So in Australia all international arrivals are currently quarantined in hotels for 14 days, they cannot leave the room. Currently the government is paying for this but once things are under control here and until there is a vaccine/herd immunity I’d expect we’ll continue continue with this approach whereby all international arrivals will be quarantined, at their expense, until such time they can show they’re not a carrier. I doubt all countries will follow this sort of approach but being an island nation which has a history of fairly strict bio-security regulations I suspect we will.

and I have to say, I’m kinda surprised at the number of Americans in this thread who don’t seem to realise that they are the epicentre of the virus for the foreseeable future and most countries won’t be wanting anyone who has been through the US anywhere near their borders anytime soon.

Yup. Having watched US press Conference over the last few weeks, there has been a similar trend.

They are talking about us being a threat. Perhaps it’s the other way round in reality.

Wouldn't an antibody test be the only test that shows a person to have some potential immunity from COVID-19?

I think it will vary a lot on a case-by-case basis. My guess, FWIW, is that outside of certain common travel zones (e.g. Schengen and the CTA) or areas with frequent cross-border travel (Canada/US and US/Mexico) you're going to see at least something that looks suspiciously like a suspension of visa-free travel for a bit. I'd probably combine this with a regime of tests (alongside a reduced/circumstantial quarantine) for business travel (since there are times that physical presence cannot be avoided...the best example I can give is site walk-through for an event; pacing out floorspace is something that a VR tour just won't cut it for; some court proceedings can get tricky in this respect as well...or at least, could until recently).

When things open back up? Who knows? I suspect the airline industry is going to go through some nasty disruptions (partly owing to a loss of business...my spitballed guess is that for a year or so after the initial burn-through and pending herd immunity/a widely-administered and widely-effective vaccine, domestic air travel will be off at least 25% and intercontinental/long-haul international travel will be off over 50%) and there's a good chance this kills of the super-cheap airline circumstances we've known for the last few decades. The hit here is just too darned big to "fix" with discounts, and at some point lower load factors will force some combination of service cuts (I see some smaller airports either losing service, losing nonstop service to hubs, or losing one or more airlines) and higher fares to reach equilibrium. As a particular example, Dulles is probably in financial trouble (it wasn't in great shape a few years ago, but there was hope that the metro getting extended there would help). Oakland and some of the smaller LA airports are probably going to take this on the chin as well. And so on.

An optimistic scenario would be that airlines go and pull a few rows of seats out or expand their F/J cabins to compensate for having too much fleet and a lot of markets where a larger 737 or A32X is "too much plane" and they don't have the right fleet mix to go smaller (for whatever reason, including but not limited to being saddled with lots of planes that are surplus to requirements or situations where a smaller plane can't run the route...think some of the longer TATL/TPAC routes where you can't exactly put a regional jet into the mix). A pessimistic scenario would involve mostly the current cabins (I think Y is often reaching close to as far down as it can go) and worse games with baggage fees and the like. A moderate scenario might involve re-expanding the F cabin and seriously pushing W (effectively going to a full three-cabin setup where Y is pretty crappy, W is decent, and F is solid so pax are "pushed" to W).

And of course, I haven't mentioned the chance that the government has to step in and partially re-regulate things to avoid one or more majors going under. AA has big problems as I understand it, while DL has an unlucky debt balloon coming up. I can't say that much about UA, and WN looks like it is in good shape (AS's picture is perhaps more complicated because of issues stemming from the VX merger).

This piece appears to me overly pessimistic. Look at the picture captured "women praying from roof of church". I don't see a church, a roof. And the window she's at, looks like one of many houses around Italy..........

Most are I think.

The thing is though, most leisure as well as business travel is less than 14 days. A 14 day quarantine is, for most, an effective ban on travel.

Exactly so it's not a viable option going forward. Yes an antibody certificate is ideal but what about say the 50-75% of the population that don't get it either the virus or access to a test? I think it will just be on a country by country basis e.g. they have had no new cases for 4 weeks.

However, there should probably be a more consistent approach in identifying of cases as recently there has been reports of some countries like China which has left asymptomatic cases out of official count, even though they are under 14-day observation. There should probably be a guide by WHO to determine what is safe and what isn't and a country that is not testing as much might have easily less cases compared to another that is testing vigorously. So once every country can get that testing right, and infected numbers are kept low, that is time to re-open air travel.

I am saying that because in the last few weeks, even South Korea has not been able to push new caseloads to zero. Probably they were actively seeking out cases and there are no lockdowns yet in Seoul. But compared to many other countries, South Korea is quite safe.

So when will long haul travel open up? There is lots of pessimism but Americans airlines are starting up their routes from DUB in June.


I was trying to go to America in February, I should’ve just went then.

This article from Australia suggests 'normal' life might not resume until late July (ie lockdown until then), with intl flights beginning "much" later than that.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...X1CAFdm_ynBBss

Air New Zealand is now a "domestic airline", and will likely be MUCH smaller in the future according to its CEO:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinr.../#26f461e6e36f

Amazing, considering they unveiled their Flat Bed in Economy Class just over a month ago! :eek:
https://samchui.com/2020/02/26/air-n...economy-class/

It will be things like THAT that won't happen going forward. Innovation like that happens when the industry is booming.
Expect lackluster EVERYTHING in airports and on planes when flying resumes.....oh, and an obligatory "COVID-19 Cleaning & Prevention Fee [CVCPF]" of U$32.00 added to every ticket purchased!
(only my guess, not fact-based)

Yes, indeed. Better testing will reduce that timeframe but it’s either that or shutting down the economy every time travellers import new cases. Until there’s a vaccine/herd immunity countries who can isolate themselves will.

I don’t see much travel starting in the foreseeable future. Especially business travel. Virtual meetings aren’t ideal but are getting better, at a time when travel is very restricted and is likely to say so for months or years. People will be very much used to working virtually by the time travel becomes possible.

All these cheerful perspectives of “back to normal by <insert month>” slightly amuse me. EVERYTHING depends on the scenario at the destination airport, and that Nation’s Health assessments and acceptance of risk ... including their dependence on tourism and the robustness of their healthcare systems. Who would want to be the President/Prime Minister who makes the call to resume business as usual ... with a global, trasmissable disease for which there is yet no cure or vaccination?

I can’t (yet) contemplate getting to South Afrca in December.