TSA SPOT program: TSA agents observing behavior and collecting passenger data.
Jun 5, 2013 | 10:17 pm
#286
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The managers wanted to generate arrests so they could justify the program, the officers said, adding that officers who made arrests were more likely to be promoted.
Or is that just chalked up to bad reporting?
Jun 5, 2013 | 10:53 pm
#287
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From about this post in this thread from 2009:
The BDO positive predictive power of less than 1% for druggies and identity thieves (or 0/160000 for terrorists worth the name) might compare favorably with homeopathy, but in industrial quality control situations where defect rates of 1-in-a-million or 1-in-a-billion are common, achieveable goals, TSA BDO error rates are poor.
Originally Posted by USA Today
A TSA program launched in early 2006 that looks for terrorists using a controversial surveillance method has led to more than 160,000 people in airports receiving scrutiny, such as a pat-down search or a brief interview. That has resulted in 1,266 arrests, often on charges of carrying drugs or fake IDs, the TSA said.
) summarised the statistics for the masses:I'll 'splain. Is no time, I'll sum up:
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.
But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
Jun 5, 2013 | 11:03 pm
#288
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With apologies, RadioGirl, I'm going to pull one line out of your quote:
IOW, the AFS crowd think they're getting 'Israeli-style' security for cheap, 'cause everyone knows the Israelis have the strictest airport security in the world, and they do it by asking lots of questions and observing people closely.
(Never mind that Israeli security experts have looked at TSA's El Cheap-o quickie version of their security protocol and said it doesn't work - hey, what do they know, anyway? They just don't recognize American exceptionalism).
When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."
(Never mind that Israeli security experts have looked at TSA's El Cheap-o quickie version of their security protocol and said it doesn't work - hey, what do they know, anyway? They just don't recognize American exceptionalism).
Jun 5, 2013 | 11:33 pm
#289
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With apologies, RadioGirl, I'm going to pull one line out of your quote:
IOW, the AFS crowd think they're getting 'Israeli-style' security for cheap, 'cause everyone knows the Israelis have the strictest airport security in the world, and they do it by asking lots of questions and observing people closely.
(Never mind that Israeli security experts have looked at TSA's El Cheap-o quickie version of their security protocol and said it doesn't work - hey, what do they know, anyway? They just don't recognize American exceptionalism).
IOW, the AFS crowd think they're getting 'Israeli-style' security for cheap, 'cause everyone knows the Israelis have the strictest airport security in the world, and they do it by asking lots of questions and observing people closely.
(Never mind that Israeli security experts have looked at TSA's El Cheap-o quickie version of their security protocol and said it doesn't work - hey, what do they know, anyway? They just don't recognize American exceptionalism).
Jun 6, 2013 | 5:38 pm
#290
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.
And I can turn straw into gold. It doesn't matter that centuries of conventional science say it's impossible, I've seen it happen. It's not a universally known tangible process and those that are not educated about it don't understand how it works or why.
I could tell you about it, but, ya know, it's RGSSI.
And I can turn straw into gold. It doesn't matter that centuries of conventional science say it's impossible, I've seen it happen. It's not a universally known tangible process and those that are not educated about it don't understand how it works or why.
I could tell you about it, but, ya know, it's RGSSI.
Jun 6, 2013 | 5:40 pm
#291
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Jun 6, 2013 | 5:43 pm
#292
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Originally Posted by chollie;20873943It has not 'worked' to detect someone who posed a threat to aviation security - which is what TSA is supposed to be focused on.
[B
[B
eyecue[/B], you know as well as I do that if SPOT had been responsible for detecting a single te**orist threat, we would have heard about it. Neither Nappy nor Pistole could have kept it quiet - nor would they have wanted to. They would have used it as justification for doubling down on the program.
Jun 6, 2013 | 5:46 pm
#293
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That's weird because all the actual science about it says that it doesn't really work. Even the Israeli's say that it's marginal as a field activity and that they have to have people with actual degrees in psych & CogSci and the like along with constant training to get even vaguely reasonable results. I wish it wasn't SSI so that TSA could tell us how it works so well for them with their high school grads with their ~20 hours of training.
"The shortcoming is, we don't know how many people are showing suspicious behaviors and aren't being noticed," Ekman said.
Jun 6, 2013 | 6:01 pm
#295
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Education does have something to do with it, just not necessarily in the way some would claim.
Taking as gospel the word of someone who was a hired gun of sorts for the TSA and wants more money doing more of the same for the TSA in the future? "No thanks" says the atheist/agnostic.
http://www.ekmaninternational.com/pa...assengers.aspx
Contractors for you.
How is it you can speak for the entire Israeli security force? Education has nothing to do with it. The founder says: Paul Ekman, a San Francisco psychologist who helped design the TSA program, said it can be effective. But it needs more study, he said.
"The shortcoming is, we don't know how many people are showing suspicious behaviors and aren't being noticed," Ekman said.
"The shortcoming is, we don't know how many people are showing suspicious behaviors and aren't being noticed," Ekman said.
http://www.ekmaninternational.com/pa...assengers.aspx
Contractors for you.
Last edited by GUWonder; Jun 6, 2013 at 6:07 pm
Jun 6, 2013 | 6:49 pm
#297
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I have seen it work. The problem is that it is not a universally known, tangible process and those that are not educated about it dont understand how it works or why. TSA did gather stats on it in the early years. I dont believe those were ever published. Has it been misused? Probably, just like the police abuse radar for traffic enforcement. And lets not forget to take into account the interviews might not have been answered by those employees that are most versed in PC answers.
At all.
Ever.
Even once?
Lemme guess - it's SSI and you can't discuss it.
So, during the period from September 2011 and early 2006 when the BDO program was deployed, what deterred the Bad Guys from attempting even a single hijacking or bombing anywhere in the US?
Since the rate of attempted hijackings was 0.0 prior to the BDO program, and has been 0.0 since the BDO program, I am curious to know exactly how we could objectively judge the deterrence value of the program.
I think it's pretty obvious from what I've typed so far that I believe the BDO program is so much cowflop, a completely useless boondoggle that has wasted millions of dollars a flim-flam scam that provides 0.0, zip, nada, nothing, absolute bupkis in the way of effective returns, all the while fooling people into thinking that some magical voodoo is going to protect them from The Great Brown Muslim Evil Network (R).
If course, in a country where millions believe in ghosts, alien abductions, and the magical healing power of crystals and magnets, it's not surprising that so many actually believe that some guy with a shiny badge who had 20 hours of training is Harry Potter's Divination professor.
The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches ...
Last edited by WillCAD; Jun 6, 2013 at 6:55 pm
Jun 6, 2013 | 7:31 pm
#298
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Really? Prove it. Describe actual circumstances where a BDO has detected a terrorist trying to smuggle Weapons, Explosives, or Incendiaries onto an aircraft.
At all.
Ever.
Even once?
Lemme guess - it's SSI and you can't discuss it.
"Deterrence?" I presume you're speaking of the deterrence value of the BDO program in scarring terrists away from American airplanes?
So, during the period from September 2011 and early 2006 when the BDO program was deployed, what deterred the Bad Guys from attempting even a single hijacking or bombing anywhere in the US?
Since the rate of attempted hijackings was 0.0 prior to the BDO program, and has been 0.0 since the BDO program, I am curious to know exactly how we could objectively judge the deterrence value of the program.
I think it's pretty obvious from what I've typed so far that I believe the BDO program is so much cowflop, a completely useless boondoggle that has wasted millions of dollars a flim-flam scam that provides 0.0, zip, nada, nothing, absolute bupkis in the way of effective returns, all the while fooling people into thinking that some magical voodoo is going to protect them from The Great Brown Muslim Evil Network (R).
If course, in a country where millions believe in ghosts, alien abductions, and the magical healing power of crystals and magnets, it's not surprising that so many actually believe that some guy with a shiny badge who had 20 hours of training is Harry Potter's Divination professor.
The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches ...
At all.
Ever.
Even once?
Lemme guess - it's SSI and you can't discuss it.
"Deterrence?" I presume you're speaking of the deterrence value of the BDO program in scarring terrists away from American airplanes?
So, during the period from September 2011 and early 2006 when the BDO program was deployed, what deterred the Bad Guys from attempting even a single hijacking or bombing anywhere in the US?
Since the rate of attempted hijackings was 0.0 prior to the BDO program, and has been 0.0 since the BDO program, I am curious to know exactly how we could objectively judge the deterrence value of the program.
I think it's pretty obvious from what I've typed so far that I believe the BDO program is so much cowflop, a completely useless boondoggle that has wasted millions of dollars a flim-flam scam that provides 0.0, zip, nada, nothing, absolute bupkis in the way of effective returns, all the while fooling people into thinking that some magical voodoo is going to protect them from The Great Brown Muslim Evil Network (R).
If course, in a country where millions believe in ghosts, alien abductions, and the magical healing power of crystals and magnets, it's not surprising that so many actually believe that some guy with a shiny badge who had 20 hours of training is Harry Potter's Divination professor.
The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches ...
Jun 6, 2013 | 8:29 pm
#299
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We've got to be clear on one important thing: The DHS IG never said that "SPOT is useless." The findings and recommendations never questioned the added value of SPOT. The findings and recommendation simply slapped the TSA on the wrist for not doing the paperwork or proper training.
I noticed that an additional duty of SPOtNiks is ID checking. Perhaps the interrogations we occasionally get about destination or the "friendly" greetings we get from them is really a SPOTNik at work.
The only way to get rid of SPOT is for We, The People, to demand it. We can do that by getting in the collective faces of any SPOTNik that interrogates us and by writing to the airlines to whom we used to pay many dollars stating that we will not spend a dime until they force the TSA to stop this practice of rubbing our noses in the Constitution.
The TSA spin is slick, because they justify the SPOT program by the number of druggies and illegals they apprehend. And, the AFS crowd and the media that blindly supports the TSA buys this hook, line, and sinker.
I noticed that an additional duty of SPOtNiks is ID checking. Perhaps the interrogations we occasionally get about destination or the "friendly" greetings we get from them is really a SPOTNik at work.
The only way to get rid of SPOT is for We, The People, to demand it. We can do that by getting in the collective faces of any SPOTNik that interrogates us and by writing to the airlines to whom we used to pay many dollars stating that we will not spend a dime until they force the TSA to stop this practice of rubbing our noses in the Constitution.
The TSA spin is slick, because they justify the SPOT program by the number of druggies and illegals they apprehend. And, the AFS crowd and the media that blindly supports the TSA buys this hook, line, and sinker.
Jun 6, 2013 | 8:33 pm
#300
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I posted stats (for the BDO program, not for my top secret straw-into-gold process) from 2009. The stats about which you said "I dont believe those were ever published." They aren't pretty: 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs for further investigation were found to be blameless.
If more recent statistics show an improvement, why isn't TSA pulling them out to refute the DHS IG?
Even Paul Ekman, who as GUWonder pointed out, has a vested financial interest in having the gov't use his work, said that the system "needs more study", yet TSA, in the 7 years that they've been playing SPOT, have just assumed that it works.
If more recent statistics show an improvement, why isn't TSA pulling them out to refute the DHS IG?
Even Paul Ekman, who as GUWonder pointed out, has a vested financial interest in having the gov't use his work, said that the system "needs more study", yet TSA, in the 7 years that they've been playing SPOT, have just assumed that it works.