diverg

I am hoping to book an award 1st class flight to Australia and New Zealand, and these 3 airlines are the most likely choices. With all that has gone on with the Coronavirus, which of these airlines do you think would be the safest bet? Do you think there will be big changes in service levels? For me ANA would be the most convenient as my home airport is IAH and ANA flies from there. The other two would require a positioning flight, but I'm not against doing that. My planned trip is a year from now so I'm hoping things will be back to a semblance of normalcy by then.

cockpitvisit

I think CX is way more likely to go bankrupt, because it only lives off international flights, and there will be very few of them in the upcoming months. Since they are foreign owned, I am not sure either Hong Kong or Chinese govt will come to their rescue.

Most of ANA/JAL flights are domestic flights inside Japan, they still operate, and Japan does a better job controlling the virus than most of the outside world (although they are not out of the woods yet). So in terms of a possible bankruptcy, ANA/JAL should be a safer bet.

JordanWalker

Another one of those "CX will bankrupt in a few months" post ​​​​​​​

@OP, CX does not have first class from HKG to Australia/NZ. At best you might be able to get it on your LAX-HKG leg if you were to make a positioning flight.

diverg

Yes, I am aware that on ANA and Cathay, I would only do the first leg in 1st. JAL does have a 1st class flight from HND to SYD.

Guvner067

Not until September 2020 at best.

diverg

I'm checking flights for February/March of next year. JAL has an HND-SYD 1st class flight listed. Do they have a 1st class flight to SYD now? (pre coronavirus)

Guvner067

No, They are scheduled to commence in Sept 2020 when the 777 takes over from the 787.

From RoutesOnline: Tokyo Haneda – London Heathrow JL041/042 787-8 replaced by following aircraft:
30MAR20 – 31AUG20 777-300ER (Overall 2 daily 777-300ER)
eff 01SEP20 787-9 (1 daily each 777 and 787)

Tokyo Haneda – Sydney eff 01SEP20 777-300ER replaces 787-9

diverg

Hmmm, I guess that could definitely change with the fallout from COVID-19. What is your opinion on Cathay first and business vs the other 2?

Guvner067

Which Award scheme are you looking to use? CX and JL are OneWorld. ANA is Star Alliance.. If OneWorld, why not Qantas direct out of DFW?

diverg

I currently have enough AA miles to do 1st class one way to Japan and Japan to Australia. I have enough Chase UR to do the Virgin Atlantic sweet spot to Japan. I have more then enough MR points. I would preferably like to burn my airline AA miles 1st. I would love a Qantas 1st class flight from DFW to SYD, but have not seen any award availability for that flight. Matter of fact I did see one weird routing a few months back. it was LAX-DFW-SYD. Then if I searched the same date DFW-SYD the 1st class flight wouldn't show up. Still those date were just a dummy search.

36902BRF

I think you mean Virgin Atlantic (VS) as Virgin America has ceased to be. Personally I have flown both CX and NH first class (old version) and I found of them both to be excellent. I would probably go with whichever one was cheaper/allowed me to use points I needed to burn/had my preferred schedule. If new version of NH first was in play I might have to think harder. Also as noted it is possible some airlines may not make it out of this. I consider VS and CX "higher risk" than some others. Not a huge deal but I'd probably make sure I had refundable reservations/travel insurance just in case. Keep in mind if you transfer your UR to VS and they cease operations you could very well lose your points and your tickets on NH.

eponymous_coward

You’re asking for guesses on Coronavirus impact for a year from now when the situation is literally changing daily. You might as well be asking a Ouija board or a Magic 8-ball, or asking for winning lottery numbers while you are at it. Anybody who says they know what’s going to happen is talking out their posterior. For all we know there could be a second outbreak this winter and spring 2020 in Japan that shuts NRT/HND down for transit like HKG is now. The flu pandemic outbreak for 1918-1920 had MULTIPLE outbreaks spread over those years.

Seriously? I wouldn’t bother to guess the future or make any plans that aren’t non-refundable, or prepare to eat your change fees or whatever.Get whatever booking meets your needs for scheduling, timing, hard and soft product plus availability and be prepared to have those plans change or be cancelled if visas get suspended.

diverg

Yes. I edited it. AS mentioned ANA would be the most convenient, as it would require no position flights. Lot of thoughts are flying through my head. If I choose the ANA route, I might do something like this, all assuming I found the award space.
Option 1. IAH-HND on ANA in F, HND to SYD on JAL RT, and HND-JFK if I could get the new Suite flight. then find my way back to Houston
Option 2 IAH-SYD in F and J on ANA

As you can tell, I want to fly first class one time. It'll most likely be the only time it happens.

diverg

Fully aware this crap could still be happening or in round 2 next year. I willing to eat the cost of redepositing miles etc. I look at it as a cost of doing business when you have to plan so far ahead in normal times, and these times are not normal.

eponymous_coward

My recommendation still stands: don’t try and guess the future, just pick flights that will work for you and expect you may very well have to cancel or change them. Because you would be doing JL/QF/CX flights using AA miles there are nuances to the awards you need to understand that are best addressed in their forum, not here.