SJC ORD LDR

It all depends on where people are going. SJC-ATL-JAX works quite well. OTOH, SJC-ATL-PWM is not the best routing. However, until UA started SJC-ORD/EWR recently, it was the only one stop option for that route.

Unless I really want miles, I usually will go through SLC and MSP to larger Northeastern cities and complain that smaller NE cities have no service to MSP.

GSP flyer

I'm talking about stuff like PVD/MHT-ATL-SEA and STL-ATL-SAN.

SJC ORD LDR

The problem is that the smaller northeastern cities don't have service to MSP and the smaller western cities don't have service to DTW. That makes ATL the connecting point for most everything.

minnyfly

I think your numbers are good for MSP and DTW. I'm getting mid-40s for MSP and low 40s for DTW working with mainline and regional domestic-only. Adding international would drop them a bit due to the NRT hub, but not far.

However I think you're underestimating Atlanta's dominance. My not-perfect estimate for 2016 domestic passengers pegs ATL as having roughly a 50% share of the domestic load (again mainline and regional). Adding international won't change it nearly enough to get down to 40%. If ATL had no international passengers, they would still be at roughly 40%. If we did just mainline, ATL's share would soar even higher.

So I think the evidence is clear. DL is more dependent on ATL than NW was with either MSP or DTW. And this doesn't take into account how MSP, DTW, and even somewhat MEM were largely complementary, flowing mostly the same traffic and helping pick up slack from another. That's not the case with ATL. It's mostly on its own island. CVG, MSP, and DTW can't pick up much of the ATL flow.

readywhenyouare

Maybe when the C-series joins the fleet that can change. The smallest aircraft that can currently fly those small cities to smaller hubs like DTW and MSP is the A319 and it is a horribly uneconomical aircraft. They would only be able to make it work with insanely high fares. Anyone who doubts me just take a look at the orders for the A319neo, it is DOA. If the C-series is as efficient as it advertised then it could very well be worth it for Delta to remove the A319 from the fleet.

GSP flyer

For routes like PVD/MHT/ORF/PWM/COS/RNO-MSP (and MSP really is the best connection complex for 2nd tier Northeast-2nd Tier West Coast; DTW is less well suited to this), the CR9s, E170s, and 717s are great. Problem is that there aren't enough-DL has committed a large chunk of that fleet to the LAX/SEA ramp-ups and elsewhere.

I think of the C-Series as more useful for missions like SLC-PIT/RDU and ATL-BIL; second tier SLC/LAX and third tier ATL destinations that are three quarters of a transcon long rather than straight midcons like anything flown out of MSP.

TheBOSman

The C-Series and the A319 are really more economical on the longer stage runs. The reason DL has grabbed all of the MD-90s and 717s it can find is they are overall better on 2-3 hour runs than the 4-6 hour runs that the A319 really should be doing where possible. Newer planes with better fuel efficiency on the longer routes, older planes with less fuel efficiency on the shorter routes, where it isn't as noticeable. The 717, in hindsight, is a great plane for 2-3 hour flights from an operational perspective. The C-Series should definitely be operated on those longer routes that you note. If I see a C-Series here in AUS I'll be personally happy but it probably isn't the best plane for AUS-any DL Hub.

DA201

The most efficient hub in the US is DEN, but ATL is definitely 2 or 3. LAX is the worst, but it is mostly O&D so it doesn't really matter...

I have a family member flying from Florida to DEN who was stuck in a hotel room in ATL the past two nights. DL cancelled her original flight and rebooked her later in the day for her first leg to get her to ATL right before they stopped all flights. I don't know why they didn't think to rebook her through a different airport when they cancelled her first flight. She has status on DL too.

TMOliver

1. Which came first, DL or Atlanta? Without one, would the other simply fold its tent and steal away?

2. Whether it's "Climate Change", "Global Warming", or simply the luck of the draw, recently ATL seems to be the focal point for more disturbed weather than in previous years. Of course, it seems only yesterday that DFW was "Storm Center".

pbarnette

Ummm... You can already fly PVD/MHT-DTW-SEA and STL-SLC/MSP-SAN.

exwannabe

The Mayor, City Council, and their owners. Then DL.

Random noise. Might go the rest of the year with mild events, or tornadoes circling for landing at the airport.

FF524

Absence of competition does breed apathy and complacency. No wiavers even though the data available suggested it was going to be a long day or two for ATL operations. I loath the non peek lulls of the travel year when non-stops to CVG from the like of MCO via Delta disappear under the guise of capacity, and the only way home is through ATL or a non stop on Allegiant or Frontier. Delta and some on this board often suggest that gratitude is appropriate from me for having any Delta service when I fuss about RJ only service - only to have the RJs get an upgrade once new completion is intoduced into margin friendly markets as has happened with Frontiers expansion and the arrival of Southwest at CVG and is the true tell of what motivates Delta (and almost all companies for that matter).

HDQDD

According to who? Internet armchair COOs?

Robbyb03

Denver is not the most efficient airport in the USA according to every single worthwhile aviation group. Air Transport Research Society, in 2016, named ATL the most efficient airport in the world for the 13th straight year!

BiggAW

Yes. ATL is too big of a hub. In fact, any hub is too big of a hub. The hub and spoke model has been proven not to work by WN's and B6's success. Yes, WN has focus cities, rolling hubs, and connections, and I'm not sure exactly how the math works out on those versus a traditional hub-and-spoke model like the legacies, but far fewer WN customers have to get connecting flights than customers of the legacies.

With the exception of the Upper Peninsula of MI, the Dakotas, Montana and Wyoming, each of which only have partial WN coverage and almost no population, WN covers the entire CONUS with around 1/3 the number of airports that DL has.

The legacies need to get rid of hubs and move to focus cities like other airlines, and add way more direct flights. They also need to do some serious airport pruning, they have 100+ redundant airports, so concentrating the traffic at the larger ones would aid in direct flights, and more direct flights would further encourage people to seek alternate airports in a region if they could get a direct flight versus a connecting flight. My area is lucky in that WN went into PVD instead of BOS, effectively killing GON, which, like HVN for AA, is a redundant airport for commercial service.

In practicality, they would still have focus cities in the same places they have hubs today, they would just push their direct flight traffic way up. DL's connecting traffic has to be a bit higher than WN's because of international flights, but for domestic travel, they should aim for 80% direct flight pax like WN.