Delta to retire its entire Boeing 777 fleet by the end of the year
May 17, 2020, 11:50 am
#211
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I bet they'll take it out if the A359 doesn't have the legs to make it work. They have plenty of coverage with SEA/DTW/LAX -- only reason to have it is if local O&D supports the non-stop since everyone else on the east coast can easily connect via DTW and I suspect traffic to China will be suppressed for the foreseeable future (and there was already pressure on loads to China given all the capacity that had been in the market pre-COVID).
May 17, 2020, 2:26 pm
#212
Join Date: Feb 2005
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I bet they'll take it out if the A359 doesn't have the legs to make it work. They have plenty of coverage with SEA/DTW/LAX -- only reason to have it is if local O&D supports the non-stop since everyone else on the east coast can easily connect via DTW and I suspect traffic to China will be suppressed for the foreseeable future (and there was already pressure on loads to China given all the capacity that had been in the market pre-COVID).
What this means is ATL-JNB and JFK-BOM (especially BOM-JFK) are out, and ATL-PVG will likely require some load restrictions.
JNB-ATL (westbound) is impossible with anything other than a 777-200LR or A350-900ULR due to the elevation of JNB.
PVG will likely be served from ATL via a connection in DTW.
I expect DL to back to servicing JFK-BOM via AMS in partnership with KLM.
As for JNB, that is hard to say. Perhaps they go back to doing it with an ops stop.
The overall passenger numbers will be down for the next couple of years. DL could easily convert some A350-900 options to ULR versions.
May 17, 2020, 2:36 pm
#213
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Huh? DL says the plane can do JNB without stops. And even if they are lying to us (kinda doubt that) then they could simply convert a few of their orders to the A350ULR which can do JNB without difficulty. The ULR has the exact same fuel tanks as the regular, it just has a higher MTOW (which means that DL most likely will just receive a higher MTOW certification from Airbus for its existing jets)
May 17, 2020, 2:41 pm
#214
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Looking at the respective airport planning documents for the A330-200, A350-900, and 777-200ER (I can't find one for the A330-900), the A330-200, A350-900, and 777-200ER all have similar ranges at typical Delta seating capacities, about 8,000 nautical miles. However, those are no-wind conditions, and flying west, in winter in northern latitudes (i.e, great circle routes to Asia), that drops to about 80% of max, or 6,400nm (7,365 statute miles). LAX-SYD crosses the equator, so it encounters lower wind conditions, and is doable on a 777-200ER or A350-900. I am pretty sure DL serviced the route with a 777-200ER at times.
What this means is ATL-JNB and JFK-BOM (especially BOM-JFK) are out, and ATL-PVG will likely require some load restrictions.
JNB-ATL (westbound) is impossible with anything other than a 777-200LR or A350-900ULR due to the elevation of JNB.
PVG will likely be served from ATL via a connection in DTW.
I expect DL to back to servicing JFK-BOM via AMS in partnership with KLM.
As for JNB, that is hard to say. Perhaps they go back to doing it with an ops stop.
The overall passenger numbers will be down for the next couple of years. DL could easily convert some A350-900 options to ULR versions.
What this means is ATL-JNB and JFK-BOM (especially BOM-JFK) are out, and ATL-PVG will likely require some load restrictions.
JNB-ATL (westbound) is impossible with anything other than a 777-200LR or A350-900ULR due to the elevation of JNB.
PVG will likely be served from ATL via a connection in DTW.
I expect DL to back to servicing JFK-BOM via AMS in partnership with KLM.
As for JNB, that is hard to say. Perhaps they go back to doing it with an ops stop.
The overall passenger numbers will be down for the next couple of years. DL could easily convert some A350-900 options to ULR versions.
May 17, 2020, 2:42 pm
#215
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Being EYW-based, that is my concern also. If the 737-700s go away, and the A220 can't handle EYW, we would likely lose mainline service entirely and revert back to the hideous old CRJ-700s, and the delay/cancellation numbers would go through the roof.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
May 17, 2020, 4:41 pm
#216
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Being EYW-based, that is my concern also. If the 737-700s go away, and the A220 can't handle EYW, we would likely lose mainline service entirely and revert back to the hideous old CRJ-700s, and the delay/cancellation numbers would go through the roof.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
May 17, 2020, 5:25 pm
#217
Join Date: Mar 2012
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LAX-SYD was flown by the 777-200ER for a while a few years ago when there was a shortage of 777LR (I think it was around the time one got stuck on Ascension but I could be wrong). LAX-SYD as others have eluded to is plenty doable. The BOM and JNB routes will suffer on their westbound flights-Im not sure what the plan is. I actually flew ATL-PVG twice in 2008 in May prior to the olympics and that flight was even longer on one of the trips than any of my JNB-ATL flights. I think I hit 16:30 on one of my ATL-PVG flights that year on the 777-200ER.
You must have a strong face winds (strong jet stream), and possible the "curve" of the jet stream is really not good for an ATL-PVG flight.
May 17, 2020, 5:26 pm
#218
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Being EYW-based, that is my concern also. If the 737-700s go away, and the A220 can't handle EYW, we would likely lose mainline service entirely and revert back to the hideous old CRJ-700s, and the delay/cancellation numbers would go through the roof.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
May 17, 2020, 7:57 pm
#219
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Being EYW-based, that is my concern also. If the 737-700s go away, and the A220 can't handle EYW, we would likely lose mainline service entirely and revert back to the hideous old CRJ-700s, and the delay/cancellation numbers would go through the roof.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
I seem to recall that DL briefly tried 319s into EYW, but the operational and performance results weren't good and that experiment was quickly ended.
Last edited by kiwicanuck; May 17, 2020 at 10:50 pm
May 17, 2020, 8:07 pm
#220
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May 17, 2020, 10:01 pm
#221
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DL was expecting to ramp up in MIA before all this happened. Those plans are obviously changing, but they could switch ATL-JNB to MIA-JNB.
May 17, 2020, 10:46 pm
#222
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Greer,SC,USA
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I do wonder if as a longer term play Delta might be interested in picking up United's 767-400ER fleet, which is supposedly on it's way out and could probably be had for fractions of cents on the dollar given their limited production run; I don't think any other airline in the world would have an interest except for Delta. Even if they had to go into storage for a year or two it could be worth it if they plan on keeping their own 764 fleet around.
If the A350 can't make it to ATL out of JNB, they could opt for the triangle route option via CPT as you laid out. But more likely would be moving the flight to JFK, which is almost 500 miles shorter than ATL (and 100 shorter than South Florida), plus South African is about to bite the dust and they may want to beat United to the punch on that one.
So, wild thinking-out-loud on my part, but I can live with the A350 instead of the 777 as a whole, but really hate to give up JNB. But it's not because I like to go to JNB, it's because I love to go to CPT. So, it's off to JNB on DL and then find a way to CPT (whether on SAA or the Blue Train or whatever).
The problem with JNB-USA has always been that JNB is both high and hot. Very tough to launch a very heavy ULH flight from a high and hot airport, which is why the 777-200LR was really the only equipment capable of doing it with fairly good payloads.
If JNB is to continue, it obviously will be with a stop on the westbound return (but appears you could operate ATL-JNB with the A350 nonstop). You now have to strategically plan the stop.
The old DL system (pre-777) with the stops in Dakar on the 767 was awful. So was the old SA fueling stop in the Azores.
Since CPT is sea level and cooler, could the A350 operate CPT-ATL nonstop? CPT is 300 miles closer to ATL than JNB.
Which brings up a thought: How about a circle trip operating ATL-JNB-CPT-ATL? You could sell seats from ATL to both JNB and CPT. As international routes relaunch, and demand is soft initially, seems like adding the extra destination would fill some seats that might go empty.
The other thought would be to operate JNB-SJU, perhaps, or if the A350 could make it, JNB-FLL/MIA, then onward. Folks could clear immigration in either SJU or FLL/MIA while the plane is being refueled, saving substantial time on arrival in ATL and making connections easier. There is a large South African ex-pat group in South Florida that this routing would appeal to as well. (Recall that SAA used to operate CPT-FLL-ATL back in the day on the 747, and a lot of folks got off the plane at FLL.)
So, in a sense I am trying to make lemonade out of lemons. I just hate to see Delta give up its leading role to South Africa from the US (and me have to go via Europe, with no upgrade options, to get there).
The problem with JNB-USA has always been that JNB is both high and hot. Very tough to launch a very heavy ULH flight from a high and hot airport, which is why the 777-200LR was really the only equipment capable of doing it with fairly good payloads.
If JNB is to continue, it obviously will be with a stop on the westbound return (but appears you could operate ATL-JNB with the A350 nonstop). You now have to strategically plan the stop.
The old DL system (pre-777) with the stops in Dakar on the 767 was awful. So was the old SA fueling stop in the Azores.
Since CPT is sea level and cooler, could the A350 operate CPT-ATL nonstop? CPT is 300 miles closer to ATL than JNB.
Which brings up a thought: How about a circle trip operating ATL-JNB-CPT-ATL? You could sell seats from ATL to both JNB and CPT. As international routes relaunch, and demand is soft initially, seems like adding the extra destination would fill some seats that might go empty.
The other thought would be to operate JNB-SJU, perhaps, or if the A350 could make it, JNB-FLL/MIA, then onward. Folks could clear immigration in either SJU or FLL/MIA while the plane is being refueled, saving substantial time on arrival in ATL and making connections easier. There is a large South African ex-pat group in South Florida that this routing would appeal to as well. (Recall that SAA used to operate CPT-FLL-ATL back in the day on the 747, and a lot of folks got off the plane at FLL.)
So, in a sense I am trying to make lemonade out of lemons. I just hate to see Delta give up its leading role to South Africa from the US (and me have to go via Europe, with no upgrade options, to get there).
May 17, 2020, 10:50 pm
#223
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Why would they do MIA - JNB. JFK - JNB is slightly shorter and JFK is a DL hub if for some reason they can't do ATL - JNB and the decide to keep flying there.
May 17, 2020, 11:20 pm
#224
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May 18, 2020, 5:38 am
#225
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I’d assume that anything DL has planned for MIA will either be delayed or significantly reduced. DL has said they are pausing all growth until Q4 2021 at the earliest. The only routes DL planned on adding to MIA was SLC, RDU, MCO, and TPA with the majority of those flights going to TPA and MIA. I doubt there will be much demand for commercial intra-Florida plane travel anytime soon.