Currently in Asia and just woke to the DL emails advising of the situation and waiver. My husband is flying back to the states today, with a domestic connection to ANC, and I’m the same on the 9th. Overall not too concerned just yet as it looks like international isn’t slated to be impacted at this time, and with DL having a much smaller slice of ANC I’m doubting any of those will be on the chopping block.
I do worry the most in the short term of DL’s systems (and other airlines as well) of being overrun by folks attempting to alter plans. My experience with past weather waivers on DL is that self-service options never worked and you would have to call in to get a change made without a difference in fare. Let’s hope IT improvements have been made to make this smoother. Looks like the few comments I’ve seen on here so far have been positive with regards to changes. I do think DL was a bit optimistic only offering Nov 7-9 for now as waiver dates. Though hopefully this will force a miracle in congress and get things moving sooner.
I also did think it was a little “in the face” to the customer for DL to quickly point out how they aren’t responsible for other incurred costs. (Which they aren’t, but still is rubbing salt in the wound for some folks).
Airline pilot hat on for a minute:
As with any IROP situation having aircraft and crew out of place is a major concern. You’ve got a delicate balance to contend with and not to mention commuting crew that will face difficulties getting to/from work as flights get cancelled and remaining ones fill up with rebooked pax. If this drags on more than a few more weeks we are also more likely to see more ATC issues and TSA shortages, which will obviously extend the waiver, but create more issues as airlines switch into holiday schedule
mode.
Good luck to those impacted the next few days.
I do worry the most in the short term of DL’s systems (and other airlines as well) of being overrun by folks attempting to alter plans. My experience with past weather waivers on DL is that self-service options never worked and you would have to call in to get a change made without a difference in fare. Let’s hope IT improvements have been made to make this smoother. Looks like the few comments I’ve seen on here so far have been positive with regards to changes. I do think DL was a bit optimistic only offering Nov 7-9 for now as waiver dates. Though hopefully this will force a miracle in congress and get things moving sooner.
I also did think it was a little “in the face” to the customer for DL to quickly point out how they aren’t responsible for other incurred costs. (Which they aren’t, but still is rubbing salt in the wound for some folks).
Airline pilot hat on for a minute:
As with any IROP situation having aircraft and crew out of place is a major concern. You’ve got a delicate balance to contend with and not to mention commuting crew that will face difficulties getting to/from work as flights get cancelled and remaining ones fill up with rebooked pax. If this drags on more than a few more weeks we are also more likely to see more ATC issues and TSA shortages, which will obviously extend the waiver, but create more issues as airlines switch into holiday schedule
mode.
Good luck to those impacted the next few days.
Looks like DL has/is nailing their connection carriers primarily... Skywest has 5% now, or 145 flights... a lot of them DL connections out west. Endeavor DL connection taking a big hit out of ATL and NYC area.
And this is just for the initial 4% decrease... so this is going to more than double by next week so I'm sure mainline will start taking serious hits starting Mon. Get ready for the epic phone wait times...
And this is just for the initial 4% decrease... so this is going to more than double by next week so I'm sure mainline will start taking serious hits starting Mon. Get ready for the epic phone wait times...
AFAIK the FAA has been pretty hands-off in directing specific markets to cut...this is up to the carriers' discretion. This is a good exercise for the OCC to select markets that have good re-protection options, but are also crew-friendly cancellations so you don't open up additional uncovered flying.
That said, I highly doubt these GDPs all just magically disappear tomorrow, either. Boston has been bucking 3+ hour delays today, and this is pre-reduction. Sibling is 3 hours delayed on BOS-PIT on B6 right now, I checked the Delta BOS-PIT option since she has NRSA benefits, but it cancelled already. Time to hit Legal Seafood I guess.
That said, I highly doubt these GDPs all just magically disappear tomorrow, either. Boston has been bucking 3+ hour delays today, and this is pre-reduction. Sibling is 3 hours delayed on BOS-PIT on B6 right now, I checked the Delta BOS-PIT option since she has NRSA benefits, but it cancelled already. Time to hit Legal Seafood I guess.
I'm curious how the rule counts cancellations in order for an airline to achieve the 10% reduction number. Obviously airlines are more likely to cancel RJ flights or flights between a hub and a small spoke outstation. However, such flights generally only touch one airport on the list of 40, while by definition hub-to-hub or more generally 40airport-to-40airport flights hit one of the 40 in both directions, so that would use twice as much scarce ATC resources.
Similarly one could argue that a go around consumes more ATC resources that a landing. Needed go arounds won't be avoided, but an airline might proactively cancel flights that are more likely to experience a go around due to very strong winds, etc.
Similarly one could argue that a go around consumes more ATC resources that a landing. Needed go arounds won't be avoided, but an airline might proactively cancel flights that are more likely to experience a go around due to very strong winds, etc.
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Similarly one could argue that a go around consumes more ATC resources that a landing. Needed go arounds won't be avoided, but an airline might proactively cancel flights that are more likely to experience a go around due to very strong winds, etc.
Without veering too off topic... there are reasons to be suspect about the methodology being applied here to relieve ATC constraints.Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
I'm curious how the rule counts cancellations in order for an airline to achieve the 10% reduction number. Obviously airlines are more likely to cancel RJ flights or flights between a hub and a small spoke outstation. However, such flights generally only touch one airport on the list of 40, while by definition hub-to-hub or more generally 40airport-to-40airport flights hit one of the 40 in both directions, so that would use twice as much scarce ATC resources.Similarly one could argue that a go around consumes more ATC resources that a landing. Needed go arounds won't be avoided, but an airline might proactively cancel flights that are more likely to experience a go around due to very strong winds, etc.
It is true that yes, less air traffic overall is going to keep more slack in the system for when staffing constraints happen. But staffing constraints are going to occur either at specific airports or covering specific ARTCC (e.g. the infamous ZJX which has had issues for a long time, even before the shutdown). So this entire exercise will not actually stop day-of disruptions from occurring.
Further - and admittedly I haven't looked at detail of the time profile of the cancelled flights - airlines, if given full discretion - will prioritize cutting flights during lower yield hours impacted by the cuts (very early morning, late morning, early afternoon) while keeping the high yield times - mid-morning and late afternoon/early evening. So, as you alluded to, airlines will prioritize cuts to RJs where only one "high volume airport" is impacted instead of two and likely still keep peak throughput the same in the mid-morning and late afternoon/early evening departure slots.
In other words - it is unclear to me that, other than potentially more slack to allow for recovery after a staffing shortage, that this 10% across the board cut - as implemented - will actually alleviate the underlying problem.
It is possible that the DOT/FAA guidance was more specific to the airlines. But at least with what has been publicly disclosed, this entire thing has me scratching my head. ATC needs relief, and perhaps this is one way to do it, but it doesn't seem like it will actually solve the problem it is supposedly trying to get ahead of. I'll leave it to the reader to determine why they may be choosing to go down this path despite not addressing the core constraints.
I'll look through the Delta and other airline cancellations tomorrow in more detail to see if we can deduce more specific guidance that may not be publicly disclosed in terms of how airlines may have been instructed to manage the cancellations... if we understand the "rules", people may be able to better predict the risk of cancellation of their flight (if there are no rules, high demand flight times will be safe.. if there are additional unpublished rules, that may not be the case).
From the perspective of the FAA directive that each airline has to cut their schedule x%, are commuter airlines (e.g., SkyWest, Endeavor Air) treated as separate entities, or as part of their mainline partners? If Delta and all its commuter partners are one big "collective Delta" then it would make perfect sense to concentrate all the cancellations among the "connection flights" as fewer passengers would be affected. And it is my understanding that in terms of ATC resources, there is no difference between guiding a 50-seat commuter plane and guiding a widebody mainline jet.
Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
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Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
DEN offered to use airport revenue to pay air traffic controllers and then get reimbursed afterwards once the shutdown ends. The FAA hasn't yet responded. Originally Posted by andrewk829
From the perspective of the FAA directive that each airline has to cut their schedule x%, are commuter airlines (e.g., SkyWest, Endeavor Air) treated as separate entities, or as part of their mainline partners? If Delta and all its commuter partners are one big "collective Delta" then it would make perfect sense to concentrate all the cancellations among the "connection flights" as fewer passengers would be affected. And it is my understanding that in terms of ATC resources, there is no difference between guiding a 50-seat commuter plane and guiding a widebody mainline jet.Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
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Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
Given that Skywest, Republic, Endeavor, and Envoy all have more cancellations than legacy mainline carriers tomorrow, it seems pretty clear they are not being treated as separate from the mainlines.Originally Posted by andrewk829
From the perspective of the FAA directive that each airline has to cut their schedule x%, are commuter airlines (e.g., SkyWest, Endeavor Air) treated as separate entities, or as part of their mainline partners? If Delta and all its commuter partners are one big "collective Delta" then it would make perfect sense to concentrate all the cancellations among the "connection flights" as fewer passengers would be affected. And it is my understanding that in terms of ATC resources, there is no difference between guiding a 50-seat commuter plane and guiding a widebody mainline jet.Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.
GagaPilot "My experience with past weather waivers on DL is that self-service options never worked and you would have to call in to get a change made without a difference in fare"
Self serv I was shown a fare difference of $288 to switch even after getting the waiver email. About an eight minute hold time when I called in. Took a CDG connection to skip JFK. I suspect both my originally booked flights will go, but the possibilities of cascading delays still looms once cancellations get worked in (even with advance planning). Key is, I'm more relaxed having TATL first now.
Self serv I was shown a fare difference of $288 to switch even after getting the waiver email. About an eight minute hold time when I called in. Took a CDG connection to skip JFK. I suspect both my originally booked flights will go, but the possibilities of cascading delays still looms once cancellations get worked in (even with advance planning). Key is, I'm more relaxed having TATL first now.
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Self serv I was shown a fare difference of $288 to switch even after getting the waiver email. About an eight minute hold time when I called in. Took a CDG connection to skip JFK. I suspect both my originally booked flights will go, but the possibilities of cascading delays still looms once cancellations get worked in (even with advance planning). Key is, I'm more relaxed having TATL first now.
Definitely wise to skip JFK and take the TATL first! Good call. Originally Posted by RaflW
GagaPilot "My experience with past weather waivers on DL is that self-service options never worked and you would have to call in to get a change made without a difference in fare"Self serv I was shown a fare difference of $288 to switch even after getting the waiver email. About an eight minute hold time when I called in. Took a CDG connection to skip JFK. I suspect both my originally booked flights will go, but the possibilities of cascading delays still looms once cancellations get worked in (even with advance planning). Key is, I'm more relaxed having TATL first now.
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Looked at the cancel list and so far nothing canceled in/out of BOS for Fri, so I'd assume they aren't done chopping yet... or maybe since the real northeast constraint are the NYC airports which had a lot of short connection flights whacked it hasn't impacted BOS yet?
Am surprised to see an international flight hit ATL like the inbound from BCN... unless that was canceled for other MX reasons.
Major TStorms in BCN so probably a weather cancellation Originally Posted by rylan
This should be interesting... have a trip starting next Wed out of BOS, which is when the cutbacks should be at the 10% level.Looked at the cancel list and so far nothing canceled in/out of BOS for Fri, so I'd assume they aren't done chopping yet... or maybe since the real northeast constraint are the NYC airports which had a lot of short connection flights whacked it hasn't impacted BOS yet?
Am surprised to see an international flight hit ATL like the inbound from BCN... unless that was canceled for other MX reasons.
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I would guess this would be less than 1% of the calculation, and really it's more than likely that it does not factor in at all. first of all, they don't get credit for theoretically reducing ATC load, they are only measured on the number of flights reduced. Secondly, if the "very strong winds etc" are at the airport covered by the FAA order, then it covers all of the flights there and so it doesn't really matter which one they pick, and if those are at the other end of the flight at an airport that is not covered by the order, then whether the plane has a go-around or not makes no difference to meeting the conditions of the order.Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
Similarly one could argue that a go around consumes more ATC resources that a landing. Needed go arounds won't be avoided, but an airline might proactively cancel flights that are more likely to experience a go around due to very strong winds, etc.