Let the guessing game continue...: https://frequentmiler.com/greg-predi...ymiles-changes. I bet DL insiders who are reading this FT forum are having some fun :-)

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...f81cd9babb.png

This is so over-simplistic and ignores many realities that maybe you don't have to deal with or can work around but many other travelers do have to deal with or cannot work around. For starters, not everyone can afford to just cancel a ticket on Airline A and go buy a walk-up fare on Airline B. They may not have the mileage balance to get a mileage ticket either. The problem becomes even more exacerbated if having to buy multiple tickets and this could also impact any travel insurance coverage that might otherwise cover other costs. Sometimes you can't cancel it or change it yourself as the system errors out or canceling it yourself may impact other segments on the same itinerary such as a return that you don't yet want to change/cancel. Also, depending on what is causing the IROPS, going to Airline B may not even be an option (weather events, etc.). Canceling at the mid-point of a journey (at a layover airport) if that's where you experience IROPS may also prove problematic, particularly if you have checked baggage.

Pretty good analysis. DL needs to keep it very simple for the average person to understand. DM requires $25,000 MQD on flights or $250,000 spend on Amex or a combination thereof (at 10:1). Easy to understand the math. Current MQM balances can be converted at 3% so my 300,000 MQM balance on 12/31/23 gets me a $9,000 MQD head start on 2024 earning. The only thing wrong with this scenario is international customers who aren’t eligible for a DL Amex will need a different system. Maybe 50% of the above.

If it was a stress test, using Expedia is a failure. My Hertz rentals all posted for MQDs but some of the hotel bookings did not and I have been getting the runaround on those. I wouldn’t bother with that again. Didn’t get my hotel status benefits (or nights credit) and didn’t get my MQDs. (I should renew Diamond anyway but I’d be making it this month or early next instead of in NOV/DEC if the MQDs had posted.)

If that’s the case I imagine many of us will look at whether UA or AA will offer status matches. I’ve been mostly happy with Delta but 18K v. 25K is a considerable difference.

Lucky you. Hub captives don’t have a choice.

As noted in graphic, they raised MQD level for DM to 20K for the current year (18K was prior year requirement). If you are thinking you'll renew DM by hitting 18K this year, you'll still be 2K short.

I’m hitting 20K this fall. The point is that 18K v. 20K is one thing; 18K v. 25K is another.

As another poster noted above, what’s an interesting question is how much Delta revenue is driven by frequent fliers from non-hubs. DCA is my most convenient airport (10 minutes away) but IAD is usable. So I really can free-agent. (And the credit card lounge game at both airports is dramatically improving.)

We will see what the changes are (the rumored sky club changes would actually be the most likely to cause me to leave Delta…if I’m going to layover somewhere (which will happen no matter who I fly)…I want a lounge); and then it’s just going to be a math calculation to determine whether it’s worth sticking with Delta or switching to United or AA or going full free agent.

They do have a choice. AA and UA and many other carriers fly to all of DL’s hubs except for no UA at JFK (but plenty of options at EWR and LGA). Hub captives who stick with the hub carrier have simply made the choice to choose (often higher priced) nonstop flights offered by the hub carrier over usually having to connect on the non-hub carrier. But they do have a choice.

Yes, well, you have to consider the source and the fact that those numbers are purely speculative. Not sure what the point of getting worried about something that could likely be completely off base (especially if they go with a Loyalty Points system which will use different metrics).

15k was prior year DL MQD requirement.

Perhaps - I've been able to avoid getting a DL Amex card thus far. (My MQMs wouldn't get me to Platinum even with the spending boosts, and up until now it's been a better decision for me to spend on a couple extra flights to get me over the current GM MQD thresholds and to spend on cards that provide a better return than the DL cards, plus avoiding another annual fee.) That calculus might end up changing, as I wouldn't be surprised if DL wants to entice more spending on co-branded cards and making it harder to qualify based on flights alone..

If you live in the US, you can just use three credit cards to gain access to AA, DL, and UA lounges when needed. Those should help make IRROPS easier as well.

If you go back and look at their Q2 Investor Day presentation (https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files...vF-6-26-23.pdf) they basically said they believe that business travel is still soft and that leisure travel is driving incredible demand and supporting the high pricing we've seen.

They also said basically they see that the DL SkyMiles members spend 5x more than non-members and they also are aiming to increase the profitability of the SkyMiles "brand" from $250M in 2023 to >3X long-term and they aim to achieve that by expanding SkyMiles as a defacto currency for travel-adjacent experiences and likely changing their earnings structure to align more closely with the AA approach to drive the DL AMEX as the primary card for folks anywhere (not just to the $25k MQD level).

If you read those tea leaves I think this basically suggests that they are trying to turn SkyMiles into the US version of Avios (which spoiler alert, AMEX is also heavily invested as the co-brand partner for BA/Avios) and make SkyMiles the reward currency you earn across all your spend and then in turn you can redeem for a number of different travel experiences (not just Delta Vacations or Delta flights). By the way this is something they've already dipped their toe in the water doing this with Starbucks and Lyft.