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Speculation on Dec Flying as a Function of COVID

Speculation on Dec Flying as a Function of COVID

Old Nov 17, 20, 12:42 pm
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Speculation on Dec Flying as a Function of COVID

I am curious as to the opinions that people on FT have as to what they think will happen in December with flying in general as COVID cases in the US really explode and as various governments increase restrictions.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 12:54 pm
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Flying will not go down to the very low levels of April, since now many people are more tired of the virus than scared of it.

However, there will probably be some lightening of loads, as some activities are suspended or postponed due to new restrictions / stay-home advisories.

Also I'm guessing this will not be limited to UA.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 12:59 pm
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I think airlines are in a tough spot. As many have said, their entire business model is in direct opposition to public health. One could even argue it is unethical to encourage (e.g. fare sales, mileage discounts, double EQM) non-essential travel. On the one hand, they wanna keep the lights on. OTOH, at what cost?
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Old Nov 17, 20, 1:46 pm
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Originally Posted by sexykitten7 View Post
I think airlines are in a tough spot. As many have said, their entire business model is in direct opposition to public health. One could even argue it is unethical to encourage (e.g. fare sales, mileage discounts, double EQM) non-essential travel. On the one hand, they wanna keep the lights on. OTOH, at what cost?
The airlines, like most other businesses, are not in the business to make social decisions for others. They offer a product and consumers choose to purchase or not.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 2:11 pm
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I anticipate people will continue to fly United, as they currently are. I anticipate the people who donít want to fly wonít be forced to and they can stay home if they wish.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 2:19 pm
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Originally Posted by JimInOhio View Post
The airlines, like most other businesses, are not in the business to make social decisions for others. They offer a product and consumers choose to purchase or not.
Boom! Each person should make his/her own choice as they see fit.

I am seeing my family and friends for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, and in the process, should cross 100K miles flown this year.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 2:30 pm
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Not sure what this has to do with UA. It's the same issue for every other carrier as well as Amtrak, Greyhound and for that matter, Avis.

Not remotely worth speculating. Many of the factors go well beyond whether people are willing to take the risk and go to enhanced travel limitations, e.g. pre-flight testing and quarantine. Example: prior to October 15, when Hawaii opened to tourism with strict pre-arrival testing to waive out of quarantine, travel to Hawaii was close to zero and there was almost no service. With the new scheme, travel is inching back. If the restrictions were put back in place, people would generally stop flying to Hawaii again, projected demand would drop again, and frequencies would be cancelled.

While this thread asks about domestic travel, good examples exist with respect to travel to other countries where rules have tightened and travel has dropped.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 2:32 pm
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I'm heading to Vegas 11/25 - and several people have offered to meet me, who aren't even regular travelers. I think some people will cancel plans with places with high restrictions - many will still follow thru with plans - and perhaps some of the cancellations will be made up with low prices and people willing to pull the trigger.

If I look at the online newspaper and it states Vegas is shutting restaurants/bars and other significant restrictions - or if Hawaii ends the Safe Traveler program (both of which is a real possibility) - I will cancel my plans and go another time. This goes for people planning on going to California or Oregon - I'd just cancel given all the restrictions right now.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 3:07 pm
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I think this will tend to vary heavily depending on the market. I don't really see those planning to visit relatives or friends for the holidays changing their plans at this point. Possibly those planning to go on vacation to places like California where restaurants are being shut down may choose a different location to travel to. Otherwise, I don't imagine there will be any major effects on December flying one way or the other.
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Old Nov 17, 20, 3:36 pm
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
I think this will tend to vary heavily depending on the market. I don't really see those planning to visit relatives or friends for the holidays changing their plans at this point. Possibly those planning to go on vacation to places like California where restaurants are being shut down may choose a different location to travel to. Otherwise, I don't imagine there will be any major effects on December flying one way or the other.
So far, only indoor dining in CA is shutting down, but that has already been shut down almost all year in LA county. That said, indoor dining is shutting down across the county, but at least outdoor dining in LA/SD is completely feasible in winter, unlike in MI or IL. I think demand to warmer climates will continue as long as travel is allowed (the CA quarantine restrictions are currently still 'guidelines,' as opposed to in NY and IL). I thought it was interesting that AA recently decided to slash their flights for Nov/Dec, while UA increased their flights for the same period, citing contradicting claims regarding demand. Either way, none of the half-measures being adopted in the USA will do much to stem the tide of whatever wave this is, so it is safe to say that everything will be in perpetual flux until at least mid January (Thanksgiving and Christmas will result in more case surges, just as every holiday since July 4th has).
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Old Nov 17, 20, 3:37 pm
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United has quite a few hubs located in cities/regions that are on the more restrictive side (thinking ORD, SFO, EWR, and to a lesser extent IAD). I wonder if that will increase or decrease travel out of those locations? I know quite a few people in California who have canceled Thanksgiving travel, but that's just anecdotal so no idea if it's a real trend. (Myself included incidentally, my stable is requiring people who travel out of state not to come to the barn for two weeks after return, and not willing to give up horseback for 2 weeks in exchange for a 1 week trip)
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Old Nov 17, 20, 3:50 pm
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Originally Posted by Often1 View Post
Not sure what this has to do with UA. It's the same issue for every other carrier as well as Amtrak, Greyhound and for that matter, Avis.....
Agreed and will sent to Coronavirus and travel

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Old Nov 17, 20, 5:08 pm
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Attempting our first flights in December . Last was in January when we were in Bangkok . The first CoVid 19 case was announced there day before our flight ..
BKK , was caught off guard , not prepared or ready with fingers & thumbs touch scans were still required at immigration on departure . No sanitizers provided then at counters either .

With HKG SIN air travel bubble ( ATB ) beginning in time for Thanksgiving , not that it is a holiday in Asia , on 22 November it will be interesting to see how everything pains out . At least no quarantine required , just bureaucratic protocol & 3 ‘ swabbings ‘ needed . So December is decent window to test it .
Hear some flights are already full . Only 200 passengers allowed each flight too .

Community spread is generally low ( or even none for a week in Singapore ) in these parts where masking up is a norm , or has become one .
Just having to bear with imported cases !!
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Old Nov 17, 20, 6:28 pm
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Originally Posted by dcpdxtrans View Post
I am curious as to the opinions that people on FT have as to what they think will happen in December with flying in general as COVID cases in the US really explode and as various governments increase restrictions.
On the contrary, governments around the world are decreasing restrictions in general and there's no reason to think that will change. Most places are setttling on the standard covid test before entry which is not ideal but is fine for winter travel.
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Old Nov 18, 20, 8:23 am
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Originally Posted by Repooc17 View Post
Boom! Each person should make his/her own choice as they see fit.

I am seeing my family and friends for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, and in the process, should cross 100K miles flown this year.
We're 8 months in to this and people still are unable to grasp that individual actions have external results. And that's why we are exploding right now.
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