CO isn't losing high status pax. FT is a skewed demographic. Market research, at least what's published, is that few meaningful pax actually jump ship and those that do, do so because economic conditions force a change over ticket prices or the individual pax shifts travel pattern to routes served better by other carriers or physically moves to a location served better by a carrier.

The choices aren't very real anymore: 1) CO to UA, but so what, they will be one carrier soon enough; 2) DL or 3) AA (but restructuring means cutbacks in flights/routes).

Back in the day when there were 10 real carriers, there was competition. Still exists for those who live at major hubs such as ORD with UACO + AA, but not so much for most people.

Agreed that consolidation is reducing choices, but I think you're being a little hasty in your vague assertion that AA will result in significant cutbacks of their routes and thus make them a less viable option.

Remember, both UA and CO have "restructured" and they are still here and still both viable options.

If anything, I think AA's restructuring should make them a more potent option, as they modernize and improve their product.

If there is a paid FC pax without a seat and there are upgraded pax they will be downgraded with compensation, it has happened to me.

Another way to look at it is that the advance upgrades give you an incentive to book more travel to get to those higher tiers. So more revenue for UA. Also, "Day of" upgrades, regardless of priority by elite, will be trumped by paid/certificate upgrades, unless you're GS. And getting advance upgrades gets you through the express line at airports where Elite doesn't work, but FC does (like LAS).

The competitive dynamic argues against this thought. If one airline never offers upgrades early, and another one does, it seems clear that the other airline would use that difference to gain some business on the margin. So there would be a cost to the change. Could there also be a benefit? Of course. But if IM is doing its job the benefit should be pretty small. Not a good trade-off.

If this is a factor, then they should change their yield/inventory management to add inventory into the Y bucket when there is space available in the F cabin.