Lifting Zero Covid Policy
Dec 22, 2022, 9:56 pm
#16
Join Date: Aug 2021
Programs: UA 1MM
Posts: 349
After the smoke's cleared, I'll guess that the excess deaths in China will be approximately equal to that of the US, which means on a per person basis China will have had 1/3 to 1/4 the Covid death rate as the US due to all of China's cases being Omicron, vs the US having a much larger share of wild-type and Delta cases, which had a higher CFR.
Dec 22, 2022, 10:07 pm
#17
Join Date: Jan 2020
Programs: Marriott Platinum (Lifetime Gold), Caesars Diamond
Posts: 1,404
Oh yeah I trust the China GDP numbers too. Common Prosperity for everyone!!!
Dec 24, 2022, 12:43 am
#18
Join Date: Nov 2006
Programs: Marriott Platinum, Hilton Diamond, IHG Platinum
Posts: 3,727
I'm reading about the abrupt reversal in disbelief. I cannot imagine a worse way they could have managed this. After painstakingly but consistently enforcing zero-covid, resulting in probably the world's lowest death rate among sizable populations, to just abruptly and entirely give up without preparing the system for the entirely foreseeable tsunami, now causing the very endpoint they said all along all the draconian measures were to avoid--high death rate among the elderly--I just can't wrap my head around it. I'm really curious how the locals are processing this sudden U-turn of the unwavering mandate.
Never thought a few mild protests would have such power.
Never thought a few mild protests would have such power.
Dec 24, 2022, 2:06 am
#19
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.9MM
Posts: 6,362
I'm reading about the abrupt reversal in disbelief. I cannot imagine a worse way they could have managed this. After painstakingly but consistently enforcing zero-covid, resulting in probably the world's lowest death rate among sizable populations, to just abruptly and entirely give up without preparing the system for the entirely foreseeable tsunami, now causing the very endpoint they said all along all the draconian measures were to avoid--high death rate among the elderly--I just can't wrap my head around it. I'm really curious how the locals are processing this sudden U-turn of the unwavering mandate.
Never thought a few mild protests would have such power.
Never thought a few mild protests would have such power.
Simply put, COVID-19 got milder and milder, but more contagious as time went on.
Many in China are saying they waited too long for this 'reversal', and they should have done it back in late Spring/early Summer 2022.
There is no mass-collapse of the health system either (so far?), presumably because the vaccinations that did occur, and the relatively mild BF.7 and BF.5 strains that are predominant.
Also, I don't believe the "mild protests" had much of anything to do with the opening up / moving away from Covid Zero.
The writing was already on the wall, and announcements were already made before the demonstrations started.
Dec 24, 2022, 12:50 pm
#20
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 101
Couple of suppositions going on there, IMO.
Simply put, COVID-19 got milder and milder, but more contagious as time went on.
Many in China are saying they waited too long for this 'reversal', and they should have done it back in late Spring/early Summer 2022.
There is no mass-collapse of the health system either (so far?), presumably because the vaccinations that did occur, and the relatively mild BF.7 and BF.5 strains that are predominant.
Also, I don't believe the "mild protests" had much of anything to do with the opening up / moving away from Covid Zero.
The writing was already on the wall, and announcements were already made before the demonstrations started.
Simply put, COVID-19 got milder and milder, but more contagious as time went on.
Many in China are saying they waited too long for this 'reversal', and they should have done it back in late Spring/early Summer 2022.
There is no mass-collapse of the health system either (so far?), presumably because the vaccinations that did occur, and the relatively mild BF.7 and BF.5 strains that are predominant.
Also, I don't believe the "mild protests" had much of anything to do with the opening up / moving away from Covid Zero.
The writing was already on the wall, and announcements were already made before the demonstrations started.
Dec 24, 2022, 7:46 pm
#21
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,417
Couple of suppositions going on there, IMO.
Simply put, COVID-19 got milder and milder, but more contagious as time went on.
Many in China are saying they waited too long for this 'reversal', and they should have done it back in late Spring/early Summer 2022.
There is no mass-collapse of the health system either (so far?), presumably because the vaccinations that did occur, and the relatively mild BF.7 and BF.5 strains that are predominant.
Also, I don't believe the "mild protests" had much of anything to do with the opening up / moving away from Covid Zero.
The writing was already on the wall, and announcements were already made before the demonstrations started.
Simply put, COVID-19 got milder and milder, but more contagious as time went on.
Many in China are saying they waited too long for this 'reversal', and they should have done it back in late Spring/early Summer 2022.
There is no mass-collapse of the health system either (so far?), presumably because the vaccinations that did occur, and the relatively mild BF.7 and BF.5 strains that are predominant.
Also, I don't believe the "mild protests" had much of anything to do with the opening up / moving away from Covid Zero.
The writing was already on the wall, and announcements were already made before the demonstrations started.
Dec 25, 2022, 3:12 am
#22
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: HKG
Posts: 1,317
They could and did stop BA.2 in Shanghai. However, what they couldn't handle was the 14+7 quarantine. The day they went with 7+3 was when the big call was made.
Dec 25, 2022, 7:30 pm
#23
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 38,417
Dec 25, 2022, 10:39 pm
#24
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: HKG
Posts: 1,317
Look in the GISAID database, if they didn't stop the BA.2.2 Shanghai outbreak, then we would still be seeing new entries of that strain today. Even if China wasn't reporting it, it would be picked up on export to places like the UK. In actual fact no BA.2.2 sequences have been reported since June.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-022-00468-1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-022-00468-1
Last edited by tauphi; Dec 25, 2022 at 10:51 pm
Dec 26, 2022, 5:58 am
#25
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,098
SCMP has just reported that China will re-open its borders January 8.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tine-january-8
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...tine-january-8
Dec 26, 2022, 5:16 pm
#26
Join Date: Nov 2006
Programs: Marriott Platinum, Hilton Diamond, IHG Platinum
Posts: 3,727
It seems they realized this half a year and countless lockdowns after everyone else. And from some of the things that were said, I wasn't sure if they'd ever realize/accept it. But I'm glad they did.
Yes, the problem is the sudden reversal (at least it seems sudden to me; I accept it may be less sudden to someone on the ground). The transition should have been more gradual, including not backing themselves into a corner with no way out. According to one article, as recent as 1-2 weeks before the sudden reversal, Papa Bear was quoted saying zero-covid is an unwavering commitment.
It's just sad to see them go thru the same pain of opening up that everyone else went thru, but I guess that's inevitable, and the problem is needlessly waiting so long to do it.
... the only real choices were open slowly or open rapidly.
It's just sad to see them go thru the same pain of opening up that everyone else went thru, but I guess that's inevitable, and the problem is needlessly waiting so long to do it.
Dec 26, 2022, 8:51 pm
#27
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 101
It seems they realized this half a year and countless lockdowns after everyone else. And from some of the things that were said, I wasn't sure if they'd ever realize/accept it. But I'm glad they did.
Yes, the problem is the sudden reversal (at least it seems sudden to me; I accept it may be less sudden to someone on the ground). The transition should have been more gradual, including not backing themselves into a corner with no way out. According to one article, as recent as 1-2 weeks before the sudden reversal, Papa Bear was quoted saying zero-covid is an unwavering commitment.
It's just sad to see them go thru the same pain of opening up that everyone else went thru, but I guess that's inevitable, and the problem is needlessly waiting so long to do it.
Yes, the problem is the sudden reversal (at least it seems sudden to me; I accept it may be less sudden to someone on the ground). The transition should have been more gradual, including not backing themselves into a corner with no way out. According to one article, as recent as 1-2 weeks before the sudden reversal, Papa Bear was quoted saying zero-covid is an unwavering commitment.
It's just sad to see them go thru the same pain of opening up that everyone else went thru, but I guess that's inevitable, and the problem is needlessly waiting so long to do it.
The final release was rapid, but I'm not sure how they could have effectively ramped this. Given the high population density, the case counts would have exploded regardless. And the "nice" part of the current trends is that I think by Janurary, the country will be over the worst of this and people can get on to their normal lives.
Dec 27, 2022, 4:59 am
#30
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Manchester, United Kingdom
Programs: Hilton Gold, Priority Club Blue, SPG Gold, Sofitel Gold, FB Ivory, BA Blue
Posts: 8,479
Any clues to what the reopening will entail? Will we ever see the return of the transfer waiver of visa? I’m looking at Tokyo, May, but it would be nice to do Shanghai either side (not to mention a swift half of King Louis with a friend).