newsmanhoss

That would be outstanding. YX had tried that route earlier...Perhaps DL could make it work better, though, by attracing more pax from RDU.

CMK10

I think YX tried it twice (once in the early 2000s, once in 2007 with a CRJ) and then F9 tried it for around a year. Here's hoping DL can do what they couldn't!

knope2001

With the new Southwest/AirTran schedule out for fall, I thought it would be a good time to see what the fallout from cuts have been. I compared the second half of November 2011 with what is schedule for the second half of November 2012. With how changeable Southwest’s schedule is (every week or two it changes in the 11/03 – 01/04 period) it was hard to pin down the best day to pick for a comparison. These are weekday domestic departing numbers

Flights
164 in 2011
125 in 2012
-23.8% (reduction of 39)

Seats
15,640 in 2011
12813 in 2012
-18.1% (reduction of 2827)

Nonstop destinations
41 in 2011
29 in 2012
-29.3% (reduction of 12….8 Frontier and 4 Airtran/Southwest)

Here’s a table of nonstop destinations sorted by change in weekday seats from late last November to late this coming November. For 2011 stats I did a quick pull of actual data and then did my best to try and pick out the typical weekday capacity for late November, so there could be a little play in those numbers, especially on Delta. But the general story should be pretty much on the money.

These columns show weekday flights and seats to cities in 2011 and the same in 2012. They are sorted by change in seats. When there's a notable change in capacity, I made mention of the carrier or carriers primarily responsible. For example, MKE-MSP was 9 flights with 1082 seats in 2011, and is planned for 11 flights with 1487 seats in 2012. That’s a gain of 405 seats, and is a difference primarily caused by AirTran/Southwest changes.

2011 fl … 2011 seats …. 2012 fl … 2012 seats …….. change …...... city…......key change
09 …………… 1082 …………… 11 …………… 1487 ……………. 405 …………… msp……..wn/fl
10 …………… 1368 …………… 12 …………… 1640 ……………. 272 …………… atl…….....wn/fl and dl
08 …………… 0888 …………… 08 …………… 0926 ……………. 038 …………… den
08 …………… 0961 …………… 09 …………… 0991 ……………. 030 …………… lga
02 …………… 0074 …………… 02 …………… 0100 ……………. 026 …………… rhi
04 …………… 0200 …………… 04 …………… 0200 ……………. 000 …………… cle
04 …………… 0220 …………… 04 …………… 0220 ……………. 000 …………… clt
03 …………… 0150 …………… 03 …………… 0150 ……………. 000 …………… cvg
01 …………… 0137 …………… 01 …………… 0137 ……………. 000 …………… sea
02 …………… 0274 …………… 00 …………… 0274 ……………. 000 …………… stl
12 …………… 0582 …………… 12 …………… 0582 ……………. 000 …………… ord
05 …………… 0660 …………… 05 …………… 0659 …………… -001 …………… phx
03 …………… 0353 …………… 03 …………… 0351 …………… -002 …………… rsw
04 …………… 0216 …………… 04 …………… 0200 …………… -016 …………… iah
05 …………… 0250 …………… 04 …………… 0200 …………… -050 …………… ewr……..f9
03 …………… 0150 …………… 02 …………… 0100 …………… -050 …………… mem…….dl
05 …………… 0302 …………… 05 …………… 0250 …………… -052 …………… phl……...dl
02 …………… 0074 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -074 …………… mbl……..f9
02 …………… 0216 …………… 01 …………… 0137 …………… -079 …………… fll…….....f9
02 …………… 0087 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -087 …………… fnt….…..f9
05 …………… 0645 …………… 04 …………… 0554 …………… -091 …………… bwi……..wn/fl
06 …………… 0615 …………… 06 …………… 0516 …………… -099 …………… dtw……..dl
02 …………… 0100 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -100 …………… bna……..f9
02 …………… 0100 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -100 …………… cmh……..f9
02 …………… 0100 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -100 …………… ind……...f9
02 …………… 0100 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -100 …………… oma……..f9
02 …………… 0100 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -100 …………… pit….…..f9
03 …………… 0371 …………… 02 …………… 0260 …………… -111 …………… tpa……..wn/fl
01 …………… 0117 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -117 …………… msy……..wn/fl
04 …………… 0409 …………… 02 …………… 0280 …………… -129 …………… bos……..f9
02 …………… 0274 …………… 01 …………… 0137 …………… -137 …………… lax……...wn/fl
02 …………… 0274 …………… 01 …………… 0137 …………… -137 …………… sfo……...wn/fl
01 …………… 0137 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -137 …………… srq……...wn/fl
03 …………… 0150 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -150 …………… grr……...f9
05 …………… 0666 …………… 04 …………… 0510 …………… -156 …………… mco……..wn/fl
06 …………… 0555 …………… 04 …………… 0380 …………… -175 …………… dfw……..f9
07 …………… 0821 …………… 05 …………… 0607 …………… -214 …………… dca……..f9
02 …………… 0234 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -234 …………… cak……..wn/fl
02 …………… 0234 …………… 00 …………… 0000 …………… -234 …………… dsm…….wn/fl
06 …………… 0823 …………… 04 …………… 0554 …………… -269 …………… las….…..f9 and wn/fl
05 …………… 0571 …………… 02 …………… 0274 …………… -297 …………… mci….…..f9

November isn't the perfect time to judge the affects of Frontier's pullbacks because many of them already took place prior to November. But the new WN/FL schedule sparked this comparison, in part because these are the first new schedules rolled out since Frontier's last round of cuts was unveiled.

The capacity reduction of 18.1% is on top of last November's reduction of around 13%. Last November already included quite a few Frontier cuts. About 1/3 of this coming Novembers 2800+ seat reduction actually comes from AirTran/Southwest reducing capacity. They're flying a flight or two fewer to Florida, Vegas, and the west coast, plus we're losing Akron, Sarasota, New Orleans and Des Moines. Some of that is offset by them nearly doubling capacity to MSP.

Obviously Rhinelander will go at some point, but beyond that I don't see us losing many more destinations. West coast nonstops are always in danger of (at least) seasonal drops, but most of the rest of these destinations are hubs and/or high-volume markets so we might be nearly the end of drops. Capacity is another matter. Southwest (which is taking over all domestic Milwaukee flying from AirTran except for DCA, ATL, TPA, MCO and RSW in November) generally doesn't do banked hubs the way AirTran did, and so I'm skeptical that they'll be able to support 137- and 143-seat aircraft in some of these markets without tight hub feed. MSP is the most glaring example, where capacity and frequency is up but connectivity is down -- especially with MKE-BOS down to 2x and MKE-DCA on Southwest being 0x (since they don't connect to AirTran, which is keeping MKE-DCA). I wish I could say this was the trough for MKE capacity, but I have concerns that it isn't.

FWIW I'm not sure if this is really the right place to post this stuff long term, but at least for the moment the de facto home of MKE discussion seems to remain here. The AirTran board was somewhat fertile, but that board won't be around forever, and with Southwest taking everything but ATL, DCA and three Florida cities it probably makes more sense on the WN board. But that board is far more active and varied, and a discussion othread f MKE doesn't seem to fit over there either. So at least for now, I guess it's here. This thread does at least still address YOY cuts which invoved Frontier, but increasingly any talk of MKE will be less and less affected by Frontier.

kannon99

I'm hearing more talk of a gate shuffle at MKE. Delta would move to D, taking over the F9 club and F9 would go down to one gate. E would be shut down but I am not too sure where UA/CO would go. It sounds like a deal already may be in place for this shuffle.

knope2001

When I played around with the new November schedule, Southwest could get by with as few as four gates (one tight spot with about 15 min between flights) or would be confortable with five. If nothing else happens sooner, WN will at least need a few more gates by then on D. Putting jetway on 55, plus taking 51 and 53 would give them 5. But when all of FL joins WN they'll probably need at least 6 or 7 total unless they scale back more.

traveller001

Nov 4th FL has just 16 flights left. Sat MKE-CUN continues. Charters over winter still continue. It's apparent MKE is the first large FL station transitioning.

FL currently has 8 gates leased on C...

From what I see in the afternoons F9 seems to have 3-4 aircraft at gates for sometimes long periods. Mostly ERJs. Going down to just one gate would mean more cuts or radical schedule changes.

MikeFromMKE

I wonder if Delta would technically be "subleasing" from F9, in which F9 gave them really favorable rates and as part of the deal F9 gets a good deal on DL miles that they have to buy to cover the one time transition of F9 miles to DL miles.

I still think its more plausible that WN ends up on C with FL. If in fact DL moves to D then C would have a lot more breathing room and FL already leases a bunch of gates.

The ERJs will be parked soon. The 4x flights to DEN and the sporadic MCO and DCA service can probably fit in one gate. Two if they want to be extra comfortable. And since it sounds like FL will retain the Apple charters this year they probably won't need any additional gates for the seasonal service.