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CO may be losing its way. Is it Jeff or what's up?

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CO may be losing its way. Is it Jeff or what's up?

 
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 3:30 pm
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
A few thoughts:

1. This is the classic "the airline business is a pure commodity" model. Please note that this line of reasoning has been prevalent in the airline business long before the introduction of the internet.
That's because it is true. I never said the internet created this commodity mentality, it only exacerbated it. Airline deregulation created the commodity model.

This isn't really up for debate. An airline seat is an airline seat, all other things being equal. Customer loyalty b/c of FFP programs and in flight entertainment are intangibles. Since the airlines have no way of differentiating their passengers at the time of booking request (all people have the same access to the same seat and fare at the same time), by definition they're just buying a seat. If the passenger factors in that they might get an upgrade, that might influence the decision process of the passenger, but the airline is still offering you the same fare as John Q Public. They can't/don't charge you more for the same seat because of your loyalty, and they can't take the risk of charging higher fares and losing that business to the competitor.

Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
There is, of course, a segment of the flying public that flies solely on the basis of the cheapest price.
Yeah, about 80% of their business.

Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
But it's not that simple. When numerous CO flights board with about half or more of the flight comprised of elites, this is a signifacant group that is not purchasing airline travel purely on a commodity basis.
This clearly demonstrates that is exactly what they're doing. It doesn't matter what amenities you provide if the competition is providing virtually the same service. If the plane only have 8 F class seats (like most of the ORD-EWR flights), do you think any of those FFP's have any expectation that they're going to get an upgrade or a exit row seat or a bulkhead when they're repeatedly stuck in the middle seat down the back? Something is bringing them back to CO, and we know it wasn't the pressed ham sandwich.

Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
2. The Internet: The internet has made it far easier to instantly find the lowest fare. But let's be careful. Just as the internet has made it easier for people to find the lowest fare, it will also inform them of the unbundled, hidden costs. Consumer behavior may not have completely caught up with the unbundled services, but it will soon
Current and historical anecdotes prove otherwise. Ryanair is the perfect example.

Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
3. The growth of LCC's. The funny thing about the most noteworthy of the so-called LCC's that have sprung up in the United States in the internet age is that they have not only provided but heavily marketed themselves as a premium product. So the irony today is if you want a quality airline product in Y (and even in one case FC) you have to fly an LCC such as B6 or VX. I fly B6 on a very frequent basis and often canvas my seat mates. In virtually every case they tell me they choose B6 because of the comfort and friendly service, even if it costs a little more.
TV's in seats (which is really the only product differentiator), is a marginal cost that entices people to chose airline A over B. And jetBlue and Virgin's customer base at this stage is highly discretionary.

Plus all you IROPs complainers, try getting rerouted when you're stuck in FLL on B6 and even WN. You are SOL.

Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
4. So CO used to have a very cramped, uncomfortable Y cabin but with a reasonable likelihood of being upgraded as an elite. Now, that is becoming rarer and rarer and what is the flying public left, not just a commodity, but in many respects, something worse than the competition, less comfort, fewer free services than much of the competition.

The process of self-commoditization is not a pretty one at all.
Doesn't matter. CO is still running 80% LFs. The airlines must maximize the revenue per available floor space to make money. Ever flown EK in the back. Now that's misery.

But don't complain about 31' pitch and then buy another ticket on them. Go somewhere else. You've clearly moved on to B6. Good for you. So why are you still complaining about CO?
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 3:50 pm
  #77  
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Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
A few thoughts:

1. This is the classic "the airline business is a pure commodity" model. Please note that this line of reasoning has been prevalent in the airline business long before the introduction of the internet.
I've seen no evidence that this model is not the correct one, at least for a carrier the size of CO.
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 4:24 pm
  #78  
 
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Plus all you IROPs complainers, try getting rerouted when you're stuck in FLL on B6 and even WN. You are SOL.
You know, I've only flown CO once recently (and my flight was cancelled), and I can't say I felt like I would have been treated worse on B6 or WN. I have no status, but I was treated the same as my Platinum friend who was on the same cancelled flight.
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 4:57 pm
  #79  
 
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Originally Posted by KD5MDK
You know, I've only flown CO once recently (and my flight was cancelled), and I can't say I felt like I would have been treated worse on B6 or WN. I have no status, but I was treated the same as my Platinum friend who was on the same cancelled flight.
On B6, VX and WN, you can not be re-routed onto other carriers as these airlines do not have interline agreements with any airlines to transport their customers.
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 5:13 pm
  #80  
 
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Right. But CO didn't offer that to us either. Or really much of anything.
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 5:47 pm
  #81  
 
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Originally Posted by KD5MDK
You know, I've only flown CO once recently (and my flight was cancelled), and I can't say I felt like I would have been treated worse on B6 or WN. I have no status, but I was treated the same as my Platinum friend who was on the same cancelled flight.
Knock on wood, but I've only had a flight cancelled once due to IROPS. MCO-EWR, on CO, flying as a Plat. I was due to fly Friday PM. CO automatically rebooked me on the first flight Saturday AM and EUA'd me to F. When I arrived Saturday morning, the airport was a zoo with people stranded and trying to rebook. I can assure you: if you and I were there together, CO was treating me much better than you if you didn't have status.
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Old Mar 19, 2010, 9:10 pm
  #82  
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Originally Posted by airzim
That's because it is true. I never said the internet created this commodity mentality, it only exacerbated it. Airline deregulation created the commodity model.

This isn't really up for debate. An airline seat is an airline seat, all other things being equal. Customer loyalty b/c of FFP programs and in flight entertainment are intangibles. Since the airlines have no way of differentiating their passengers at the time of booking request (all people have the same access to the same seat and fare at the same time), by definition they're just buying a seat. If the passenger factors in that they might get an upgrade, that might influence the decision process of the passenger, but the airline is still offering you the same fare as John Q Public. They can't/don't charge you more for the same seat because of your loyalty, and they can't take the risk of charging higher fares and losing that business to the competitor.



Yeah, about 80% of their business.



This clearly demonstrates that is exactly what they're doing. It doesn't matter what amenities you provide if the competition is providing virtually the same service. If the plane only have 8 F class seats (like most of the ORD-EWR flights), do you think any of those FFP's have any expectation that they're going to get an upgrade or a exit row seat or a bulkhead when they're repeatedly stuck in the middle seat down the back? Something is bringing them back to CO, and we know it wasn't the pressed ham sandwich.



Current and historical anecdotes prove otherwise. Ryanair is the perfect example.



TV's in seats (which is really the only product differentiator), is a marginal cost that entices people to chose airline A over B. And jetBlue and Virgin's customer base at this stage is highly discretionary.

Plus all you IROPs complainers, try getting rerouted when you're stuck in FLL on B6 and even WN. You are SOL.



Doesn't matter. CO is still running 80% LFs. The airlines must maximize the revenue per available floor space to make money. Ever flown EK in the back. Now that's misery.

But don't complain about 31' pitch and then buy another ticket on them. Go somewhere else. You've clearly moved on to B6. Good for you. So why are you still complaining about CO?
I'm not complaining about CO. I still fly them (4 flight segments this month alone).

However, if I look at what I am getting on CO vs. B6, VX or even WN, I can honestly say there is significantly less value in Y.

And it's not just seat pitch. It's a more comfortable seat, free IFE, at least one free checked bag.

CO always had a pretty poor hard product in Y. Now that they've devastated what remains of their excellent soft product they are proving their own point.

They are in the process of self-commoditizing themselves, of morphing into another version of US.

Yes, they are running 80% LF's, but they're still not making a profit, and their financial performance is lagging far behind that of B6 and WN (both carrier, by the way, have lower LF's).

I'm not sure if many people fly WN for the quality product, but I know that many seek out both B6 and VX for a far most pleasant journey in Y.

Removing all the remaining amenities and unbundling the product are designed to reduce cost and generate incremental revenue. But the fact is that most passengers will now be faced with one of the most spartan experiences in airline travel today.

For those who select airline travel purely on a commodity basis, by definition the lowest-yield customer, this model will fit perfectly. But for those who want just a little more legroom, or to watch TV for free, or check a free bag, they can just easily migrate to B6 or WN.

The point is that CO should at least provide a Y product that is somewhat competitive with the LCC's.

If not, it will be an inevitable race to the bottom of the barrel.
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 12:02 am
  #83  
 
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Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
Yes, they are running 80% LF's, but they're still not making a profit, and their financial performance is lagging far behind that of B6 and WN (both carrier, by the way, have lower LF's).
I expect this to change in the long run. Both B6 and WN have benefits of being much younger airlines (less burdensome cost structure due to being for most of its life in the expansionary stage of the lifecycle) and especially in the case of WN, the extra-profitable fuel hedges that should be going away soon.
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 4:57 am
  #84  
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Originally Posted by CJ1120
I expect this to change in the long run. Both B6 and WN have benefits of being much younger airlines (less burdensome cost structure due to being for most of its life in the expansionary stage of the lifecycle) and especially in the case of WN, the extra-profitable fuel hedges that should be going away soon.
In the case of B6 there might be a point about the youth of the carrier although I would suggest that the cost strudture is systemic, not based on the age of the carrier.

As far as WN, this is at least as much of a legacy carrier as the modern iteation of CAL. Let's not forget that CAL wiped away most of its legacy obligations under Frank Lorenzo, that a part of the airline started out as the LCC PeoplExpress, and that it went though bankruptcy twice, which further wiped away a significant portion of its legacy obligations.

Today, WN has the highest-paid pilots in the industry, among the highest yields. As far as the fuel hedges, this is an approach to purchasing fuel that is available to anyone, not just WN.

Their hedges have not always paid off either, but the long-term profitability of WN is not dependent on the hedges.
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 9:44 am
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by TWA Fan 1
As far as the fuel hedges, this is an approach to purchasing fuel that is available to anyone, not just WN.
Yes and no. While any airline could in theory hedge any amount they wanted, most of the legacies have capital limitations in this area. Hedging requires a fairly significant cash outlay. No one else is really in the financial position that Southwest is in to be able to afford hedging such a large position of their fuel needs.
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 11:33 am
  #86  
 
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Originally Posted by Mr.Nuke
Yes and no. While any airline could in theory hedge any amount they wanted, most of the legacies have capital limitations in this area. Hedging requires a fairly significant cash outlay. No one else is really in the financial position that Southwest is in to be able to afford hedging such a large position of their fuel needs.
If I am mistaken please forgive me, but didn't WN LOSE a ton of money on its hedging scheme? I thought I'd read something along those lines as oil came down from the stratosphere prices they were at.

Last edited by transportbiz; Mar 20, 2010 at 12:20 pm
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 11:42 am
  #87  
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Originally Posted by transportbiz
If I am mistaken please forgive me, but didn't WN LOSE a ton of money on it's hedging scheme? I thought I'd read something along those lines has oil came down from the stratosphere prices they were at.
Yes, they did in the past couple years. Prior to that, however, they were enormously hedged and made huge profits from that position.
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Old Mar 20, 2010, 3:44 pm
  #88  
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Originally Posted by sbm12
Yes, they did in the past couple years. Prior to that, however, they were enormously hedged and made huge profits from that position.
They were also one of the few domestic US airlines with enough cash to pull it off when it was profitable.
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