Hey guys,

I've seen a few of you post about likelihood of an op upgrade based on how booked / overbooked a plane is. I was wondering how you can tell whether a plan is in fact overbooked?

I have a trip coming up and want to see whether it is worth it to book Flex Plus hoping for an upgrade.

Thanks in advance guys!

Your best bet is to use a service like ExpertFlyer or KVS that shows availability in the different fare classes. When Y is showing 1 or 0 that's usually an indication that Economy is overbooked.

PS. Do you have any status on EK? The probability of an op-up increases as you move up the tiers.

Since around september or so last year, the op-up list seems to be ranked on fare classes, i.e. Flex+ , then Flex, then Saver. Apart from IO, which trumps everything (or so I have been told). I would guess that if there are multiple Flex+ ticket holders, status will come into it next.
Anecdotally: the mrs and I got a J -> F upgrade on Flex+ tickets as Blue members (after that flight we were actually Silver, but I'm sure that does not count).

It's as of 14 August last year, and it is fare type, within which status, and within which fare bucket

i.e. Flex Plus > Flex, Gold > Silver within Flex Plus, and Y > R within Golds in Flex Plus

I wouldn't buy a Flex+ just to get an op-up as you never know if there will be op-ups or how many are ahead of you. Even EK staff only see oversell status 72 hours before departure and even when a flight is oversold at T-24 it may go out without op-ups (had this happen to me a few weeks ago)

Only general staff - some staff can see oversell status at any time

Well yeah, obviously Revenue Management would have a hard time running an airline without being able to see actual load

Totally agree.
We did not buy the Flex+ with ug in mind at all, we had a family emergency and had to make a last minute change to the inbound flight and Flex+ was all that was available. When the gate agent tore up the old BP's and gave me new ones, I did not even realise that it was an ug, I thought that we had been reassigned seats again (long story). On the way down the airbridge, I looked at the BP's to see where we were now I noticed 1E/F and then said to the mrs "You know what just happened? We are in F",
As I said at the time, the ug helped to cope with the stress a bit easier.
The effect of course is that I am now frantically looking for miles ug opportunities.....

Same happened to my parents long ago. They once got an opup from KLM (CPT/AMS). Never flew Y again, best investment KL ever made...