A few competitive adjustment have recently come out at MKE:

Southwest

MKE-MCO is dropping from 2x to 1x on March 13, and is a 5:55pm departure with a morning return. The reduction of MCO by Southwest suggests general overcapacity in the city pair. Of course one can point to the upcoming merger with AirTran as setting this up, but it's terribly early to see that kind of immediate unofficial collusion in what is a peak time in a barnburner market. I think it's mostly about Southwest having a hard time getting traction.

They aren't going to help themselves with their departure times...the only nonstop to TPA is 3:55pm and the only nonstop to MCO is at 5:55pm. Morning departures are key in Florida sun markets.

MKE-MCI is remaining at 2x, but the flight times are moving from business friendly times to mid-day. MKE-MCI is at 10:40am and 2:15pm, while the returns leave MCI at 11:30am and 3:25pm. Not useless, but the morning flight is too late to see a client before lunch, and the afternoon flight is so early that you can't really see a client after lunch. (Nicely timed if you're flying to just to have lunch with a client, however.)


AirTran

The additional red-eyes for MKE-LAX-MKE and MKE-SFO-MKE are pulled for the dead of winter period.

MKE-LAX is still 2x/day at about 9:00am and 9:00pm. A second evening flight at about 6:45pm which was to operate a couple days per week is pulled, as well as the corresponding 11:45pm redeye return.

MKE-SFO's is still 1x/day daytime, but an evening redeye operating a couple days per week was also pulled for the dead of winter.

The pulled MKE-SFO redeye is still in the schedule for the spring break peak period, but the 3rd MKE-LAX isn't.

A couple of AirTran additions which they put out in a PR item today, although they were bookable awhile already:

MKE-PHX returns in December 1x, with the second red-eye flight operating right around Christmas and then again for mid-March through early May.

MKE-TPA gets a morning flight starting March 8th. The release makes it seem like MKE-TPA doesn't start until 3/8, but it does appear the existig afternoon flight operates prior to that.

On a separate but related note, I posted speculation on the Southwest post-merger MKE hub on the AirTran board. Probably of interest to some here, but more approriate on that board.

Something I just realized with the AirTran press release. For January, February and the first week of March, the only morning flight to the Tampa Bay area will be Frontier's flight to St Petersburg

7:38am Frontier to PIE
2:00pm AirTran to TPA
3:30pm Southwest to TPA
3:43pm AirTran to SRQ

Given the high preference for morning flights to Florida, I'm kind of surprised that the flight to PIE will be it for the morning. Definitely an advantage which will help the change to St Pete.

FYI, when you search "Tampa" or "TPA" on Travelocity, Expedia, or Orbitz, you get both Tampa and St Pete results, which whill help them in their move, too. If people had to specifically know to inqiure on PIE that would make their success more difficult.

I don't get why airTran and Southwest are hot on these afternoon flights. Mornings have been the only way to go for me when I go to TPA. PIE is a 10 minutes farther from my home, but manageable. this might help DL. You can leave at 6am and get into TPA a little past 11 with a quick connect in ATL.

Am I the only one who prefers evening flights to Floridia? I like getting a full day of work in here at MKE, flying down to Florida, and then having the whole day at my disposal when I wake up.

Like flying back to MKE in the evening, too.

Plus, airports are just a lot less crowded when flying at night. Of course, there are fewer opportunities left in the day if your evening flight is canceled.

I think we tightwads do not like paying for an extra hotel night. Get us down there early in the morning, with a return at the end of the day.

Evening flights...even redeyes...have their allure for some. But when I watch seatmaps, Florida in particular has a heavy morning bias. Afternoon flights, especially after maybe 3-4pm or so, are often dogs except at peak times.

Phoenix and Vegas don't seem as bad, and PHX in particular sometimes for YX had better loads on the 1:25pm versus the 7:10am, which always kind of surprised me. My only guess is that is partly due to the time change and partly due to the type of travelers:

Flights to Florida lose an hour, so unless you go in the earlier morning you arrive in the afternoon. And plenty of families head down to see Mickey or the grandparents on tighter timeframes and tighter budgets.

Flights to Phoenix and Vegas gain two hours, so there's less reason for a leisure traveler to get up early for a 7:00am flight so they can land in Phoenix before 9:00am. Phoenix has plenty of retirees and winter-home people, and Vegas is a 24-hour city. So going in the afternoon doesn't necessarily "waste" a day like it does to Florida.

Obviously those are sweeping generalizations, but I think the psychology kind of fits a lot of travelers.