Haven't figures decreased since the new ten relaxations started?

Also aren't residents supposed to self report if RAT test positive? In order to get sick leave or to comply with neighbourhood committee regulations.

Sooner or later the death toll should come out. If it doesn't, I call scam.

Scam how?
If the death toll does rise, the numbers can easily be 'manipulated'. Unlike what the 'West' did, where every death was due to Covid-19 if the deceased happened to have Covid-19 at the time of expiry, my guess is here it will be the exact opposite: the official cause of death will be anything other than Covid-19. Mostly.

What about HK?

I don't know of a single person who has ever self-reported a RAT positive. When that happens, de facto SOP is to lay low until you get a negative...then, get a PCR to reset your health code.

narvik Do you know of ANY country/city that reports cases based on extrapolation (instead of confirmed positives only)?

There are valid reasons to do so here in HK

1) you need time off work-sick leave/work from home permission

2) you are planning to travel after recovery and need an alibi to explain why PCR positive on return (residual virus material) (the recovery cert serves as a get out of PCR card for three months).

Of course there are people who don’t need either and prefer to lay low as you say, they’re in breach of the law here but if they don’t plan to be in a situation where they might be caught eg presenting oneself as an inbound traveller

Standard OP here in Beijing right now is: if you test positive through RAT, you stay at home until turning negative again, like you wrote. Hardly anyone (outside of medical workers, etc.) is doing any PCR test any longer, as it's barely needed anymore.
Even hospitals will admit with a RAT.
There is no place even, where a positive RAT is (or could be) recorded, AFAIK. Many are reporting, when they do call a positive RAT test in, they are told to simply stay home, and isolate, and only leave again, once negative. A PCR is not demanded anymore.

I am only trying to convey that the cases of people positive with Covid-19 here in Beijing (either current or past) is astronomical. In the millions by now, is my best guess.

Apologies for the slow reply - I spiked a 39.5C fever on Saturday night and am still limiting my time at the computer while I rest.

I think though that you may have missed my point - which is that the scale of the difference in numbers between those "reported" and in real-life is too big to just get by as calling "under-reporting". And also that phrase actually suggests the authorities know the true figure and are hiding it, when it is clear on the ground here in Beijing that they do not.

I am one of the very few foreigners in my compound, which is basically off-campus housing for a university in Beijing. After talking with my wife on Sunday morning we figured we should call the local committee to let them know I had a high fever. Their response was basically "Er okay. Join the club - stay at home and drink plenty of fluids". That was it. They didn't want to know.

Re: employees I can only speak for the company my wife works for (an investment law company) - everyone is working at home anyway, and certainly no-one needs to produce a RAT result (even they are able to get one*) in order to offload some casework for a few days.

*My wife works as a lawyer for several pharmaceutical companies, and reading between the lines at the start of last week she already reached out to a few of them to try and get some, but even with her contacts still no dice.

I can understand how unbelievable this sounds - I can also hardly believe how much things have changed in just a few days here in Beijing. What is clear is that there has been also a no-so-subtle shift in the messaging to something along the lines of (I can't recall the exact Chinese phrase) "Everyone is the first person responsible for their health", which is the first step of washing their hands from the fatalities among the elderly non-fully-vaccinated when they come.

In terms of numbers based on anecdotal evidence it does seem like this has already affected 10% of the population - though I do find that hard to believe, as with a typical doubling time of 3 days for omicron, and a peak burnout at around 60% of the local population (based on previous waves outside China), that would put the peak here in less than 2 weeks. Who knows though?

Hope you get better soon GinFizz!
每个人是自己健康第一责任人

China is an expert at shooting itself in the foot.
Anyways I’m happy to share in your prediction for early 2023 and will be a visa applying guinea pig.

Following up on my post from a month ago, I predict existing 10-year visas will be reactivated within 60 days. Perhaps within 30 days if the Jan. 9 rumors turn out to be true.

So glad I never tried to get a pandemic visa (which would have canceled my 10-year visa).

I am not too sure about that one. Not saying it's impossible, but I reckon they could just draw the line and say: "everyone re-apply again". At least for tourist visas.
Residence Permits are quite a bit more involved to obtain, so it wouldn't be too far fetched that they would make a distinction between those and tourist visas.

You're a bit too optimistic IMHO. Border will be easier to cross but they won't open up to tourists so soon. Biz visas will be prioritized and 10 year visas will need to be reapplied for is my guess. I put tourist visas being easily granted as a June/July thing. I don't think they want a bunch of random tourists roaming around as COVID rips through their population this winter.

It's already bad.

Given the high R0 I think it will burn through pretty fast and the healthcare system is going to be swamped worse than Wuhan.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...re-2022-12-12/

Yeah, the word is that China will go down to 2+3 soon, then 0+3 in early January 2023.
Hong Kong just relaxed restrictions too, and is supposedly doing 0+0 from tomorrow (with proof of a negative test).

Both Japan and South Korea have reactivated their suspended visas. China simply copied their suspensions at the start.