sbm12

I highly doubt that there are going to be mass defections one direction or another. On routes were customers are connecting anyways there will be some changes potentially should one carrier offer mainline and the other regional or where the timing works better on one versus another. For the folks flying non-stops today it is highly unlikely that there will be significant volumes of traffic switching to a connection on the other carrier. And the number of places where both offer non-stops is pretty low.

If folks wanted the experience of flying on the other carrier because they liked it so much better they'd already be doing it.

J.Edward

Agreed, but I also think when traditional CO customers who have not branched out step on a UA flight and see another operation, they'll start to ask why CO can't match.

Not saying the grass is greener on the other side, just that if a silver has a noticeably better Y experience on UA, they'll wonder why CO can't deliver the same.

As others have said I think the CO forum's a good example of this: you had the traditional "UA's horrible/bad service/etc. and CO's rah-rah" but once people have a chance to branch out they're finding (and posting back here) that UA's really not that bad...and CO's not all it's cracked up to be. I suspect you'll see a similar trend among the general elite membership.

Will that be enough to change customer behavior? Don't know -- people want schedule and price, but I do think CO customers will notice the positive aspects of UA and be pleasantly surprised by them.

cova

I for one will be looking more at UA and US - because of where I am based - US big at DCA and UA big at IAD. I am waiting for the reciprocal benefits before I start - mostly because of E+ and more nonstops.

If I book early I can usually get an exit row on CO and on 738/9 - that is as good as E+. But if I continue to see upgrade decline - nonstops in E+ will be of more interest.

My plans starting mid year:

1. Continue on CO for connections through IAH to west coast and test the upgrade rate. I would have to go to IAD to get a UA nonstop and getting to IAD is a hassle, but in some cases may be worth it.

2. International will shift to UA out of IAD. No upgrade on CO, and EWR is just getting to be too much of a problem and CO has cut back on flights from DCA-EWR (no longer a 1pm flight- which I viewed as safer than the 3pm for international connections). The EWR hassles outweigh the trip to IAD and the nonstop and E+ are a biggie.

3. DCA-NYC - mostly have shifted to train - but if I fly - likely US shuttle.

4. Mid range USA trips - where US flies nonstop. Will now consider US nonstops out of DCA to places like FLL, MSY, PHX, LAS.

5. DCA-ORD - shift to UA out of DCA from CO DCA-CLE-ORD.

I do not see much benefit in UA reciprocal upgrades as a CO Plat since a CO Plat is below a UA Exec Premier (UA mid tier) - so I would not expect much in the way of ups on UA. That is why I will likely stick with CO for DCA-IAH-WestCoast - unless as indicated CO upgrades fall below 60%.

I will not achieve the $30K for PPlat, and will need to push it for 100K SWU. Plus no incentive for me to earn the 2MM mark on CO (at 1.5 MM now) with Infinite Plat. 4MM will not be achieveable.

J.Edward

Have you considered doing 50k on UA to hit 1P (or just biting the bullet and going for 1K?)

channa

We don't know this.

For years, CO has used 50% EQM (a stick) to provent its customers from flying so-called "partner" carriers.

Today that stick is gone, and soon there will be upgrade reciprocity with a partner, not to mention E+ on top of it.

CO is bearing the bigger risk in this arrangement. While we don't know what the numbers will be, I think the chance that the number of CO Elites will start flying UA and enjoy E+, RJs with F, E+/UDU to Hawaii, or whatever will be higher than the number of UA Elites who start flying CO and enjoying sacrificing legroom for a turkey dog and in-seat power.

cova

No - but I have considered possible match with AA or DL. I sort of miss Skyteam and NW reciprocal upgrades. More DL flights out of DCA than UA or AA.

sbm12

The 50% EQM thing was relatively recent and only affected the cheapest fares on NW and DL (where there were no upgrades, either). Plenty of CO folks continued to fly on those carriers where the schedule and routing made sense, even with the 50% issue. Folks focused on only flying cheap - not the most profitable customers for CO nor the ones they are particularly worried about, even if you do fly 20 r/t a year - might have not booked away from CO but the number of folks flying on DL/NW as partners were still pretty significant. Just like the 50% EQM penalty for corporate bookings, it affected a few vocal people here on FlyerTalk but CO still had plenty of elites throughout that period so it doesn't seem to me that the 50% issue actually trimmed the numbers at any point. Sure, people liked to come here and kvetch about it, but they managed to be elite anyways one way or another.

For the people where it was really a problem they simply changed programs. After all, that's generally the smart way to behave when faced with a loyalty system that doesn't actually provide value to you as a customer. Anyone not smart enough to realize and act on that deserves what they get, IMO.

channa

50% EQM was announced in 2003 and implemented in 2004, so I wouldn't classify it as recent. Also, the low fares on NW were indeed eligible for upgrades (and NW often delivered). I'm not sure if DL was even a partner back then, they may have been.

Also, I think the assumption that a customer flies only on L fares or only on Y/B/M fares is a bit off. I think a lot of people fly on a mix of fares based on their work and personal needs.

I know that when on cheapies, I was encouraged to stay on CO metal, booked at co.com to get my 100% EQM. But on higher fares, I actually booked away from CO because of poor upgrade delivery since I got 100% EQM anyway. So if I were buying a $200 ticket, CO would usually get that business because I wanted the EQM. But if I were buying an $800 ticket, why should I pay $800 for a ticket and ride CO in Y when I could pay the same money to NW and likely ride in F? I did that a number of times, and NW always came through with upgrade delivery. The only time I would pick NW on cheapies was when the company I was with decided to go with a corp agency -- again, if I'm getting 50% anyway, why book CO when NW will take better care of me? Either that, or when I was already requalified for Plat (or within striking distance).

As for the corp. types, we saw that CO was indeed pressured by their loss of business, as towards the end of the 50% EQM years, they started making one-off arrangements with agencies to still get 100% EQM. If they really were in such a position to toss that business, they wouldn't have given in on their policy just to win some corp. accounts.

Anyhow, the point being that there's no longer such incentive to fly CO (or no dis-incentive not to). And if COers start realizing this and that someone else will take equal or better care of them, therein lies the risk to CO.


I think they lost a lot of customers from this policy. Many of those who used to be "CO Plat flying NW" had to regroup and move over properly. However, CO has now opened the door to the new generation of these types, but this time it could be "CO Plat flying UA."

Renard

Well I don't know about this... if they are, it is poorly trained CO agents giving away the store or folks scoring good seats at check-in. I would be surprised this is widespread. I know that this 1K was in a CO middle seat in the very back of the bus last week (as I wasn't able to select a seat at purchase as the very back was already full and no "premium" seating option for me) and was lucky to score a aisle on the return....the middle seat in the back gave me a whole new appreciation for UA Y. I can't ever remember being in a middle on UA... it just seems to happen on CO.