OK fine lets actually hope so the infections eventually reduce, we think there's a possibility we had it too in mid February it was a strange cold/flu but not with all the classic symptoms, after a trip to Tenerife, but left there before those Italians were in that hotel, but will be a while before we know, I for one would buy a test if you could get hold of one!

I'm not a doctor, nor an epidemiologist but I would be targeting Labor Day as the first weekend with relaxed domestic travel restrictions in the US. A month longer for the UK. A month shorter for southern Europe.

We have our honeymoon to Tokyo planned for Feb 2021 and that's right at the edge of what I'd consider safe for leisure international travel.


US-based predictions ahead:

Companies that don't actually require in-person work (Staring at you consultants) are already retooling and retraining to run completely remotely. I'd guess that sort of work, including financial services, will be back in the office in mid-May to June.

Sadly, I can't see restaurants or bars being reopened for at least 3 months, even then it'd be with limited seating and service at best. They're completely toast.

My bold prediction is that we're going to see a wholesale shift of former service industry workers into fulfillment centers to suit the incredible demand that's going on. Even with that the real unemployment number will start to hit 20-22% by the end of April as the strongest of the restaurants finally run out of cash and SBA options.

Testing
 

We have to stress antibody testing vs current infection testing. Current infection testing is important for isolation, antibody testing would be helpful for a variety of reasons.

If you've had COVID-19 and recovered taking one of the current tests would not help. These tests only indicate if you are currently infected or not. There is an antibody test, not widely available, that can show if a person has COVID-19 antibodies indicating previous exposure.

Agree. What do people think about the new app they are talking about for contact tracing, bit big brother but could be helpful?

In the ideal world, you would need to submit to a fingerstick or saliva test upon arrival to the airport which could read results in five minutes. If negative you may enter, if positive you are denied entry. All airport employees would need be tested for every shift. Logistically I cannot imagine entrusting the TSA to administer this test and I can definitely see the civil liberties people going nuts about this. Initially this could still be manageable with the limited number of travelers and staff, but I do not know of any airport capable of dealing with this bottleneck during peak volume, not to mention holidays.

The problem with antibody certificates would be that they would have to be verified and similar to the checks that go on with issuing a passport. Again this is possible, but the test has to be perfect with no false negatives or otherwise it is moot.

...which is currently not implementable and in no way practical or feasible.

New Zealand is going through an interesting "experiment" right now, effectively shut down the whole country (from what i can tell among the strictest policies of Western countries) and allied to the fact that we are far away from most places and an island nation, it seems conceivable that we could effectively eliminate the virus. But then what? Do we keep our borders closed for 12/18/24/36 months? Maybe allow travel to and from some small pacific island neighbours?
Sobering and depressing thought. Our family holiday to Europe in December is looking highly unlikely, expensive J tickets on Qatar and non refundable hotels likely to be a write off.

Not sure given how this thing has run the course from Far East, to Western Countries, and yet to see how winter in the Southern Hemisphere goes as well as Africa.

Look at what is currently the response of China and other countries to any foreigners, hard to believe unless we wake up and a vaccine shows up anything is possible. " “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.” “We’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

I'm not planning a thing for leisure and only hope my work and my children's work return to some sort of recovery by end of summer.

Like the Trump quotes lol. So the answer just seems to be a time thing then?

Unfortunately, I have no hope for September. I want business travel to resume to a normal state. I am not optimistic.

Here's why. In the US, New York is in a crisis. This started really happening in early March. Los Angeles and, to a lesser degree, San Francisco, are starting as is New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago. Based on New York's timeline, their first wave might be happening from mid-March to late April. That doesn't mean NYC is back to normal on April 30 but that the number of deaths every day level off. If so, MSY / DTW / ORD's first crisis might be from early April to late-May. By then, I expect a third wave of cities. I don't know what they will be but what if it is Miami, Boston, St. Louis? Is it possible that there won't be a 3rd wave but I am skeptical. That 3rd wave could be June-August. When the wave is tapering, travel will not start immediately because there still will be many cases.

No, I fear a tough 2020. 2021 will be better but there will still be a wartime mindset accompanied by some who feel they are worn out and some who feel there's been too many restrictions. Relief won't be until late 2022 or early 2023. In the mean time, I advocate widespread use of MASKS to reduce the spread by asymptomatic people, social distancing, staying at home, etc.

I know it's a dreadful situation over there but what about European travel?

See my post directly above this one. I would expect US-European travel to normalize after US domestic travel. September is way too optimistic in my opinion.

A combination quick test / antibody test would allow some international travel to happen. I would also expect there to be some mutual agreements, for example Taiwan - Singapore could happen within a few months with both agreeing the other country is contained and allowing travel between with direct flights only. In any case will be months.

Maybe I wasn't clear I was asking about intra European travel, maybe treat the same as US domestic in your example? Can economies that rely heavily on tourism survive or be supported that long?