routes with the highest and lowest load factor
Feb 23, 2012 | 10:40 pm
#16
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Denver, CO
Programs: UA GS-2MM, QF LTG, EK Gold, Marriott Amb, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 4,006
Availability ex MEL to SIN for the entire month of April is slammed. Funny thing is that there are plenty of seats on QF and SQ. I'm trying to find revenue seats for my sister and her 2 kids and for the first time I can remember - EK is significantly more expensive than Qantas or Singapore.
Feb 24, 2012 | 4:18 pm
#17
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: hubs: AMS, PEK | cities on focus: NKG, PVG
Programs: British Airways Executive Club Bronze | DELTA Skymiles | EK Skywards | Lufthansa Miles&More
Posts: 143
The following is the most commomn situation on different routes, but bare in mind, for various reasons, you can encounter an empty flights on busy routes and vice-versa... for example: on 1st of Jan DXB-DME goes with no more than 15 pax, but the return leg on the same date is always overbooked; DXB-CAN-DXB flights are overbooked and go 777-300 2 class with 400 pax in economy, when there is a fair; you have to book at least 6 months in advance DXB-MLE flight in First or Business if you want to fly 18-22 DEC etc...
ALWAYS FULL:
JFK 201, SFO and LAX in Y
JNB, DUR, LOS, LAD, MRU
LHR (ex-029), MAN, BHX, GLA, MAD, AMS, HAM, FCO, IST
JED, IKA, LHE, PEW, ISB, INDIA in Y, BKK, HKG, MNL in Y, DAC, ICN, SYD (ex-414), MEL, BNE, AKL
ALMOST ALWAYS FULL
YYZ, GRU
CPT, NBO, CAI, BEY, DAM, AMM
CDG, FRA, MUC, DUS, VIE, ZRH, MXP, VCE, DME
KIX, NRT, PVG, CGK, PEK, CMB, KUL, PER
NEVER FULL
DKR, KRT, SAH, MCT
NCL, NCE (but fare is double comapring to other EU destinations)
ALWAYS (or almost always) FULL FIRST CLASS
LHR 001, GVA, ZRH, BKK 384, NRT, ICN, SYD 412, JED, JFK 201, LOS
*the list is not complete
ALWAYS FULL:
JFK 201, SFO and LAX in Y
JNB, DUR, LOS, LAD, MRU
LHR (ex-029), MAN, BHX, GLA, MAD, AMS, HAM, FCO, IST
JED, IKA, LHE, PEW, ISB, INDIA in Y, BKK, HKG, MNL in Y, DAC, ICN, SYD (ex-414), MEL, BNE, AKL
ALMOST ALWAYS FULL
YYZ, GRU
CPT, NBO, CAI, BEY, DAM, AMM
CDG, FRA, MUC, DUS, VIE, ZRH, MXP, VCE, DME
KIX, NRT, PVG, CGK, PEK, CMB, KUL, PER
NEVER FULL
DKR, KRT, SAH, MCT
NCL, NCE (but fare is double comapring to other EU destinations)
ALWAYS (or almost always) FULL FIRST CLASS
LHR 001, GVA, ZRH, BKK 384, NRT, ICN, SYD 412, JED, JFK 201, LOS
*the list is not complete
Feb 25, 2012 | 10:17 am
#19
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 853
Seattle - First flight is 3/4 full, but after that hardly 50% full for the first few days. Definitely shows why the 777-200LR was replaced on the route for now anyhow. But I think this will change, I think by December we'll see a need to increase it to a 777-300ER for sure.
SYD market definitely strong as most flights are full year round. PER should have had an upgrade to a 777-300ER a long time ago, its had its flights full for a long time! MEL very strong as well, no need to worry there - full loads pretty much year round as well. BNE, a bit weaker perhaps not the need for a 380 quite yet... but still full in peak times! The good thing about Australia though is the strong demand of premium traffic, as most J and F seats to Australia are full year round as well.
Would almost agree with you there.. but I think YYZ definitely needs to be added to that list! Also HKG I could say 384/332 but definitely not 388. Just looking at 388 today and tomorrow - today not even 50%... tomorrow not much better.
Feb 25, 2012 | 11:12 am
#20
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Aberdeen
Programs: BA Exec Silver, Hilton Honors Gold, Porter
Posts: 1,203
A flight which almost always go empty is EK 902 AMM-DXB. Load never seems to be more than 30%. I have done it with only 80 pax total on a 777-300, and about 50 pax on a 330 (with me alone in F). As outbound EK 901 DXB-AMM is always full, sometimes overbooked.
Interesting about MCT almost never being full. Doing a AMM-DXB-MCT and then MCT-DXB-BEY routing in April in F. Is there a chance that I shall be solo again DXB-MCT?
Interesting about MCT almost never being full. Doing a AMM-DXB-MCT and then MCT-DXB-BEY routing in April in F. Is there a chance that I shall be solo again DXB-MCT?
Feb 25, 2012 | 3:11 pm
#23
Join Date: Sep 2010
Programs: AZ FA+, A3 G, AB G | IHG RA, HGP D, FPC P, Accor P, BW D, HH D, Eleva, GHA P, 1862 Voyager
Posts: 1,852
How about flights from KUL - MEL?
Have a flight in a week and KUL - MEL is wide open, but SIN - MEL is zeroed out completely for economy cabin.
Have a flight in a week and KUL - MEL is wide open, but SIN - MEL is zeroed out completely for economy cabin.
Feb 26, 2012 | 5:24 am
#24
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Germany
Posts: 671
month HAM (daily B77W) DUS (daily B773 + daily A332)
Jan: 82% 76%
Feb: 92% 91%
Mar: 85% 80%
Apr: 84% 86%
May: 78% 69%
Jun: 70% 60%
Jul: 86% 78%
Aug: 76% 79%
Sep: 59% 72% (2nd daily to HAM launched with B772)
Oct: 77% 82%
Nov: 69% 80%
2nd daily to DUS upgraded from A332 to A343 in Dec 2011 and further to B77W from 1st June 2012.
2nd daily to HAM upgraded from B772 to B77W from Jan 2012
JFK
http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-t...EC2011_JFK.PDF
total passengers in 2011: 494,580
daily A380 (489 seats) + daily B77W (360 seats) > 849 daily seats (one-way)
677.5 per day (one-way) > LF 79,8%
Last edited by EK77W; Feb 26, 2012 at 5:31 am
Feb 26, 2012 | 7:22 am
#25
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: West Coast, USA
Programs: Skywards Platinum
Posts: 3,747
Just FYI, I flew Y from SFO -> DXB and DXB -> SFO on the 17th and 24th. Both times KVS showed Y0 up until nearly the last minute, but Y ended up having enough empty seats that there were no op-ups given. I was hoping for it being completely full. It was definitely at least 95% full, though.
Feb 26, 2012 | 10:04 am
#26
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Pennsylvania
Programs: AA Platinum Pro, AC *S, Marriott Gold Elite, Hyatt Explorist
Posts: 9,791
This was probably an anomaly but J on EK201 a few days ago was just about half full. At first I thought the flight was completely empty but I realized everyone was at the bar... 
The following is the most commomn situation on different routes, but bare in mind, for various reasons, you can encounter an empty flights on busy routes and vice-versa... for example: on 1st of Jan DXB-DME goes with no more than 15 pax, but the return leg on the same date is always overbooked; DXB-CAN-DXB flights are overbooked and go 777-300 2 class with 400 pax in economy, when there is a fair; you have to book at least 6 months in advance DXB-MLE flight in First or Business if you want to fly 18-22 DEC etc...
ALWAYS FULL:
JFK 201, SFO and LAX in Y
JNB, DUR, LOS, LAD, MRU
LHR (ex-029), MAN, BHX, GLA, MAD, AMS, HAM, FCO, IST
JED, IKA, LHE, PEW, ISB, INDIA in Y, BKK, HKG, MNL in Y, DAC, ICN, SYD (ex-414), MEL, BNE, AKL
ALMOST ALWAYS FULL
YYZ, GRU
CPT, NBO, CAI, BEY, DAM, AMM
CDG, FRA, MUC, DUS, VIE, ZRH, MXP, VCE, DME
KIX, NRT, PVG, CGK, PEK, CMB, KUL, PER
NEVER FULL
DKR, KRT, SAH, MCT
NCL, NCE (but fare is double comapring to other EU destinations)
ALWAYS (or almost always) FULL FIRST CLASS
LHR 001, GVA, ZRH, BKK 384, NRT, ICN, SYD 412, JED, JFK 201, LOS
*the list is not complete
ALWAYS FULL:
JFK 201, SFO and LAX in Y
JNB, DUR, LOS, LAD, MRU
LHR (ex-029), MAN, BHX, GLA, MAD, AMS, HAM, FCO, IST
JED, IKA, LHE, PEW, ISB, INDIA in Y, BKK, HKG, MNL in Y, DAC, ICN, SYD (ex-414), MEL, BNE, AKL
ALMOST ALWAYS FULL
YYZ, GRU
CPT, NBO, CAI, BEY, DAM, AMM
CDG, FRA, MUC, DUS, VIE, ZRH, MXP, VCE, DME
KIX, NRT, PVG, CGK, PEK, CMB, KUL, PER
NEVER FULL
DKR, KRT, SAH, MCT
NCL, NCE (but fare is double comapring to other EU destinations)
ALWAYS (or almost always) FULL FIRST CLASS
LHR 001, GVA, ZRH, BKK 384, NRT, ICN, SYD 412, JED, JFK 201, LOS
*the list is not complete
Feb 26, 2012 | 10:17 am
#27
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Exile
Posts: 16,065
Guangzhou has been ridiculously full over the last year. My company sends about 10-12 people to China every month and while we prefer to use Guangzhou as our gateway since a lot of our work is in Guangdong, Shaanxi and Hainan, we simply cannot find seats to there anymore. I just had to send 9 people to Sanya via Beijing last week, because the Guangzhou flights simply didn't have enough seats the entire week. In my personal experience as well (5 flights last year), every single flight is absolutely packed (mainly African and middle Eastern traders) and there are sometimes 200+ Golds on the flight.
Feb 26, 2012 | 10:20 am
#28
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,797
Guangzhou has been ridiculously full over the last year. My company sends about 10-12 people to China every month and while we prefer to use Guangzhou as our gateway since a lot of our work is in Guangdong, Shaanxi and Hainan, we simply cannot find seats to there anymore. I just had to send 9 people to Sanya via Beijing last week, because the Guangzhou flights simply didn't have enough seats the entire week. In my personal experience as well (5 flights last year), every single flight is absolutely packed (mainly African and middle Eastern traders) and there are sometimes 200+ Golds on the flight.
Feb 26, 2012 | 10:29 am
#29
Join Date: Oct 2008
Programs: Star GOLD, EK SIlver
Posts: 94
Capacity - 14/76/396
Bookings 27th - 8/36/329
Bookings 29th - 6/42/328
HKG-DXB on 28th, when there are 2 flights only, insted of 3.
Both flight with A380, capacity 14/76/427
EK381 - 8/63/438
EK385 - 12/75/439
Feb 26, 2012 | 10:41 am
#30
Join Date: Oct 2008
Programs: Star GOLD, EK SIlver
Posts: 94