, like when one looks at the ff programs to which the poster belongs and it correlates will with them dissing the competition.

i'll 'fess up to not knowing ha more than a couple vacation flights koa-hnl-ppt etc., which we liked. and we have not lived here full time all that long, nor were out great grandparents born here, and most of our aq flights are koa-hnl to hop ua to the office in tokyo and meetings beyond, or ua from koa toward the mainland (sea office) and beyond.

that said, for the koa/hnl jumps, aq and ha do not seem all that different. and darned if i will get suckered toward one or the other by the fud spread by ffs of the other.
actually, it's kinda large. it's just that everybody is at about max two degrees of separation. if you grew up in a very small town, it's not a major change.

i know you cant be talking about me! Besides, I occasionally fly Non Rev on Aloha, depending on my estranged wife's mood. Lately ive had to pay for flying. Theres a very valid reason I am not an Aloha pass member. its called United miles.