747-800i

I don't want a vaccine passport or the vaccine. I just think we should dispense with this theater that isn't keeping COVID out of anywhere. At risk people in any given country are primarily at risk from other people spreading it within their community, not the rare traveler that imports a case.

seawolf

Did COVID spontaneously show up everywhere across the globe? Did the virus ride the jet stream to cross oceans?

Mutated strains is what the CDC is concern about thus they are not dropping testing requirement even for returning fully-vaccinated-in-the-US travelers with CDC vaccinated cards.

the810

What about mutated strains of other viruses? Any virus can mutate to a form that is more dangerous (H5N1 anyone?), so why aren't we testing for all viruses?

And what about covid mutations that are beneficial (more infectious but much less deadly)? Are we trying to keep those out as well? Most of previous pandemics ended to a large extent thanks to mutations.

If you want to prevent new diseases from being imported, you are going to be locked down forever (and even that will be far from perfect due to many loopholes - ultimately every variant with a significant evolutionary advantage will find a way in and will take over). We didn't do it before 2020 and we shouldn't do it in 2021.

seawolf

Which other virus do you have in mind?

Is that virus as contagious especially even when host exhibits no symptoms? Is that virus sending the more vulnerable portion of the population to the hospital or the morgue in weeks/months?

NW.BTR.Than.The.Rest

Anything can happen, but they should not test positive for ACTIVE virus for weeks or months. They would have a positive test for antibodies.

the810

Well, we have been debating possible new mutations finding their way into the US. Any virus can mutate to the form you described, not just the covid.

I already mentioned the example of H5N1, which is far more deadly from the "normal" influenza and indeed more deadly than covid - its fatality rate is estimated between 14% and 33% (with covid, it's at most 1,5% of identified cases, with the real fatality rate being lower as many/most cases were never identified). All we need is for it to mutate to a more infectious variant (among humans) and we are up for a show several times worse than the covid pandemic. Another example would be the Spanish flu which had a fatality rate estimated at 2-3% during the 1918 pandemic, with a death toll of 20 to 50 million people in circa two years (while covid has killed 3 millions in more than a year).

So if possible emerging variants are the issue, why are we only focusing on testing people for covid and not for other viruses, which can mutate just as easily?

This is all about people being extremely bad at estimating risk, favouring threats they are used to over new threats. From the psychological perspective, I am convinced that if a new influenza strain emerged that would have similar properties as SARS-nCov-2, there would be no lockdowns, no major border restrictions, no hysteria - just because of a different name.

747-800i

It's a waste of keystrokes. There are some people who are afraid of their own shadow and essentially want us to lockdown, distance, wear masks and keep restrictions in place forever. There's no reasoning with them.

seawolf

. I think it needs to be looked at from multiple dimensions. It is not just about fatality rate. Avian flu is fatal based on your link but how contagious is it?

https://www.who.int/influenza/human_...earch/faqs/en/

Most people don’t handle contaminated birds in a nursing home or a movie theatre or a restaurant or a cruise ship etc.

I agreed. Waste of keystrokes. Impossible to convince someone if the most reasoning (if you can call it that) exhibited is the current policy must be security theatre because there can’t possibly be any other rationale behind it.

corporate-wage-slave

The UK went from one of the worst places in the world for COVID-19 to just about the lowest in Europe in the course of the last 3 months, using a combination of vaccines, lockdowns, social distancing and other things that I suspect you would call theatre. There is an undeniable fact, vaccines were introduced in the UK and USA at almost the same time, and at that point infection and death rates in both countries were terrible. Both countries have improved somewhat since then. The official estimate, which is way too conservative, is that vaccines in the UK have saved 10,400 lives in Quarter 1 2021. The real figure I think is about 40% higher than this. Had the USA adopted the same extra measures, approximately 121,000 Americans would be alive today. Twice the number of Americans killed in Vietnam. You can resurrect a holiday, you can resurrect an education, you can resurrect an economy, but at least in this world you can't resurrect the dead.

The longer people hold out against getting vaccinations, the longer people will have to wait until we can normalise to a disease which humans control, rather than the disease controlling us. Historically vaccines are up there with fresh water and clean sanitation in terms of saving lives.

747-800i

Well luckily we live in a free world for now and I don't need to justify my decisions to you. As a young, healthy person, there is no need for me to get a vaccine that was developed on what is for my tastes too abbreviated a timeline, using new technology and with no data on possible medium and longterm side effects. Healthy people under 50 are essentially at an exceedingly low risk of serious illness/death from COVID. Old and infirm people can protect themselves with the shot. Being as the vax doesn't prevent you from catching or spreading covid, if you're worried about it and you got the vax, why do you need to force it on others? Also if your goal is to keep COVID OUT of a place, how would letting vaccinated people in without tests serve that aim if they can carry and transmit COVID?

the810

Did you read my post before replying to it? We were talking about possible new mutations. Just like SARS-nCov-2 mutates, so do other viruses. I specifically said that the avian flu could theoretically also mutate to a version more infectious among humans, that was the whole point. Thus, if we are concerned about other theoretically possible mutations of covid, we should be equally concerned about possible mutations of other viruses and test the hell out of everyone who ever dares to leave their country, their city or their street.

But we never done it - and rightly so. Hopefully we'll soon stop doing it with covid too.

corporate-wage-slave

And I would totally defend you in exercising that right to be left alone. Historically forced vaccinations are counter productive anyway. But I think if you're not prepared to do some heavy lifting - actually light lifting of your shirt sleeve - then you do lose the ability to speed up a process which is now demonstrated, without any remaining shadow of doubt, to work. If you're happy with staying at home untested, unvaccinated, that's your perogative, it has some advantages. If you want to get about and see this amazing, splendid planet then you need to get your jab, get tested occasionally, and lobby the decision makers to get cracking on preventative measures in less affluent countries. You won't be able to wish the theatre away, it is what it is. But you can protect yourself, those you love, and prevent the medical system in your area from being overloaded by a simple, safe, effective and painless (at least when I administer it) vaccine.

747-800i

The neg test has been sufficient and I expect it will remain sufficient. I don't think it makes a meaningful difference in the case rates of various countries though. The time to quarantine was before it was everywhere, however some papers suggest COVID was circulating from Sept. 2019 or earlier, so who knows if it was ever even possible.

Often1

The politics and anti-vax rhetoric is OT to this thread.

Bottom line is that there is a good chance that an air corridor will require full vaccination . Travel is entirely voluntary and those who are not vaccinated may face other restrictions or requirements or an outright ban. Way too early to rell and there is always OMNI-PR to discuss the merits rather than the practicalities.

seawolf

The bird flu is nothing like COVID. It’s not even close. That is why bird flu mutation is not on the radar. You are looking at how fatal bird flu is but discounting how contagious it is not.

Total death of 455 (not a typo) worldwide over 17 years does not even qualify as a rounding error of COVID deaths.

https://www.who.int/influenza/human_...e_archives/en/

As for Spanish flu, we’re talking about a different era where masses are not crossing oceans for leisure. You could have been seriously sick just by drinking water.

CDC tracking various COVID strains.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...n/variant.html

Note that UK and South African strains arrived in US before CDC test requirement on arrivals. The yet to be mutated strains is what CDC and other countries are trying to contain not the ones already established. Health authorities care about COVID mutations but not bird flu mutations because COVID is highly contagious whereas bird flu is not.

If the bird flu mutates to be highly contagious, health authorities will deal with it then. COVID is high contagious and deadly in the here and now. They are taking this step even on US vaccinated because there is no data to determine how much protection vaccines afford. It could be very effective or not. Science does not know at this moment. What we do know is testing can help prevent a new strain crossing borders. I suppose it is possible a new strain could escape existing testing but even then we sure wouldn’t know how much protection vaccines provide for that.