Why is it so unimaginable for EL AL to switch to Airbus for long haul a/c? Back during the late 1990's former EL AL CEO Joel Feldschuh actually ordered the A330 but that deal was canceled because the Israeli government stepped in and forced LY to order the 777 amid pressure from then U.S. Secretary of State Albright. Back then LY was government owned and controlled. Today, EL AL is controlled by private parties who can and should rationalize the fleet around the aircraft models that suit their needs best, regardless where the manufacturer is from. Besides, given that parts for both Boeing and Airbus a/c are sourced from all over the world, can anyone truly say Boeing's are American made and Airbus are European made?

A compromise would be to get Airbus with US engines (they offer 2 options).
I agree that the most rational replacement for the 744s would be the A380. It is far cheaper to run, even when in a configuration which does not add that many seats over the 744. The 748 is, in my opinion, a stop gap which will not sell well. Yes, it has slightly upgraded technology over the 744, but it is not a completely new aircraft, and the feedback from airlines flying the A380 is exceedingly good. For a small airline it may be possible to get enough aircraft from 'cancellation slots' without having to wait until 2016 or so for the wait list to shrink.

You are absolutely correct. I believe EL AL would benefit immensely from having the A380. They could easily fill it on their EWR, JFK, LHR, and some far east routes.

Currently, EL AL alternates daily between a 744 and 772 to EWR. Though they can easy sell added capacity on that route, they can't seem to get extra slots there. The same situation also persists at LHR. A single A380 flight per day to EWR would (depending on its seating configuration) exceed the capacity of United's twice daily 772 service with the added benefit of signficantly lower operating costs which would generate substantially higher yields. Additionally, the buzz generated by EL AL being the only carrier to fly the A380 between the US and Israel could potentially offset their lack of alliance membership. Flying the A380 daily to EWR and JFK would also free up 772's to start up routes such as Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco, which the airline has wanted to do for a while now but could not because of Israel's former Category 2 status and lack of free 772 a/c in the fleet.

All in all, the A380 would be a complete game changer for EL AL and would serve to potentially revitalize the airline.

I am also confident Airbus would do whatever it had to in order to deliver their flagship A380 a/c to EL AL for bragging rights alone. In order for such a deal to take place, EL AL would need to have a CEO that understands the commercial airline industry and could actually speak the English language properly enough to be taken seriously by Airbus executives. With Shkedy at the helm, EL AL will never be able to negotiate this sort of deal for themselves.

What about the Shabbat? Why nobody speaks of the Shabbat?
 

Well, sorry to bring this up, but as long as LY's planes are grounded effectively 20% of the time, the purchase cost actually becomes significant with respect to the operational costs.

While reducing operational costs is a good idea, one needs to take into consideration the fact that the aircrafts are grounded (and A380 is not something LY can easily use in any of its schemes to bypass the shabbat).

So my estimate is that the tipping point for LY is different than for most airlines.

Also - EWR-TLV is a bad route. The total flight time back and forth is about 23 hours, which means you cannot utilize the aircraft 24/7 a-la LH does with FRA-JNB (or FRA-JFK).

I have to disagree with you for many reasons:
1- AFAIK, there is no airline in the world which uses a combo of A330/A380 with no "intermediary" a/c.
2- The A330 will soon become "obsolete"
3- LY 777s are rather young
4- I think the A380 would be great but too "big" for LY IMHO for the time being. Maybe the 77W or even the 748 should be a good 744 replacement

LY777,

I suppose we will have to agree to disagree. My response to your points are as follows:

1. Just because no airline currently uses a combo of A330/A380 for their long haul metal does not mean it would be a bad combination to use nor does it mean EL AL should not utilize it.

2. The 777 will also become obsolete soon as well. Since the A330 will be obsolete soon this means LY could get a great deal. During the late 1990's LY actually ordered the A330 over the 772 after conducting an extensive study which determined the A330 would be better suited and more efficient for EL AL's needs but that deal was canceled due to political interference. Besides, flying obsolete a/c is something EL AL likes to do (they still fly 763's and flew the 742 for pax services until 2005).

3. Actually the first 4 772's now are over 10 years old and will need heavy m/x soon if not already. If some sort of deal with Airbus can be reached where Airbus buys back the 772's and LY gets a combo of the A380 and A330 at very low prices, I think EL AL would be better off going for it.

4. Actually back during the late 1960's people said that the 742 would be "too big" for EL AL and look at how that turned out. At one point, the 742 was LY's largest fleet. The fact is that LY's New York and London routes are high density year around and they could easily fill those planes hence the A380 is not "too big" for the company. Even today, LY occasionally flies the 744 and 772 on European and short haul trips and those flights are always full and I am sure an A380 could be filled for those flights as well.

The fact that EL AL grounds its fleet for the Jewish Sabbath and other Jewish holidays has always been an issue regarding efficient aircraft utilization however it has never stopped EL AL from ordering the 742 and the 744 in multiples, both models of which were the largest commercial a/c at the time EL AL ordered them and deployed successfully on the very route (New York) which consistently nets the company its highest yields.

LY does need an airplane to fill the gap between the A330(around 210 pax in a 3 class config) and the A380 (around 520 pax).

The right combo for LY is 737/787/772/77W or 748 or even A380.
The 737/A330/A380 does not seem good to me, but it is only my opinion: the gap between the A330 and the A380 is huge for me. And I am not even sure that the A330 has the legs to fly to LAX.

LY777,

Actually, around the same time EL AL decided to go with the 737 (late 1990's) they also decided on the 777. For both instances, EL AL wanted to go with competing Airbus models but could not because the company was government owned and the US government demanded that EL AL buy exclusively from Boeing. Hence, the right combo for LY would have been A320/A330/A380. Given that EL AL has a substantial 737 fleet with further deliveries, it would be unrealistic to get rid of the 737 at this stage as the platform for European and regional destinations.

However, EL AL has only 6 772's and with the right deal from Airbus it would make economic sense to get rid of them in favor of the A330 or even A350. Though the 772 and A330 have different advantages/disadvantages, the fact is that they are very similar to one another, so much so that there has historically (and even currently) been a lot of competition between the two models.

That doesn't answer my question concerning the LAX route: which a/c would LY use to LAX?
The 777 is more in competition with the A340 than with the A330 conerning long routes. The A332 is FAR smaller than the 772. The A333 has about the same capacity as the 772, but it has a MUCH smaller range.

Well, LAX is just one route in the EL AL network and it isn't even a daily one. I don't think EL AL, or any airline for that matter, should pick a fleet type based on a single route that isn't even a daily one like LAX is for EL AL.

With that said, EL AL could fly the A380 to LAX if capacity requires them to do so, or fly to LAX via YYZ as they have done in the past, or even turn over LAX to code share partner AA from NY or ORD (if they ever decide to fly to ORD). There are a variety of ways LY can handle LAX but to insist EL AL should retain the 772 fleet specifically for one somewhat insignificant route which could be easily accommodated via alternative channels does not make good business sense.

I just don't see the A380 making sense for LY. The 748 has gotten good feedback from LH and I think it would be a good plane.
For numbers, between the 748, 773, 772, and 787s, all numbers of large-haul are covered. Going with the A380 goes from all-Boeing to Boeing plus just one Airbus plane, which makes things more difficult. It'd be different if they were to be more balanced.

Regardless, I don't see why they can't upgrade F/C, IFE, etc. only on the A380. No matter what plan they get, they would need to install F and C, and I would hope it would be a good product.

Josh,

As mentioned by me earlier, EL AL could easily fill an A380 on high density routes to JFK and EWR and even to BKK. The NY routes are EL AL's "bread and butter" routes and having the largest and most luxurious aircraft on that route would give EL AL the clear advantage from a passenger standpoint as well as an operational/economical standpoint since the A380 boast significantly lower seat/mile costs than the 744 and 748. I don't see how or why it would be "more difficult" going from an all Boeing fleet to one that is mixed. Once EL AL gets rid of the 744's they will have to introduce a new fleet type (assuming they don't make the 777's their exclusive long haul a/c) which requires crew and maintenance training regardless whether the plane is the 748 or A380. Many airlines, including Lufthansa which you mentioned, have both Boeing and Airbus models and operate them with relative ease.

As far as installing new "F" and "C" seats I agree. They really need to update their product. I personally think EL AL should dump "F" and opt for a "C" class along the lines of CO's BusinessFirst product. Given that a substantial portion of EL AL's "C" class pax get to sit in Business Class as a result of upgrading and bidding and the same situation persists in "F" class, all points of the fact that LY should focus on just 2 classes of service; C and Y, both of which should have upgraded seating and advanced IFE systems.

LH has other Airbus planes as well (A32/3/40)

I just don't see the move to a single Airbus fleet on top of the entirely Boeing fleet. In addition, the benefit they have at JFK is the frequency. Going to A380 reduces frequency. At EWR, they alternate between 772 and 744, but I highly doubt they would fill an A380 there, or LAX (772) for that matter.

Josh,

The frequency benefit at JFK that you mention is non existent. During the winter EL AL often has only a single flight per day to/from JFK and at most 2 per day. During the summer they never have more than 4 per day with the late morning and early afternoon flights consistently going out with considerable amount of empty seats. When flying to TLV, most people prefer evening departures and that is proven by both the passenger loads and the fact that all of LY's competitors from the USA to Israel schedule their flights to leave in the evening (with the exception of one of UA's double daily flights which leaves around 450 PM). Additionally, the benefit of frequency is often negated when traveling across numerous time zone on long haul flights such as NY to TLV. Lastly, instituting frequency, as oppose to less flights on larger aircraft, increases operational costs exponentially and hence many long haul non US based airlines are opting for less flights on larger aircraft than more flights on smaller ones in order to cut operational expenses and maximize yields. Given that EL AL is a private, for profit enterprise, anything that would cut expenses and maximize yields should be welcome, particularly in light of their current dire financial situation.

Regarding your assertion that EL AL could not fill an A380 to EWR is false. EL AL actually wanted to instill a second daily flight to EWR because their loads were so high but could not due to a lack of available aircraft, Israel's category 2 status, and slots. As far as LAX is concerned, LY could easily fill a 744 on that route many days, so having the route alternate between a 772 and A380 is not such a far fetched idea.