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Here comes Branson....mach II

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Old May 10, 2010 | 12:59 pm
  #1  
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Here comes Branson....mach II

Milwaukee-Branson is coming starting July 1st, three times per week, primarily sold as Frontier:

From Milwaukee
9:00am - 10:30am operates Saturdays
4:30pm - 6:00pm operates Tuesdays/Thursdays


From Branson
11:00am - 12:30pm operates Saturdays
2:10pm - 3:40pm operates Tuesdays/Thursdays


The Denver-Branson service is being upped at the same time to five days per week from the current three. From how things sound so far, Branson is doing very well from Denver.

The BKG-MKE flights are listed as E170 on the YX website and E190 on the F9 website, so it's not clear which will be used.

Obviously it will be interesting to see how well MKE-BKG does this time compared to AirTran's results. Planes are (at least somewhat) smaller this time. And there is a significantly broader array of connections this time than when AirTran tried it. Also, I don't know the subsidy/revenue guarantee situation which either AirTran or Frontier has for this service.

I wonder if they will be successful selling this as part of vacation packages.

During the week (tues/thurs) the new trips are being "funded" with lift from the Denver side of the operation. So nothing has to be trimmed at MKE to add these flights. On Saturdays the lift for this flight comes from the Milwaukee side of the operation, but I think that there is mid-morning slack in MKE on Saturdays to use.
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Old May 10, 2010 | 1:35 pm
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When seeing the title to this thread my first thought was that Republic and Virgin had announced a codeshare/alliance.

Instead, it was the somewhat bizarre addition of thrice weekly Milwaukee-Branson service.

There must be some sort of subsidy for this flight. Otherwise, I simply can't figure out why Frontier thinks they can make this route work. Yes, they will be using smaller planes and offering more connecting opportunities than AirTran. Yet, that still doesn't mean this is a route anyone should fly. Just because you decide to fly a route doesn't mean people will come.

The local market between Milwaukee and Branson has to be virtually non-existent. Are tour package crowds really the type of customer Frontier is after these days?
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Old May 10, 2010 | 1:55 pm
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Originally Posted by BlueHorseShoe2000
The local market between Milwaukee and Branson has to be virtually non-existent. Are tour package crowds really the type of customer Frontier is after these days?
If Frontier is smart they could partner with the tour companies that charter buses to Branson from the Midwest as an alternative. Otherwise I agree that this route will be a hard sell. I am curious enough now that I may book a trip to Branson to see for myself.
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Old May 10, 2010 | 2:08 pm
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Not as bizarre as when AirTran tried it last year, but still somewhat bizarre.

I predict this route will be dropped as soon as the incentives go away.

If the incentives stick around, I still only give the route a 50/50 chance.
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Old May 10, 2010 | 2:10 pm
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Originally Posted by flyYX
I am curious enough now that I may book a trip to Branson to see for myself.
Perhaps there's more to Branson than meets the eye.

I'll await your first hand account
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Old May 10, 2010 | 2:13 pm
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Originally Posted by BlueHorseShoe2000
When seeing the title to this thread my first thought was that Republic and Virgin had announced a codeshare/alliance.

Instead, it was the somewhat bizarre addition of thrice weekly Milwaukee-Branson service
LOL
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Old May 10, 2010 | 5:08 pm
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After seeing it go away so quickly when AirTran tried it, I think they would be hard pressed to continue after the end of August.

We've all seen stranger things happen, so expect anything.
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Old May 10, 2010 | 5:58 pm
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Here is the press release.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fronti....html?x=0&.v=1

We are thrilled with Frontiers rapid expansion in the Branson market and with the opportunities now offered to the Branson community, stated Jeff Bourk, Branson Airports executive director. Milwaukee service has been a highly-requested destination and were extremely pleased with the increase in Denver service.
Really? MKE has been highly-requested destination? Maybe, I don't know.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 7:51 am
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According to the press release, MKE-BKG is seasonal service. On the surface, that makes some sense. Yet, service runs through December 15th. What kind of season is that? I have doubts about this route lasting that long, but perhaps that's when the subsidies end. Why not extend it through Christmas/New Years to capture some of the peak holiday traffic?

Speaking of seasonal service, I wouldn't fall over in shock to see MKE-SFO/SAN service ending earlier than planned. Bookings and yields don't appear to be so hot on these two routes. The aircraft fleet is stretched pretty thin, but I think it was a mistake to switch MKE-SFO from a day-time flight to a red-eye. It would be great if service could be maintained yera-round using E190s during the slower months.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 7:55 am
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Originally Posted by BlueHorseShoe2000
Speaking of seasonal service, I wouldn't fall over in shock to see MKE-SFO/SAN service ending earlier than planned. Bookings and yields don't appear to be so hot on these two routes. The aircraft fleet is stretched pretty thin, but I think it was a mistake to switch MKE-SFO from a day-time flight to a red-eye. It would be great if service could be maintained yera-round using E190s during the slower months.
I agree with your assessment, and suspect that AirTran is gaining some traction at least on the MKE-SFO route, which I would think leans more leisure than business. These travelers are more price sensitive, and AirTran's fares are considerably lower for most travel dates, based on a spot check this morning on that route. Plus, AirTran has a better schedule at 2x/day.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 7:57 am
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Originally Posted by newsmanhoss
Not as bizarre as when AirTran tried it last year, but still somewhat bizarre.

I predict this route will be dropped as soon as the incentives go away.

If the incentives stick around, I still only give the route a 50/50 chance.
No you are incorrect on this one. It is MORE bizarre that they will try to do this when it failed so poorly with Air Tran. What are these people thinking? I think that Blue is correct and they must get some subsidy from the tourist board down there.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 8:17 am
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Originally Posted by newsmanhoss
I agree with your assessment, and suspect that AirTran is gaining some traction at least on the MKE-SFO route, which I would think leans more leisure than business. These travelers are more price sensitive, and AirTran's fares are considerably lower for most travel dates, based on a spot check this morning on that route. Plus, AirTran has a better schedule at 2x/day.
Simply put, there is way too much capacity on MKE-West Coast routes this summer.

While Frontier offers multiple connections through MCI and DEN, AirTran has a big advantage with a superior non-stop schedule to SEA, SFO, and SAN.

Details of the fall schedule should start emerging in the next couple of weeks and I'm interested to see what happens in MKE. It's been somewhat surprising to see continued pull-backs in leisure markets like LAX and LAS.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 8:30 am
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They probably get subsidies and they have a lot of opportunity for east coast connections that branson could only get through Atlanta via Airtran currently.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 9:27 am
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Originally Posted by BlueHorseShoe2000
Perhaps there's more to Branson than meets the eye.

I'll await your first hand account
Been there. Think The Dells meets Nashville meets The Ozarks. Acts like Andy Williams, Barbara Fairchild, Jim Stafford, Moe Bandy, Oak Ridge Boys etc.
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Old May 11, 2010 | 12:20 pm
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Originally Posted by BlueHorseShoe2000
Details of the fall schedule should start emerging in the next couple of weeks and I'm interested to see what happens in MKE. It's been somewhat surprising to see continued pull-backs in leisure markets like LAX and LAS.
Yeah, I'm curious to see if FL's MKE-SEA is kept through the winter again. MKE-LAX should stay...I wonder if it'll be 1x or 2x daily.

I would be ecstatic if either Midwest or AirTran would fly a single MKE-SAN through the winter (maybe as a redeye?), but that's probably just wishful thinking on my part.
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