Webside for CO upgrade probability?
Mar 9, 2011 | 11:52 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,316
Webside for CO upgrade probability?
Is there a website where CO elites enter their upgrade experiences in order to compile the probability of upgrade on specific routes like there is for UA?
Mar 9, 2011 | 12:03 pm
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,887
Not that I know of, but if there were, wouldn't it need a disclaimer like "past performance is not a guarantee of future results"?
Mar 9, 2011 | 2:15 pm
#3
Join Date: May 2009
Location: EWR
Programs: UA .5M, Vistana 1-Star owner
Posts: 992
Despite my famously detailed searches, I can't find the thread where mentions of prior attempts at a such database were noted. I however also recall they were failures because the sampling sizes are too small and spotty to be accurate. Collecting such info was also dispiriting because indeed, "past performance is not a guarantee of future results".
Mar 9, 2011 | 2:20 pm
#4
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: PSM
Posts: 69,232
The sites are fun, I suppose, but there are of limited statistical significance.
Oh, and at one point I was collecting the data from folks and publishing it. That was probably 5+ years ago. I wonder if I still have that database around...
Mar 9, 2011 | 3:09 pm
#5
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Central New Jersey
Posts: 1,316
I guess these are limited for all the reasons you all mention, but when looking for guidance, particularly on less popular flights (no shortage of information on EWR-LAX/SFO), an n of 4 or 5 beats 1 or 2.
I think the UA one is reasonably populated, so I suppose it's just a matter of time before "CO" flights get captured there.
I think the UA one is reasonably populated, so I suppose it's just a matter of time before "CO" flights get captured there.