BR Hints at 787 Order Change
Aug 13, 2020, 10:45 am
#1
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BR Hints at 787 Order Change
Q2 Results:
NT 614 million loss (EPS -0.13)
Included in their Q2 results were a little snippet about ongoing negotiations with Boeing.
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/...139722.article
NT 614 million loss (EPS -0.13)
- -93.6% in Pax Revenue
- +137% in Cargo
- 6.2 million USD Operating Profit
Included in their Q2 results were a little snippet about ongoing negotiations with Boeing.
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/...139722.article
Aug 13, 2020, 7:50 pm
#2
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From article:
EVA Air has entered negotiations with Boeing about its remaining 787-10 orders, hinting at a possible deferral or cancellation of some aircraft.
...
Cirium fleets data indicate the carrier has 15 787-10s on order, with a further six on option. It began operating the 787-10 in 2019, and has five examples in the fleet now.
...
Cirium fleets data indicate the carrier has 15 787-10s on order, with a further six on option. It began operating the 787-10 in 2019, and has five examples in the fleet now.
Aug 29, 2020, 5:55 am
#4
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Aug 31, 2020, 11:54 am
#5
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EVA will convert the remaining 787-10, 7 of them, into 3 77F and 4 787-9.
It will help a bit with their enormous fleet of passengers but I’m not sure if EVA even needs that many planes.
Plus, will these 4 787-9 have PE?
It will help a bit with their enormous fleet of passengers but I’m not sure if EVA even needs that many planes.
Plus, will these 4 787-9 have PE?
Aug 31, 2020, 12:37 pm
#6
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They have 15 remaining on order. Are they planning to cancel 8?
Aug 31, 2020, 2:15 pm
#7
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Boeing probably won't agree to 8x cancellation but BR probably will get to defer them by 3+ years. The only way I think Boeing will agree to net frame reduction is if BR converts some order to 779 - e.g. trade the last 5x 781 order plus un-exercised options to a 3x firm 779 order plus options.
I think BR should convert any delivery they cannot defer indefinitely (or at least 3+ year) to 789 and take them with long haul cabin config (i.e. with PE). That way they can slim down their capacity as the next batch of leased 77W leave the fleet.
Longer term (~5 years), they may find the 781 useful again when another batch of 9-abreast 77W will leave the fleet leaving only 10-abreast 77W in the fleet (which in theory could be replaced by 779 further down the road). So by 2026 or 27, BR's widebody utilization will look roughly like this:
I think BR should convert any delivery they cannot defer indefinitely (or at least 3+ year) to 789 and take them with long haul cabin config (i.e. with PE). That way they can slim down their capacity as the next batch of leased 77W leave the fleet.
Longer term (~5 years), they may find the 781 useful again when another batch of 9-abreast 77W will leave the fleet leaving only 10-abreast 77W in the fleet (which in theory could be replaced by 779 further down the road). So by 2026 or 27, BR's widebody utilization will look roughly like this:
- 789 no PE - Australia (assuming they haven't been re-configured to have PE cabin by that time)
- 789 with PE - North America secondary (e.g. ORD/SEA/IAH/YVR/YYC) and Europe non-stop
- 781 - Australia, Asia trunk routes (e.g. NRT, SIN, HKG), Europe via BKK
- 77W - North America primary gateway with big cargo ops (e.g. LAX/SFO/JFK)
Aug 31, 2020, 9:47 pm
#8
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As of now no cancellations, so the rest will remain as 787-10, but likely deferred.
EVA should be looking at a smaller fleet or downsize the capacities because the travelling world isn't going to come back to where it is before. I don't think 779 is going to be the option in the future with direct flight being the most preferred option due to chances of catching virus. Capacities will need to be reduced one way or the other and they have too many 77W and 781 on hand.
I think BR should convert any delivery they cannot defer indefinitely (or at least 3+ year) to 789 and take them with long haul cabin config (i.e. with PE). That way they can slim down their capacity as the next batch of leased 77W leave the fleet.
Longer term (~5 years), they may find the 781 useful again when another batch of 9-abreast 77W will leave the fleet leaving only 10-abreast 77W in the fleet (which in theory could be replaced by 779 further down the road). So by 2026 or 27, BR's widebody utilization will look roughly like this:
Longer term (~5 years), they may find the 781 useful again when another batch of 9-abreast 77W will leave the fleet leaving only 10-abreast 77W in the fleet (which in theory could be replaced by 779 further down the road). So by 2026 or 27, BR's widebody utilization will look roughly like this:
- 789 no PE - Australia (assuming they haven't been re-configured to have PE cabin by that time)
- 789 with PE - North America secondary (e.g. ORD/SEA/IAH/YVR/YYC) and Europe non-stop
- 781 - Australia, Asia trunk routes (e.g. NRT, SIN, HKG), Europe via BKK
- 77W - North America primary gateway with big cargo ops (e.g. LAX/SFO/JFK)
Sep 1, 2020, 7:32 pm
#9
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As of now no cancellations, so the rest will remain as 787-10, but likely deferred.
EVA should be looking at a smaller fleet or downsize the capacities because the travelling world isn't going to come back to where it is before. I don't think 779 is going to be the option in the future with direct flight being the most preferred option due to chances of catching virus. Capacities will need to be reduced one way or the other and they have too many 77W and 781 on hand.
EVA should be looking at a smaller fleet or downsize the capacities because the travelling world isn't going to come back to where it is before. I don't think 779 is going to be the option in the future with direct flight being the most preferred option due to chances of catching virus. Capacities will need to be reduced one way or the other and they have too many 77W and 781 on hand.
Sep 2, 2020, 10:45 am
#10
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I don't think UA will have any trouble getting all the 781 from Boeing on time when it want them. There is no need to make a deal with BR. Everyone is deferring delivery so there are plenty of production slots available for anyone that wants to take delivery on time or ahead of time.
BR will probably reduce capacity by returning the leased 77W when the lease expire. But they will probably continue to operate a sizable fleet of 77W because the cargo lift capacity. BR has big cargo operation at LAX for example and even with scheduled 10x weekly 77F they still need daily 3x 77W (pre-Covid schedule) to take all the pallet cargo. When PAX air traffic returns to semi-normal, I don't see BR reducing LAX to 789. They may do mixed ops with 77W and 789 to the same destination but key cargo stations like LAX will probably always get some 77W for the foreseeable future.
BR will probably reduce capacity by returning the leased 77W when the lease expire. But they will probably continue to operate a sizable fleet of 77W because the cargo lift capacity. BR has big cargo operation at LAX for example and even with scheduled 10x weekly 77F they still need daily 3x 77W (pre-Covid schedule) to take all the pallet cargo. When PAX air traffic returns to semi-normal, I don't see BR reducing LAX to 789. They may do mixed ops with 77W and 789 to the same destination but key cargo stations like LAX will probably always get some 77W for the foreseeable future.
Sep 2, 2020, 12:07 pm
#11
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I don't think UA will have any trouble getting all the 781 from Boeing on time when it want them. There is no need to make a deal with BR. Everyone is deferring delivery so there are plenty of production slots available for anyone that wants to take delivery on time or ahead of time.
BR will probably reduce capacity by returning the leased 77W when the lease expire. But they will probably continue to operate a sizable fleet of 77W because the cargo lift capacity. BR has big cargo operation at LAX for example and even with scheduled 10x weekly 77F they still need daily 3x 77W (pre-Covid schedule) to take all the pallet cargo. When PAX air traffic returns to semi-normal, I don't see BR reducing LAX to 789. They may do mixed ops with 77W and 789 to the same destination but key cargo stations like LAX will probably always get some 77W for the foreseeable future.
BR will probably reduce capacity by returning the leased 77W when the lease expire. But they will probably continue to operate a sizable fleet of 77W because the cargo lift capacity. BR has big cargo operation at LAX for example and even with scheduled 10x weekly 77F they still need daily 3x 77W (pre-Covid schedule) to take all the pallet cargo. When PAX air traffic returns to semi-normal, I don't see BR reducing LAX to 789. They may do mixed ops with 77W and 789 to the same destination but key cargo stations like LAX will probably always get some 77W for the foreseeable future.
I just think EVA's current fleet is not a very good combination. The 789 and 781 are not good replacement for 77W cause there are no PE in 789 and not enough range for 781. 781 is suppose to replace the 332/333 but isn't doing exactly a good job. 789 had a very tiny fleet (though it's getting 4 more) and was planned for TSA originating flights. Now with 8 in hand they may be able to put them permanently in places such as AMS, BNE, ORD, YVR that don't have very high PE demand. However, for the other destinations the PE is in demand, they can't return all those leased 77Ws yet.