From the perspective of the FAA directive that each airline has to cut their schedule x%, are commuter airlines (e.g., SkyWest, Endeavor Air) treated as separate entities, or as part of their mainline partners? If Delta and all its commuter partners are one big "collective Delta" then it would make perfect sense to concentrate all the cancellations among the "connection flights" as fewer passengers would be affected. And it is my understanding that in terms of ATC resources, there is no difference between guiding a 50-seat commuter plane and guiding a widebody mainline jet.
Also, how many hours or days in advance do we think these cancellations be announced? I'm flying a mainline flight, SEA-SAN, on Saturday. If it were going to be canceled, when would I know?
By the way, I don't understand why the airlines could not themselves fund the payroll of TSA and ATC employees, and then get reimbursed once this stupid shutdown ends. I mean, the airlines have a vested in ensuring a functional air traffic system. Surely there could be some way to make that work, even if some tricks and games were needed to get around regulations and contracts and financial logistics.