With all due respect, I think you're being paranoid.

CO is not likely to lose any assets by having them at IAH. Alicia was pretty disruptive in terms of torrential rainfall and gusty winds, but there's a pretty healthy distance between Galveston and North Houston.

And suggesting that CO run an extra widebody to Hawaii out of EWR is really over the top. Why not move IAH-LGW to EWR? Or IAH-CDG? Or IAH-AMS? Or IAH-NRT? Or any number of other flights? Come on.

I, like you, am headed to our fiftieth state this weekend, but I'm not going to sweat this hurricane. Enjoy your trip.

Check out the 2005 Harris County Flood Control District Hurricane Tracker

Also here's a link to an article from the Houston Chronicle that was posted on the Yahoo CAL board by iahphx: Models show 'massive devastation' in Houston

Remember the dateline of this article: 2/20/05. It describes a theoretical storm whose track is very similar to the projections for Rita, but whose winds are substantially stronger (Cat 4/5 vs projected Cat 3).

With all due respect, the local Houston weathermen seem to be talking about Cat 4 righ now

And don't forget, most of the damage comes from the tornados spawned by the hurricane, not by the hurricane's winds @:-) .

EmailKid

As of this moment, Rita is not forecasted to be stronger than Cat 2.

Not likely to lose any assets? Would you be willing to take that chance if they were your aircraft? What is wrong with having a contingency plan in place?

I am not suggesting CO run *extra* flights to those destinations - I am suggesting there be an option on the table for discussion that given, say, 70% of the pax booked on these flights are connections from outside IAH, and given the possibility the storm will hit at or near Houston as a Cat4, that it would be more prudent to re-route these pax from their origin point to EWR and operate these flights as scheduled ex-EWR instead of 1) cancelling them at IAH, and 2) leaving these much needed widebody aircraft on the ground while a strong hurricane comes ashore some 60 miles away.

I am not being paranoid, I am looking at prudent options to consider. The kind of cavalier attitude you're suggesting is what my ex-I.T. VP displayed last year when the 3 hurricanes rolled ashore in Florida and our data center was unprotected and without a power generator - millions in production and shipping lost because someone didn't get off their arse to think through some prudent options.

The decision doesn't need to be made now - they can make it late Thursday or even early Friday after assessing the conditions and forecasts at that time.

From the NHC:

100kt is about 115mph which is Category 3.

...and I certainly would not get overwrought for Friday night connections, since, given the speed of storm advance, Rita's center would still be well at sea on Friday.

Hurricanes in the Western Gulf become infrequent after Spetember 15, as the traditional Fall High Pressure areas begin to replace Summer flows off the Sierra Madres. There are a couple of high pressure areas in play now, and the old "conventional logic" would have the storm turning North along or East of Katrina's track. In any case, at this point, Galveston/Houston is no more likely to be center-punched than is any other of a dozen stretches of coast from Tampico to the Red Neck Riviera, with emphasis on the stretch from Boca Chica/South Padre Is. along the 700+ mile crescent to Mobile. That's a lot of coast for a hurricane with no well developed center which could stay small while growing more severe with a small focussed eye, striking the coast on a narrow front of a few miles, do a Katrina and intensify while growing far larger and more dangerous, stay about the same - the lowest possibility, since water temperature in the Gulf remains above air temperature, or be redirected by continental weather conditions. If she intensifies and grows larger, odds are she'll slow slightly, changing the projected coastal impact time.

It's still about 24 hours too early to accurately project potential conditions at IAH Saturday night, and I'm sure CO is burning the midnight oil trying to decode whether, when and how far to move a/c, big birds and the fleet of regional jets hubbed there. The Ops Department's call is the "moment" and the "distance" far enough for no more than a good fresh water washdown, close enough to be back in service in 12-24 hours (which would be the longest projected shutdown of IAH).

Fuel sales and landing fees in some small airports in Central & West Texas may get a brief boost.

TMO

I stand corrected... need to read more closely

Since I live in Houston, CO's assets are the least of my concerns. That is, except the one I'm riding home on Thursday

I absolutely would have done what you did. Those who disagree would be tempting fate...

Me too. I have no quibble with bocastephen's successful effort to switch his IAH connection to an EWR connection to avoid potential weather complications.

My only quibble was with his suggestion that CO should run an extra EWR-HNL flight and rebook IAH-HNL passengers on it in advance when the ultimate course and effect of the hurricane is still very hard to predict.

I heard on CNN that "Rita" is forecasted to become a category 4 storm by 2 p.m. tomorrow afternoon. (eastern time)

That would be correct.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 24.0N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 24.1N 84.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 24.5N 89.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 25.0N 91.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 27.0N 94.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 30.0N 97.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 34.1N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

Here's the 5:00 PM report, 115 knot winds, IAH is 30.0N 95.3W, well within the 72 Hour error range:

They could relocate their planes to inland airports such as AUS, SAT, DFW, DAL, etc...

They could also temporarily operate (mini hub) out of these airports until IAH is back on line. DFW has a lot of empty gates thanks to Delta. AUS and SAT have about 4-5 gates available each.

Flying time from IAH to these cities at the most is 45 minutes.