Predicting OpUps
Jul 15, 2009 | 11:27 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Programs: pants
Posts: 433
Predicting OpUps
Ok, yes its true that predicting OpUps is like trying to predict the outcome of tomorrow nights game.
Take a look at EK 418 & EK 372, whats the probability of getting an OpUp from J->F or Y->J on those.
Yes accurately predicting OpUps would be impossible without knowing the exact number of Golds, Silvers & Blues on the plane and their Tier Status, to determine the pecking order. Information thats not available to the public.
How do you try to predict Opups?
Take a look at EK 418 & EK 372, whats the probability of getting an OpUp from J->F or Y->J on those.
Yes accurately predicting OpUps would be impossible without knowing the exact number of Golds, Silvers & Blues on the plane and their Tier Status, to determine the pecking order. Information thats not available to the public.
How do you try to predict Opups?
Last edited by roadrunner21; Jul 15, 2009 at 11:45 am
Jul 15, 2009 | 8:37 pm
#2
Join Date: Mar 2009
Programs: UA MP, Honors Gold
Posts: 45
I got op-upped on the DXB-COK leg a few days ago. I saw the gate area was full and since I didn't see the need jam myself in there, I waited outisde until boarding was about to be called. Lo and behold, they upgraded me because the flight was full. I think I will try this strategy again (esp if I don't mind being bumped from the flight).
On a related note, that was my first non-economy flight and even though it was an old 777-200, oh my god, it was so nice. I have seen the promised land and am dreading the trip back to the US in economy even more than usual. Ignorance definitely is bliss.
On a related note, that was my first non-economy flight and even though it was an old 777-200, oh my god, it was so nice. I have seen the promised land and am dreading the trip back to the US in economy even more than usual. Ignorance definitely is bliss.
Jul 15, 2009 | 11:36 pm
#3
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Birmingham, UK.
Programs: SkyWards Ex Silver & BA
Posts: 295
I have done very well on my DXB-BKK & BKK-DXB over the last 2 years but before I went 4 years without a single OP-UG, they will not upgrade unless the flight is full in the lower class, (I think they will also upgrade Y pax so they can accommodate stand-by's).
Another factor to consider is that they have increased capacity with the A380 on the 372/3 route so possibly fewer UG's for a while.
Who gets a a UG is a mystery to me, obviously Gold then Silver but there is more to it because there must be loads of Gold & Silver flying that sector but I seem to do very well.
Another factor to consider is that they have increased capacity with the A380 on the 372/3 route so possibly fewer UG's for a while.
Who gets a a UG is a mystery to me, obviously Gold then Silver but there is more to it because there must be loads of Gold & Silver flying that sector but I seem to do very well.
Jul 15, 2009 | 11:47 pm
#4
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NY Metro
Programs: UA Silver, BA Silver, Hyatt Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 408
Ok, yes its true that predicting OpUps is like trying to predict the outcome of tomorrow nights game.
Take a look at EK 418 & EK 372, whats the probability of getting an OpUp from J->F or Y->J on those.
Yes accurately predicting OpUps would be impossible without knowing the exact number of Golds, Silvers & Blues on the plane and their Tier Status, to determine the pecking order. Information thats not available to the public.
How do you try to predict Opups?
Take a look at EK 418 & EK 372, whats the probability of getting an OpUp from J->F or Y->J on those.
Yes accurately predicting OpUps would be impossible without knowing the exact number of Golds, Silvers & Blues on the plane and their Tier Status, to determine the pecking order. Information thats not available to the public.
How do you try to predict Opups?
OP, are you going to BKK today? i'm going out on 384 tonite.
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:24 am
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Programs: pants
Posts: 433
Its for 7/17 .. on EK 418 tommrow AM
Current score on seatcounter.com
Would checking in online increase the odds? Remember, they assume that there will be noshows up till departure. And someone who checks in online, has a lower probablity of being a noshow, along with the fact that am starting the journey in DXB. I have gotten opups at the gate on previous occasions despite an OLCI... never seen an OLCI upgrade though.
On another note, in the past two months have received about eight opups, I fly out every weekend to BKK or HKG. All opups were at the gate in Dubai, barring one, which was on teh plane HKG>BKK>DXB ... was told to get my ... to F after teh plane landed in BKK
Current score on seatcounter.com
Would checking in online increase the odds? Remember, they assume that there will be noshows up till departure. And someone who checks in online, has a lower probablity of being a noshow, along with the fact that am starting the journey in DXB. I have gotten opups at the gate on previous occasions despite an OLCI... never seen an OLCI upgrade though.
On another note, in the past two months have received about eight opups, I fly out every weekend to BKK or HKG. All opups were at the gate in Dubai, barring one, which was on teh plane HKG>BKK>DXB ... was told to get my ... to F after teh plane landed in BKK
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:33 am
#6
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NY Metro
Programs: UA Silver, BA Silver, Hyatt Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 408
my flight looks full on everything, including J. i'll see what happens and report back my experience.
so you fly out to bkk or hkg every weekend??? wowsers, do you have family there or business that warrants such frequent travel? flying in Y, you'd be spending a minimum of 3000AED (around 3600 for HKG) x 4 weekends/mo. that's a buttload of money!
so you fly out to bkk or hkg every weekend??? wowsers, do you have family there or business that warrants such frequent travel? flying in Y, you'd be spending a minimum of 3000AED (around 3600 for HKG) x 4 weekends/mo. that's a buttload of money!
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:37 am
#7
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Programs: pants
Posts: 433
Its paid for by work and depending on availibility its 90% J other wise end up slumming it out in Y. Last weekend flew out Y because J was full on your flight, came back J. The company travel policy states that F is above my paygrade, so I pray for J availibility and a full house in Y.... 
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:41 am
#8
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NY Metro
Programs: UA Silver, BA Silver, Hyatt Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 408
Its paid for by work and depending on availibility its 90% J other wise end up slumming it out in Y. Last weekend flew out Y because J was full on your flight, came back J. The company travel policy states that F is above my paygrade, so I pray for J availibility and a full house in Y....
if i were given the choice of living there or here... oh boy, it's a no-brainer for me.
next time i make the trip out there, maybe we can have a few drinks in T3.
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:54 am
#9
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Programs: pants
Posts: 433
Just checked in online... no opup. Keeping the faith! Maybe at the gate!
Would give an arm, a leg and first born to be based out of HKG... but meh... its a recession. They fired most of the team in BKK , SIN and HKG and send us poor people from DXB there every weekend. Not complaining, as we still have a job while the others don't.
Thank You Recession!
Would give an arm, a leg and first born to be based out of HKG... but meh... its a recession. They fired most of the team in BKK , SIN and HKG and send us poor people from DXB there every weekend. Not complaining, as we still have a job while the others don't.
Thank You Recession!
Jul 16, 2009 | 1:07 am
#10
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NY Metro
Programs: UA Silver, BA Silver, Hyatt Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 408
Just checked in online... no opup. Keeping the faith! Maybe at the gate!
Would give an arm, a leg and first born to be based out of HKG... but meh... its a recession. They fired most of the team in BKK , SIN and HKG and send us poor people from DXB there every weekend. Not complaining, as we still have a job while the others don't.
Thank You Recession!
Would give an arm, a leg and first born to be based out of HKG... but meh... its a recession. They fired most of the team in BKK , SIN and HKG and send us poor people from DXB there every weekend. Not complaining, as we still have a job while the others don't.
Thank You Recession!
woo hoo, 500 miles. thank you skwards. -_-
Jul 16, 2009 | 12:07 pm
#15
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2009
Programs: pants
Posts: 433
Thanks... !
Although even the discounted fare adds up to AED 9235 for J both ways
See if you can change to EK418, in case you are in Y. Looks like OpUp Hour... and if you are J a forced relocation to F against your will looks guaranteed too
As of 1730 (+0400 GMT) EK confirmed that there are 11 wait listed pax in Y.
WOWOWOW As of 2223 EK 418 is -63! EK 384 is -87
Thats some overbooking.
dearbee hope you are heading to the airport early... the EK lady on the phone recommended that I show up bright and early and camp in the lounge.
Although even the discounted fare adds up to AED 9235 for J both ways
See if you can change to EK418, in case you are in Y. Looks like OpUp Hour... and if you are J a forced relocation to F against your will looks guaranteed too
As of 1730 (+0400 GMT) EK confirmed that there are 11 wait listed pax in Y.
WOWOWOW As of 2223 EK 418 is -63! EK 384 is -87
Thats some overbooking.
dearbee hope you are heading to the airport early... the EK lady on the phone recommended that I show up bright and early and camp in the lounge.
Last edited by roadrunner21; Jul 16, 2009 at 12:25 pm