...and I certainly would not get overwrought for Friday night connections, since, given the speed of storm advance, Rita's center would still be well at sea on Friday.

Hurricanes in the Western Gulf become infrequent after Spetember 15, as the traditional Fall High Pressure areas begin to replace Summer flows off the Sierra Madres. There are a couple of high pressure areas in play now, and the old "conventional logic" would have the storm turning North along or East of Katrina's track. In any case, at this point, Galveston/Houston is no more likely to be center-punched than is any other of a dozen stretches of coast from Tampico to the Red Neck Riviera, with emphasis on the stretch from Boca Chica/South Padre Is. along the 700+ mile crescent to Mobile. That's a lot of coast for a hurricane with no well developed center which could stay small while growing more severe with a small focussed eye, striking the coast on a narrow front of a few miles, do a Katrina and intensify while growing far larger and more dangerous, stay about the same - the lowest possibility, since water temperature in the Gulf remains above air temperature, or be redirected by continental weather conditions. If she intensifies and grows larger, odds are she'll slow slightly, changing the projected coastal impact time.

It's still about 24 hours too early to accurately project potential conditions at IAH Saturday night, and I'm sure CO is burning the midnight oil trying to decode whether, when and how far to move a/c, big birds and the fleet of regional jets hubbed there. The Ops Department's call is the "moment" and the "distance" far enough for no more than a good fresh water washdown, close enough to be back in service in 12-24 hours (which would be the longest projected shutdown of IAH).

Fuel sales and landing fees in some small airports in Central & West Texas may get a brief boost.

TMO