Webside for CO upgrade probability?
 

Is there a website where CO elites enter their upgrade experiences in order to compile the probability of upgrade on specific routes like there is for UA?

Not that I know of, but if there were, wouldn't it need a disclaimer like "past performance is not a guarantee of future results"?

Despite my famously detailed searches, I can't find the thread where mentions of prior attempts at a such database were noted. I however also recall they were failures because the sampling sizes are too small and spotty to be accurate. Collecting such info was also dispiriting because indeed, "past performance is not a guarantee of future results".

And it ignores the self-reporting bias, among other problems.

The sites are fun, I suppose, but there are of limited statistical significance.

Oh, and at one point I was collecting the data from folks and publishing it. That was probably 5+ years ago. I wonder if I still have that database around...

I guess these are limited for all the reasons you all mention, but when looking for guidance, particularly on less popular flights (no shortage of information on EWR-LAX/SFO), an n of 4 or 5 beats 1 or 2.

I think the UA one is reasonably populated, so I suppose it's just a matter of time before "CO" flights get captured there.