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Step 1: Denial. Things could go wrong with the merger, right?

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Step 1: Denial. Things could go wrong with the merger, right?

 
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:13 pm
  #1  
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Step 1: Denial. Things could go wrong with the merger, right?

They tell me there are five steps in the grieving process: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. I'm sure as the days go on, we'll see examples of all of them. I'll let you know when I hit denial.

But on a more serious note, something could go wrong with the merger; it mightn't happen:

  • Shareholders could vote it down
  • Financing could fall through
  • It could get a thumbs down from the government (the EU might even chime in)
  • AMR could up the ante and make a bid

There are lots of things that could happen, right? There must be hundreds more things that could go wrong. This thing might just go away; couldn't it?
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:16 pm
  #2  
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Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
They tell me there are five steps in the grieving process: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. I'm sure as the days go on, we'll see examples of all of them. I'll let you know when I hit denial.

But on a more serious note, something could go wrong with the merger; it mightn't happen:

  • Shareholders could vote it down
  • Financing could fall through
  • It could get a thumbs down from the government (the EU might even chime in)
  • AMR could up the ante and make a bid

There are lots of things that could happen, right? There must be hundreds more things that could go wrong. This thing might just go away; couldn't it?
I suppose that bocastephen's one share of stock could be the pivoting point if the vote by the CO shareholders loses by one share.
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:19 pm
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Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
They tell me there are five steps in the grieving process: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. I'm sure as the days go on, we'll see examples of all of them. I'll let you know when I hit denial.

But on a more serious note, something could go wrong with the merger; it mightn't happen:

  • Shareholders could vote it down
  • Financing could fall through
  • It could get a thumbs down from the government (the EU might even chime in)
  • AMR could up the ante and make a bid

There are lots of things that could happen, right? There must be hundreds more things that could go wrong. This thing might just go away; couldn't it?
It's subject to government approval... which Obama has said they'll get. So unless he needs to distract people from his affair with Vera Baker, this deal is as done as it gets.
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:20 pm
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Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
They tell me there are five steps in the grieving process: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. I'm sure as the days go on, we'll see examples of all of them. I'll let you know when I hit denial.

But on a more serious note, something could go wrong with the merger; it mightn't happen:

  • Shareholders could vote it down
  • Financing could fall through
  • It could get a thumbs down from the government (the EU might even chime in)
  • AMR could up the ante and make a bid

There are lots of things that could happen, right? There must be hundreds more things that could go wrong. This thing might just go away; couldn't it?
  • UA will have to bring back its 737s from the desert....
  • UA will have to start retraining pilots on 737s.....
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:26 pm
  #5  
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Things That Could Go Wrong [After] the Merger

Smisek moves to the Windy City, spends $300k to refurbish his lavish corporate suite, including a 100-ft long table made from a single piece of endangered African mahogany.

The next step he announces a series of product enhancements:

1. In order to reduce overcrowding on UA planes, E+ will be ended. With 12-30 more seats on each plane your likelihood of getting a middle seat is lowered.

2. In order to reduce the capital costs of acquiring new planes, all current CO orders are cancelled and all CO 739 routes are replaced with the oldest UA 752's.

3. In order to harmonize the product, all UA international F is eliminated and replaced with UA's "new" BF...marketing comes up with a catchy slogan to make it all seem good....BF...it stands for "Better than First. You and BF...BFF"

4. UA's elites find their SWU's are reduced from 6 to 4 and eventually eliminated all together.

5. All CO AVOD and DTV is removed in order to "harmonize" the product and is replaced with UA's 80's style IFE. "I don't know about you, but I'm so nostalgic about the simplicity of those bygone days," Smisek tells reporters before disappearing in his privte Gulfstream G5

6. All free booze is eliminated from PC's and the only food left in RCC's is a measly assortment of crackers and packaged cheese.

7. After numerous focus groups, a decision is made to bring back the infamous "stink shield" row not only on certain 737's but on every plane in the fleet.

8. All UA 744's are retired and replaced with the new ETOPS ERJ-145SER (Super Extended Range). "Smaller planes will mean far more frequency to some of our most popular destinations such as SYD and PVG."

9. CO We Care is put in charge of the combined carrier's new "Customer Experience" department

10. All domestic customer service representatives are let go and replaced by an ICC in Bangalore.

11. At tremendous cost, every Y seat on the entire UA fleet is replaced by CO's infamous "seat of death." "That coach seat is a huge part of our corporate signature, we didn't want our customers flying on the former UA planes to miss out," Smisek tells reporters while basking in the Jacuzzi in his private Guilfstream G5.
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:27 pm
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[QUOTE=ContinentalFan;13885067]

But on a more serious note, something could go wrong with the merger; it mightn't happen:

  • Financing could fall through

QUOTE]

It's an all stock deal. What's the financing issue?
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:36 pm
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Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
  • Shareholders could vote it down
  • Financing could fall through
  • It could get a thumbs down from the government (the EU might even chime in)
  • AMR could up the ante and make a bid

There are lots of things that could happen, right? There must be hundreds more things that could go wrong. This thing might just go away; couldn't it?
*All the shareholders that matter will approve the deal.

*No need for financing in an all stock transaction.

*No reason for DOT/DOJ to object to a degree that would thwart the deal.

*AMR is in no position to make a viable counteroffer.

Accept now that it's over and Big Mama is singing... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIVfbylUU-M
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Old May 2, 2010, 5:52 pm
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Sounds to me you have 4 more steps to get thru
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:06 pm
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Originally Posted by Weatherboy
It's subject to government approval... which Obama has said they'll get. So unless he needs to distract people from his affair with Vera Baker, this deal is as done as it gets.
Unless I missed something, I have not seen Obama endorse this deal. In fact, it would be out of bounds to do so. I have seen attorneys speculating that the deal will go ahead, but that's it. Since this administration is just a teeny bit less friendly to big business than the one that approved DL/NW, there will be a price to pay. Not to mention that airlines are not that popular, so look for someone in Congress whose poll ratings are way down to try turn CO/UA into the next Goldman Sachs.
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:14 pm
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I can't stand Sheila Jackson Lee....But I am with her on this one.
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:40 pm
  #11  
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Originally Posted by gawhite411
It's an all stock deal. What's the financing issue?
Please share the details! : I haven't seen them published yet.
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:41 pm
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Chicken or Beef
Sounds to me you have 4 more steps to get thru
Exactly, because denial is just one of those made up words!
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:44 pm
  #13  
 
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Unfortunately Ms. Lee's mentors up in Chicago have had an inside head start for a couple years and handed UA $35 million+ to get them to move headquarters and their ops control center into the Sears Tower.

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?sec...cal&id=7139681

And adding 'jobs' in Chicago with this merger is probably right in the bulkhead row on the list of ways to grease this deal through the DC extension of the Chicago mayors office.

Will miss the no-nonsense Texas approach to middle management there.
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Old May 2, 2010, 6:50 pm
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Well, I think the merger will likely go through. However, the after closing, the merger could go wrong (most large mergers of this caliber DO go wrong). So unless there is an excellent merger transition team and a top notch team to implement all the necessary changes, things will go wrong.
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Old May 2, 2010, 7:13 pm
  #15  
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Originally Posted by ContinentalFan
Please share the details! : I haven't seen them published yet.
Each holder of a CO share is entitle to 1.05 UA shares. Means historic UA shareholders end up owning 55% of UA; historica CO shareholders end up with the other 45%. No cash is involved. Hence no financing issue.
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